Betting preview of England v Argentina, Wales v South Africa and Ireland v Australia
Friday 25 November 2016 18:38, UK
Sky Sports' Alex Payne looks for betting value ahead of this weekend's autumn internationals and expects England, Australia and Wales to come out on top.
Last weekend the Sky Sports presenter was in top form with a number of winning selections, topped by Jonathan Joseph to score England's first try against Fiji at 7/1 with Sky Bet.
Here he runs the rule over this weekend's key matches at Twickenham, the Principality Stadium and Aviva Stadium.
The form lines of these two vary hugely coming into this weekend. England are on a 12-game winning run, Argentina have lost eight of their last 10. But, despite results, Eddie Jones thought the Pumas were the second-best team in the Rugby Championship this year - and they certainly are trying to play some extremely ambitious rugby.
At their best, they pulled New Zealand all over the place for 60 minutes in Hamilton before being downed. At their most infuriating, they handed Australia the game with some reckless rugby in the final round at Twickenham.
The problem is that the Pumas seem to be running out of steam at this stage of the season - and after their narrow losses to Wales and Scotland, England should prove too strong for Argentina.
I think Dylan Hartley and his men will go up a gear this weekend and should win by 16-20 at 5/1 with Sky Bet.
England's entertainers: With 27 tries in their last 22 Tests, keep playing England wingers. But for greater value back Jonny May and Elliot Daly to both cross at 15/8. Both England wingers have scored in three of the last six games.
Puma points: Santiago Cordero has grabbed five tries in his last eight games, and is the man who catches the eye in the Argentinian backline. Cordero to score anytime is a 9/4 chance.
The challenge for Ireland this week is to refill the tank after a thunderous, draining and disappointing rematch against New Zealand.
There has been a lot of noise after the Dublin defeat, and the question is can Ireland raise themselves for one big finale to 2016?
Certainly the injuries to Johnny Sexton and Robbie Henshaw remove some of the threat, but it is worth remembering that Paddy Jackson steered Ireland to a famous win over South Africa this summer.
After a horror start to 2016, the Wallabies have now picked up six wins in eight, although several of those victories have been far from convincing. However, the team they've picked looks big, fresh and confident, and well set for the biggest challenge of the tour so far.
These two sides have been well matched in the last decade - with three wins each and a draw. And honours-even may well be worth covering at 20/1. But, if pushed for a winner, I'm going to side with Australia at 11/10.
The last few weeks have been so draining for Ireland, while the Wallabies have been quietly picking up momentum and building depth - that leads me to Ireland/Australia in the HT/FT market at 7/1.
Irish inspiration: The Wallabies have been conceding a lot of tries through their centres - six in the last five games. Garry Ringrose has looked comfortable in international rugby, and is my tip at 5/1 to improve that stat. Popping a pound on Rory Best to celebrate his 100th cap with a try at 11/2 may also be worth considering.
Three in three: Australia have also been scoring a lot through their centres of late - nine tries in their last eight games. Tevita Kuridrani has scored three in his last three, and is 3/1 to score another one against Ireland.
Rugby has, thankfully, got a way to go before it matches up with the wobbly job-security of football management, but this game certainly has the feelings of a coach's nightmare.
Wales have been ripped apart in their own media for their form this autumn, but that is nothing compared to the lashing the Boks have had back at home after defeat to Italy. It is one of those games that makes for compelling viewing, if only to answer the question - just how bad can it get?
South Africa look shot. Their captain, Adriaan Strauss is retiring after this game, coach Allister Coetzee will be lucky to remain in charge and the selection of three debutants to save the situation seems an extraordinary decision.
While Wales have played poorly, they have at least won their last two games. Add to that the huge advantage they have in terms of experience, and I think those in red will defy history (only two wins in 110 years) and should come through to beat the five-point handicap at 10/11.
North wind: After a blistering Six Nations and first Test in New Zealand, the tries have dried up for George North. He did score a double on his debut against the Boks and, up against debutant Jamba Ulengo, is 13/2 to grab another two.
Debutant to shine: Keep an eye on Rohan Janse van Rensburg. The young centre is a tank of a 12 and was the second joint top try-scorer in Super Rugby this season. He could be one of the building blocks for a new South Africa and is 3/1 for a debut try.
England, Wales & Australia all to win at 5/2
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