Lydia Hislop's horse-by-horse guide to Saturday's Investec Derby
Thursday 30 May 2013 11:00, UK
With only days to go until the Investec Derby, all the evidence is before us. We just need to read it correctly.
CHOPINA highly interesting German contender, whose connections paid a premium to add him to the field. He was an impressive winner of a Group Three over an extended mile last time. While his dam was a strong stayer, his sire proved best at a mile on turf and provides some doubt about the suitability of this trip. Yet Chopin himself runs like he'll get at least ten furlongs comfortably. The ground will be the fastest he has encountered, but his galloping action suggests that's a definite plus. LIBERTARIAN
Unraced at two, he's a fast learner and sprang a 33/1 shock in the Dante, traditionally the deepest of the British trials. His response to pressure was taking and positive, but he was outpaced and under that pressure from a long way out, which risks him losing his pitch in the Derby. He got a tad unbalanced at Pontefract, admittedly on his racecourse debut, so Epsom's terrain is a concern for this strong-framed horse. If he can keep tabs on the principals in the heat of the race, he's sure to be staying on strongly at the finish. MARS
He ran a superb race for a horse having just his second career start in the 2000 Guineas, not enduring a hard race for a classic, and will surely improve. He was gawky and green in both paddock and race, edging left in the Dip. That raises some doubts about Epsom. You can strenuously craft an argument for him staying the trip - his mum hails from a family of extremes of stamina - but she was a sprinter and her best offspring a miler. Mars' form with Dawn Approach means he doesn't just need to stay but to improve at a mile and a half. MIRSAALE
The only real runner with prior racing experience of this idiosyncratic track, he handled it fluently and that will buy him position. He's not the biggest but looked backward in April, so there's physical improvement in him. As a half-brother to the disqualified 2010 Oaks runner-up and 2011 Park Hill Stakes winner Meeznah, he's bred to improve for an extra two furlongs. Rain would disadvantage him. Better than a 66/1 shot. GALILEO ROCK
Another over-priced outsider. Lightly raced, progressing with every start and certain to improve for the step up in trip, he would have won Sandown's Classic Trial in another half-furlong. However, he lacks tactical speed and is likely to lose his position on the descent before staying on, all too late, in the straight. This half-brother to Saddler's Rock might emerge from the Derby as favourite for the St Leger, though. FESTIVE CHEER
One of the Aidan O'Brien army and a possible pace pawn to ensure the Derby isn't so steadily run as to advantage Dawn Approach. He took time to get going last time but does stay, so a positive ride would suit his own chances best. Improving but not good enough. FLYING THE FLAG
Beautifully bred but not yet delivering. There are stamina doubts on the dam side and he still looks a bit too raw for formidable Epsom. OCEAN APPLAUSE
Doesn't handle the track, won't stay and nowhere near good enough. Otherwise, an excellent choice of target. Later this week I'll examine where and how the Investec Derby will be won and lost on the day and give my idea of the winner.