Friday 20 March 2015 18:26, UK
Sky Sports rugby presenter Alex Payne looks ahead to a thrilling finale to the Six Nations, with three countries still in with a realistic chance of securing the title...
Italy v Wales, 12.30pm
Warren Gatland said in the immediate aftermath of the win over Ireland that his side will need to score 40 points against Italy to have any chance of the title.
That is no easy task given that Italy have only lost by that margin three times at home in the last decade. But hope for Welsh fans comes in the fact that all three were in the final round of this tournament.
Wales need to win by 26 points to overtake England and Ireland and they have had some big finishes to the Six Nations in recent seasons - in 2012 they beat France to claim the Grand Slam, in 2013 they smashed England to steal the title and last season they put 50 points on Scotland.
Italy were absolutely dire against France last week, are without the great Sergio Parisse and only have a six-day turnaround, so the opportunity is there for the visitors.
The big concern is that, since the last World Cup, Wales have only put more than 40 points on a side once - that game against Scotland when they had a man advantage for three quarters of the match.
Add to that the fact Wales have only scored five tries all tournament. But I think Gatland's men are at their best when there is a scenario to play to, and if France won by 29 points last week I think Wales will win by enough to take the lead in the race for the trophy. For me, Wales to win by 26-30 points is the bet at 5/1 with Sky Bet.
Italy at this stage of the season are a bit of a lottery, but they are likely to try and go for Wales up front and if you fancy a bit of fun I'd look at Francesco Minto or Mauro Bergamasco for the first try at 80/1.
With a clear day forecast for Rome, there should be profit from Welsh try scorers - George North hasn't scored yet this tournament but is 7/4 for a double, while Liam Williams offers more value at 7/2 to cross twice.
The one guy I'm going to plug though is Rhys Webb for first away try scorer at 5/1 - he's scored four tries in his last seven Tests and all of them have been the first Wales try of the game. With Wales looking for points this might be the week to play a Wales try as the first score at 15/8.
Payne's picks: Wales by 26-30 at 5/1; Rhys Webb for first away try scorer at 5/1; Wales try as the first score at 15/8. Bet now
Scotland v Ireland, 2.30pm
I think Ireland have the toughest task this weekend, picking themselves off the floor and going to Scotland where the home side are scrapping to avoid the Wooden Spoon.
Joe Schmidt admitted this week that training has been very flat in the aftermath of Cardiff and I think he has job to get his troops on their toes. Edinburgh hasn't been the happiest hunting ground for those in green recently - with only two wins from their last five trips.
It is worth remembering last week was Ireland's first loss in 11 Tests while Scotland have only won two of their last eight. The concern for Scotland will be that, although they lost at Twickenham, the final score probably flattered them with England leaving three or four tries out on the field. Ireland may not create as many chances, but I think they will be more ruthless and should come away to win by enough to put the pressure onto England. Ireland by 6-10 at 4/1 with Sky Bet.
For Ireland, Johnny Sexton has previous with tries in big games; the Lions third test, two against the French in the final round last year. He will be desperate to produce more of the same after last week and is 9/2 to go over.
Luke Fitzgerald plays his first Test in four years and is 11/4 to seal the comeback with an anytime try but my focus falls on Ireland's pack. They got the driving game got going against the Welsh last week and I think they'll try more of the same against the Scots - Jamie Heaslip has scored three against this weekend's opponents and he is also 9/2 to add to that.
The Scots have only managed two tries in their last six Six Nations games with Ireland, so no team try scorer at 5/2 catches the eye. But Stuart Hogg remains their sharpest attacking weapon at 9/2 with Sky Bet, while I also like the growing threat of Finn Russell who is 14/1 for a try.
Payne's picks: Ireland by 6-10 at 4/1; Jamie Heaslip 9/2 anytime try; Stuart Hogg 9/2 anytime try. Bet now
England v France, 5pm
So it all ends with Le Crunch. The simple view is that England are a side making progress and France are a team in turmoil, but recent games between the two have been tight.
It is three wins apiece in the last six, with England's 10-point win two years ago the biggest margin of victory - a slight concern if England have a big points difference to chase. But home form is a significant factor for England, having beaten the French in 11 of the last 13 games at Twickenham and having lost only one home Six Nations game in their last 12.
Couple this with the fact France have won just four times away from home under Phillipe Saint Andre, and it is hard to back the visitors but they will be tough to break down - they've only conceded two tries all tournament.
England have been the most attack-minded team in the tournament having scored the most tries and made the most line breaks so far and the feeling within the camp is that they're close to clicking. The intangible is the effect of England having to play to a scenario. If they have to win by 10 and France score first, then Twickenham could get very twitchy. But I think England to win by 11-15 at 9/2 and with it the trophy.
In terms of try scorers, Gael Fickou (5/1 anytime) broke English hearts last season while Yoann Huget (7/2 anytime) scored a double. But the sharpest man in attack for France last week was the hard-running full-back Scott Spedding, who seems good value at 7/1 to cross.
For England, Mike Brown scored last year from the wing and could have had two last week - the man wearing 15 for England has scored in three of the last five Six Nations games and Brown is 5/2 to add to that. But England's 13 has scored in the last three meetings and with Jonathan Joseph in the form he's in I'm going to play the centre for a 6/4 anytime try. Worth shining a light on both Brown and Joseph to score at 8/1.
So wins for Wales, Ireland and England with England to raise the trophy gives you 5/4 with Sky Bet. Good luck!
Payne's picks: England to win by 11-15 at 9/2 and win Six Nations; Jonathan Joseph anytime try 6/4; Brown and Joseph both to score at 8/1. Bet now
