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Friday 1 November 2024 18:24, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League card and tips up a 14/1 accumulator as part of his best bets.
The last thing Arsenal need is a match with huge needle potential right now.
Red cards are threatening to ruin their season already with three of them flashed in their direction and this fixture has always flirted with boiling over - whether it would be Newcastle ending Arsenal's top-four bid in 2022 or a controversial VAR call last year.
"Desgracia," as a famous man once said.
This game could head down the same explosive path with cards to the fore.
Premier League games this season are averaging 55 booking points per 90 as referees are taking a stricter line with players delaying a restart and dissent.
Sky Bet have 50+ booking points (10 for a yellow, 25 for red) priced up at 4/7 so there's no angle there but Kai Havertz is a runner to be carded at 100/30.
Despite making 23 fouls this season across all competitions he has yet to be carded but is a player that does usually attract the attention of the referees. He was booked in eight of his last 14 starts last season. One is due.
Sign me up for the Bournemouth double chance please at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
My quest to turn a profit from Man City's potential drop-off in results moved in the right direction in midweek with Tottenham inflicting just City's second defeat in their last 50 games across all competitions.
The market saw it coming too as Spurs went off favourites for that clash - a remarkable occurrence considering City have gone off favourites in the betting markets for their last 284 Premier League matches.
But performances are on the wane and the injury list isn't making life easier for Pep Guardiola.
Bournemouth possess the punch, intensity and speed on the break to run all over what is an ageing City midfield - and that should pave the way for another positive result for them against a top-six side, following on from beating Arsenal and drawing with Aston Villa.
No team have registered more fast breaks (59) and more shots from fast breaks (54) in the Premier League since start of last season than Andoni Iraola's men, who possess the required blueprint to beat this City team.
Battles down at the bottom lend themselves to a high goal count when assessing matches of that nature since the start of last season. In games involving teams that were relegated - or two of Leicester, Southampton and Ipswich - there have been 31 goals scored in eight matches, meaning the goal average is at 3.8.
This high goal count stems from the fact both teams are going out to win. The six-pointer is a bit of cliché but it rings true in terms of the importance it has on a season.
Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals is a shade of odds-on at 10/11 with Sky Bet but should give punters a great run.
Brighton's defence has looked very shaky of late, conceding two or more goals in five of their last six games, and Liverpool are expected to find routes to goal at Anfield. Things are becoming more open defensively than Fabian Hurzeler would like as their expected goals against numbers are now just the 13th best in the Premier League (13.86) after what was a very impressive start to the season.
A way to boost the Liverpool win price from 4/11 to a more backable one is to add Cody Gakpo to score into the mix to get that price to 7/4 with Sky Bet.
He ran Brighton ragged on Tuesday night off the left flank, cutting in with devastating effect to score two goals. Arne Slot took him off with 20 minutes to go, obviously resting his legs to unleash him again at Anfield. He can hurt Brighton again.
As this excellent piece by Adam Bate outlines, Nottingham Forest allow their opponent to enter their defensive third more than any other side and yet concede among the fewest chances in the Premier League. This style of play is working a charm for Nuno Espirito Santo but it's this ploy of defending deep that is allowing opposition to post some attractive corner counts against them. Forest have conceded 6.2 corners per game this season.
And that angle is backable here with West Ham fancied to clear the line set by Sky Bet of five or more at 8/11. The introduction of Crysencio Summerville to the West Ham starting XI should help boost their corner winning ability as the winger likes to drive to the by-line. Only Jack Clarke (76) won more corners last season in the Championship than Summerville (65) and he's already won four corners for the Hammers in just 200 minutes of action.
Backing a low scoring game when Everton play a team towards the bottom of the Premier League table is a very profitable betting strategy.
In Everton's last eight fixtures against teams that finished the season in the bottom six or were newly promoted this season the under 2.5 goals line has landed on each occasion for punters. In those eight games there have been just 12 goals scored.
Interestingly, Everton avoided defeat in all eight of those matches, too. And this was a trend we correctly landed on for the Toffees trip to Ipswich earlier this season - a game they won 2-0.
It therefore makes perfect sense to follow those trends here and combine Everton on the double chance and under 2.5 goals through the Bet Builder to generate a 13/8 shot with Sky Bet. The bet gives us lots of likely correct scorelines on our side.
A win is coming for Wolves.
Gary O'Neil has worked out a defensive formula, switching to a back five, that has made them harder to score against and this should be able to frustrate Crystal Palace.
Yes, back-to-back wins against Tottenham and Aston Villa is impressive but this is a team that will struggle to score goals moving forward. Palace officially have the worst attack in the league so far this season - they have scored the fewest goals, posses the worst shot conversation and create the lowest-quality chances.
Oliver Glasner's teams are always competitive though and fine margin scorelines are usually at play.
In nine Palace games this season where one of the teams has won, that winning margin has been by one goal.
That'll do Wolves just nicely so dutching stakes on Wolves to win 1-0 at 15/2 with Sky Bet and 2-1 at 8/1 is a sensible betting strategy.
I'm absolutely bouncing to be able to get 10/11 with Sky Bet on Aston Villa avoiding defeat.
This Tottenham team still are a great watch but not one to take seriously when it comes to challenging for top honours.
The opposite can be said of Aston Villa, who aren't overly flamboyant but boy are they efficient and posses a streetwise manager in Unai Emery. Tottenham have lost nine of their last 16 Premier League games - only Wolves (12) have lost more since mid-April and the injury to Micky van de Ven only weakens them further.
If you take Man City out of the equation and just include Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal, Emery has lost two of his last 12 away days against those teams and has beaten Spurs twice at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with Villa.
Emery can celebrate his 53rd birthday on Sunday with a victory that should mean he's in for a good evening.
Cole Palmer has been getting some special treatment of late, in that teams have decided on a method to stop him. To kick him, basically.
It's merited too as he is the most dangerous man on planet Premier League, grabbing 45 goal involvements since the start of last season - no player has more. Nope, not even Erling Haaland.
Palmer has been fouled 19 times in his last six starts, which is a huge spike on where those numbers were last season. His fouls won data has risen from 0.89 fouls won per 90 from last season to 2.44 fouls won per game this season. These are Palmer's fouls won numbers from his last six starts: 4-5-1-3-3-3.
Palmer is 13/8 with Sky Bet to be fouled three times.
I like Fulham at the prices here with Evens on offer from Sky Bet.
Marco Silva's side have surprised me in the way they've adapted without João Palhinha. They might even be a better team this season without him, although that's not shown in the actual points return of 12 from their nine games. However, when you dig a little deeper into the underlying numbers it paints a very shiny picture where Fulham should actually be third in the Premier League when it comes to Sky Sports' expected goals table of dominance.
And that is shown by the fact they've won the expected goals battle in their last 10 matches across all competitions, including in defeats at Manchester City and Aston Villa. All this evidence shows that Fulham are putting in consistent performance levels, are restricting teams with their defensive process and creating good chances at the other end.
I've got them finishing the season much higher than Brentford, who are such poor travellers, losing 14 of their last 18 Premier League games on the road.
