Hold The Note, Epatante, Fiddlerontheroof and Brewin'upastorm all of interest on day one
Tuesday 10 March 2020 19:21, UK
The time for talking is over as the tapes go up at the Cheltenham Festival on Tuesday. After recording 73 points of profit last year, our resident tipster Jones Knows is back to help you find a pathway to the winners.
When the tapes go up in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at 1:30, we roar. And, to my eye, the first horse reaching the winning post a few minutes later will be FIDDLERONTHEROOF (11/2 with Sky Bet). I got wind of the high esteem this horse was held in at Colin Tizzard's early in the season, backing him at 16/1 for the Persian War at Chepstow only for him to finish an agonising second. Oh life can be cruel.
The form of that event reads excellently with the winner Thyme Hill now favourite for the Albert Bartlett on Friday and the selection has improved into a leading novice himself, winning the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown in impressive fashion. The time of that victory reads well and Tizzard's youngster showed he possesses the pace for a test like the Supreme to go along with his slick jumping and ability to find plenty off the bridle.
The horse I'm seriously looking forward to roaring home today is HOLD THE NOTE (7/1 with Sky Bet) in the Northern Trust Company Novices' Handicap Chase at 4:50. He's my best bet on the card.
This is a handicap in name only as the weights are so compressed that this is really just a conditions race, which means finding the best horse rather than the best handicapped one usually leads you to the winner. That was the case with A Plus Tard last season, who gave me one of my all-time Festival highs when he romped home. This year's selection has a similar profile.
Like A Plus Tard, Mick Channon's horse was beaten in a Graded chase last time out when just getting edged out in the Hampton Novices' Chase at Warwick. That was a fine effort, in a race run at serious fractions and one that produced a very strong time figure. The form is worth respecting, especially in what is technically a step down in class for Hold The Note. Always held in the highest regard by his connections, the six-year-old may still be a maiden over fences but that shouldn't put you off. His attitude is spot on and maidens have a strong record in this contest with three winning and eight placing in the last 12 years.
EPATANTE (4/1 with Sky Bet) has been knocked about on the Cheltenham preview circuit more than Deontay Wilder was a few weeks back, yet she is the most likely winner of the Champion Hurdle at 3:30. In a race lacking strength in depth, she brings genuine Grade One-winning form to the table from her imperious showing in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.
Ask yourself this: if Nicky Henderson's charge had won the Mares Novices' Hurdle last season, what price would she be now? I'd say near 6/4, yet the reason her price is inflated is because of that Festival run. But it's easy to excuse that performance. Epatante wore a first-time hood that day which I don't think she took to. Traditionally, hurdlers wearing first-time hoods in top-class races have a very poor record. I'm forgiving enough to let that Cheltenham run slide and trust in Henderson to deliver her on the big stage.
I'm convinced BREWIN'UPASTORM (11/2 with Sky Bet) is the most talented horse in the Racing Post Arkle Chase at 2:10 but my enthusiasm is tempered slightly by his lack of experience over fences and whether he can jump quick enough to keep tabs on his rivals in what is likely to be a ferociously-run affair. His run in the Neptune last season is the best form on offer in terms of hurdle form in this race and finding the best hurdler usually pays dividends despite this being over the larger obstacles. He gets the nod although he comes with risks at these sorts of prices.
Course form is crucial at the best of times at Cheltenham but especially in big-field handicaps. This is my angle in the Ultima Handicap Chase at 2:50 where THE CONDITIONAL (9/1 with Sky Bet) simply has to go close if keeping up his consistent performance level this season. With Sky Bet paying six places, he's a strong fancy.
He looked a horse well ahead of his mark when landing a competitive handicap - similar to this one - at the course in November and arrived here only 8lbs higher in the weights. The market usually is a good guide in this event as 15 of the 19 winners starting 11/1 or shorter, so I've got confidence in following David Bridgwater's fancied runner.
I'm keen to take on the hotpot Carefully Selected in the National Hunt Chase due to his lack of respect for fences - he's bound to belt a few on the way round and when you consider his price, it's not my idea of a fun experience. It's worth taking a chance on the battle-hardened LORD DU MESNIL (7/1 with Sky Bet) in a race that usually needs a warrior with plenty of heart.
I'll be in the bar for the Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle as a personal protest against the race which takes away quality from the Champion Hurdle. It's a no bet race for me with Benie Des Dieux and Honeysuckle both priced accordingly at the head of the market.
Good luck, comrades.
Staking plan:
Discipline is absolutely key to making the Festival a hopefully profitable and enjoyable one. Four days of punting is a slog and emotions will run high and low on the Cheltenham rollercoaster. Stick to your plan, only bet what you can afford to lose and never go chasing after suffering a bad beat. With all the emotion surging around, it's easy to forget to enjoy the spectacle. It's another year before it all starts again - remember to enjoy the ride.
