Auguste Rodin headlines a star-studded field for Saturday's Breeders' Cup Turf; Aidan O'Brien also runs Broome and Bolshoi Ballet; Frankie Dettori rides Champion Stakes winner King Of Steel, whilst Mostahdaf runs for Jim Crowley
Tuesday 31 October 2023 14:59, UK
Sky Sports Racing pundit Peter Fornatale has cast his eye on Saturday's Breeders' Cup Turf, a race dominated by European challengers in recent years.
Watch the 2023 Breeders' Cup from Santa Anita live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 519) on Friday 3rd and Saturday 4th November.
SHAHRYAR
Jockey: C Demuro | Trainer: H Fujiwara
Beat 2021 Turf hero Yibir in the Group 1 Sheema Classic last year but didn't really kick on from that, although his second in the Japan Cup is solid form. Has cut little ice in two starts this year, including last time out when he was beaten 20 lengths in a Grade 2. Could revive, but plenty to prove now.
ONESTO
M Guyon | F Chappet
Onesto is a most interesting item to me. The 2022 Grand Prix de Paris winner probably hasn't won the races his ability says he should have, but a closer look suggests there is a bit more to that than meets the eye. He was a bit unlucky not to beat Luxembourg in the 2022 Irish Champion on ground softer than ideal, and got completely bogged down next time in the Arc before catching the eye in the Japan Cup.
Under similar conditions to those he'll get at Santa Anita, he was stopped in his run when attempting to close up the inside, after which he was not hard pushed to finish seventh. This year, he ran a fine race behind Inspiral and Big Rock on his return to action over an inadequate mile in the Marois, and was again stopped at a crucial stage in the Irish Champion Stakes when once more attempting a daring inside run.
Most recently, he finished a superb third in the Arc. Held up off a steady pace, he wasn't quite able to go with the brilliant Ace Impact, but actually ran the final 3f in the same time (a rapid 33.06) and ran the fastest final furlong of the entire field, dipping below 11 seconds. That is arguably the best form on offer here and the Arc has been a notable trial for the Turf over the years - he looks too big at current odds.
GOLD PHOENIX
Juan Hernandez | Philip D Amato
This is a fun horse, a hard tryer who won a Grade 1 in the Kilroe over this course back in March. He's earned his way here with his overall body of work but was tenth in this race last year at 40-1 and this is a much tougher group of international runners.
BOLSHOI BALLET
John Velazquez | A P O'Brien
Posted a final time figure last time - 107 - that's just one point under the par for this race but he still finds himself a big longshot here. Part of that is because he earned that figure on soft ground against inferior competition in a race that was run entirely to suit. I don't think he'll have nearly as easy a time of it here.
AUGUSTE RODIN
R L Moore | A P O'Brien
Auguste Rodin is a mercurial horse who has either bombed out or won on his starts this season. He does have excuses for his bad runs and his form looks fairly solid now that King Of Steel has come out and won the Champion Stakes at Ascot. Has done very little wrong when left-handed on decent ground - winning the Epsom Derby and Irish Champion Stakes under such conditions - and that seems to be very much the key to him.
He is likely to go off favourite, which is probably more based off reputation and trainer, as I think he probably has a couple of pounds to find on form. With that said, he is a very talented horse and likely has the scope to improve again.
GET SMOKIN
Fernando Cruz La De | Mark Casse
Managed to stretch his speed to 12 furlongs in the Grade 2 Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs, fully taking advantage of how the track was playing. I don't see similar tactics working here with other speed signed on, including a likely pacemaker. If they keep him around for his seven-year-old campaign, as I presume they will, he could win some more valuable prizes in North America for sure. Backers should get a good run for their money.
BROOME
D McMonagle | A P O'Brien
Would appear to be a pacemaker for his two stablemates and Auguste Rodin in particular looks like the one whom his presence will benefit. I can't see a logical case to make for him on his own this year and he may not be fast enough early to lay a glove on Get Smokin.
UP TO THE MARK
Irad Ortiz Jr | Todd Pletcher
Looked like a major player for this race in the spring, only to be sidelined in the summer. His return to the races at Keeneland was tremendous as he gutted out a win against a talented rival in Master Of The Seas in a good time figure. He's really supposed to move forward from that.
On the downside, there's nothing saying he really wants to run 12 furlongs. He may be a horse simply caught between distances. He's a player, but he has his work cut out for him. I'd have placed him in the Mile.
MOSTAHDAF
Jim Crowley | J & T Gosden
Mostahdaf is a very talented horse capable of big efforts on his best day. Formlines through Luxembourg and Nashwa - who he has beaten when winning his last two races, the second of which was in the Group 1 Juddmonte International - suggest he is better than Auguste Rodin, and you can probably forgive his run behind Equinox when he tried to mix it with the Japanese megastar.
Alternatively, you could argue he didn't stay there, and that would be a concern here. His top-class form is over 10 furlongs and his sole win over 12 came in a Group 3 on synthetics where they walked around and sprinted. He probably does stay this distance, particularly around a track like this, but there must be a doubt about whether he can produce his peak form over this trip. A major contender but not one without questions.
ADHAMO
Flavien Prat | Chad Brown
Got his coveted Grade 1 win last summer in the United Nations at Monmouth and briefly looked like a horse who would be a major player, at least domestically, in the older turf division. Since then, his form has regressed, and even his best run might not be good enough against a field like this.
KING OF STEEL
L Dettori | R Varian
Is a very talented beast who ran an incredible race first time up in the Epsom Derby, touched off by Auguste Rodin but pulling well clear of the rest. The cards didn't really fall his way in a couple of Group 1s since, but he put that right last time with a gritty win in the British Champion Stakes under a fine ride from Dettori.
Shouldn't have any trouble going back up in distance, or switching back to faster ground, and he doesn't have much to find with Auguste Rodin - he was a length behind him in the Irish Champion Stakes but was not seen to best effect there. The only downside is that he did have a hard race just two weeks ago so it remains to be seen what form he's in on race day.
BALLADEER
Victor Espinoza | George Papaprodromou
Got a Grade 2 win last time, leading all the way going 10 furlongs against a considerably easier field. In addition to the obvious distance and class questions, he's also going to have to deal with a pacemaker in the form of Broome and a horse with more speed in Get Smokin. Seems very unlikely he'll be able to make the frame.
WAR LIKE GODDESS
Junior Alvarado | William Mott
Demolished the field in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, coming from out of it to win by basically as much as she wanted. We know she fits with the best North American males, but what about the internationals? That's where it gets tough. Last year she was three lengths behind Rebel's Romance, and I'd count the top three in the market here as all significantly better than him. I love her as a horse, but think she'd do well to run third or fourth against these.
PETER FORNATALE'S VERDICT
I think ONESTO looks the clear value of the race and you can try to lock up the exacta with him, Auguste Rodin, and Mostahdaf.
