England hammer Oman in Antigua to take net run-rate above Scotland's and will qualify for T20 World Cup Super 8s if they beat Namibia in final game and Scotland lose to Australia - but rain or some unlikely Aussie skulduggery could yet cost them in the Caribbean...
Saturday 15 June 2024 07:56, UK
England's T20 World Cup title defence has been ignited after a blink-and-you'll-miss-it win over Oman, with Jos Buttler's men reaching their target of 48 in just 19 balls.
So, what does that mean for their Super 8s chances, and what can stop them making the second round in the Caribbean?
Win and hope.
The scale of their victory over Oman means England no longer have to realistically worry about net run-rate knocking them out.
With that statistic receiving a huge hike from -1.80 to +3.08, and now above Scotland's +2.164, if the teams end up locked on five points, England will almost certainly advance via net run-rate.
So a win over Namibia in Antigua on Saturday (6pm UK) will be enough for Buttler's side - provided Scotland are beaten by already-qualified Australia in St Lucia (1.30am, Sunday).
Plenty.
Firstly, we should not discount Namibia pulling off an upset against England as we have seen surprise results in this tournament so far, none more so than USA beating Pakistan.
England could also be done over by the weather as a washout in Antigua and/or St Lucia would leave them below Scotland on points accrued and facing an early exit.
We should remember, too, that Scotland are a darn good side and more than capable of beating Australia. They plundered 90-0 from 10 overs against England before the Barbados rain last week with openers George Munsey and Michael Jones impressing.
And then we have the prospect of some Australian skulduggery…
That's right, Australia could still wreck things for England.
With qualification assured and no points carried over to the next stage, Australia may opt to rest players against Scotland.
The Aussies already know, too, which Super 8 pool they will be in - to help with scheduling, the eight seeded sides were told which group they would be in ahead of time should they advance - so there is nothing on the line for the 2021 champions.
Seam bowler Josh Hazlewood also floated the idea that it was in Australia's "best interest" to eliminate an outfit as strong as England to avoid potentially facing them in the semi-finals or final, suggesting his men could attempt a go-slow chase to keep Scotland's net run-rate above England's.
However, with that scenario now over thanks to Buttler's boys' thumping win over Oman, the only way Australia can scupper England is by losing - and it is hard to see any sporting side, let alone an Australian one, chucking in the towel in that manner.
If they were found guilty of manipulating the result by the ICC, then captain Mitchell Marsh could receive up to a two-game ban, as well as a financial punishment, so it would appear unlikely to happen…
England play Namibia in Antigua from 6pm on Saturday (UK and Ireland time), with Scotland's game against Australia in St Lucia starting at 1.30am on Sunday as Group B concludes.
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