Cheltenham Festival day four tips: Santini can strike Gold for Nicky Henderson
Buildmeupbuttercup, Janidil, Santini, Croco Bay and Solo are the ones to be backing on day four
Friday 13 March 2020 08:10, UK
It's been a profitable week for Jones Knows followers with +31 points made from the selections - let's see if we can end the Cheltenham Festival with a bang.
I told myself when SANTINI (9/2 with Sky Bet) crossed the line in the RSA Chase last season that we'd just seen the 2020 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner and 12 months on, I'm still very much singing from the same hymn sheet.
Last season's staying novices have shown themselves to be a top class bunch which leaves the favourite Al Boum Photo - who still to my eye doesn't jump like a Gold Cup winner - vulnerable in terms of defending his crown.
Santini's season has been building to this moment.
His win in the Cotswold Chase, beating last year's third Bristol De Mai, was a truly run affair that had many of his rivals gasping for air turning for home.
It was a true test at the trip and Santini came out with his reputation enhanced, pulling clear of the Nigel Twiston-Davies runner in the style of a horse who is going to relish the stamina-sapping test of a Gold Cup. I'm confidently rowing in on his chances with each-way stakes as Sky Bet are paying the first five places as long as 10 or more runners go to post.
Backing French-bred runners in four-year-old races is an angle that always gets my punting juices flowing. Those bred across the English Channel are notoriously more precocious and the two juvenile races at Cheltenham bring positive numbers for backers of horses that started their careers in France. Nine of the last 16 winners of the Fred Winter ticked the French box while three of the last five winners of the Triumph Hurdle had the same profile.
French-bred SOLO (3/1 with Sky Bet) became Britain's highest-rated novice after earning a mark of 157 for his 13-length victory in the Grade Two Adonis Hurdle on his debut for Paul Nicholls and although his price is skinny enough, I think he's the most likely winner of the Triumph at 1:30 with improvement to come. Goshen looks a horse of supreme talent but is unbackable at the prices due to his exuberant nature and lack of experience at graded level. Allmankind certainly brings stronger claims than Goshen and has course form to his name but Solo might just be quite special.
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The County Hurdle at 2:10 is a race where the first thing punters need to look for is the ability for a horse to travel powerfully from off the pace. Amazingly, 21 of the last 22 runnings of this have been won by hold up horses due to the long, tiring straight where jockeys push the button too soon over the two-mile trip over hurdles.
The Willie Mullins trained BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP (16/1 with Sky Bet - paying six places) is a sketchy jumper but is a mare full of class, as seen by her exploits on the flat where she finished second in the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot. Her latest run at Leopardstown was an impressive effort. She travelled with her usual zest and perhaps hit the front too soon as she was mugged late on and slightly hampered when finishing fifth. Expect a few hairy moments over the timber but that doesn't worry me in a race where jumping isn't really the most important attribute. She looks a fantastic wager with Sky Bet paying six places each way.
The Irish dominated the finish in the Neptune Investments Novices Hurdle on Wednesday and they are backed to do the same in the Albert Bartlett at 2:50. Thyme Hill is the leading British hope but he looks woefully short in the market on what he's achieved, plus, the Phillip Hobbs yard haven't fired this week.
I like the profile of JANIDIL (12/1 with Sky Bet) for the Mullins yard in that he's a second season novice that has been there and done it in handicap company. Six of the last 15 winners of this contest have had an extra season as a novice and that experience is crucial in a race of this staying nature that isn't the faint-hearted. The selection put up a strong finishing sectional when bolting up at Fairyhouse in December and looks certain to relish this test.
Greaneteen could be miles ahead of the handicapper in the Grand Annual at 4:50 but his price makes it easy to let him win. I'd rather side with a horse that's been there and done it in this kind of race, so CROCO BAY (25/1 with Sky Bet) will be carrying my cash as he bids to go back-to-back at the age of 13. His recent run at Doncaster showed that the fire still burns bright and he always saves his best run of the season for the Cheltenham Festival.
Staking plan:
- 3pts EW on BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP (16/1 with Sky Bet) at 2:10
- 3pts EW on SANTINI (9/2 with Sky Bet) at 3:30
- 2pts EW on JANIDIL (12/1 with Sky Bet) at 2:50
- 2pts on SOLO (3/1 with Sky Bet) at 1:30
- 1pt EW on CROCO BAY (25/1 with Sky Bet) at 4:50
Discipline is absolutely key to making the Festival a hopefully profitable and enjoyable one. Four days of punting is a slog and emotions will run high and low on the Cheltenham rollercoaster. Stick to your plan, only bet what you can afford to lose and never go chasing after suffering a bad beat. With all the emotion surging around, it's easy to forget to enjoy the spectacle. It's another year before it all starts again - remember to enjoy the ride.
