US Open key questions: Gigi Salmon dissects the draws with Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff in the mix
Gigi Salmon dissects the men's and women's draws ahead of the US Open; who will the presenter pick as her winners for the titles in New York?; watch the US Open live on Sky Sports Tennis and Sky Sports+, streaming service NOW and the Sky Sports app
Sunday 30 August 2026 11:17, UK
The US Open, of all the four slams, is notoriously the hardest to predict the winners of as it falls at a time of year when eight months into the season the players are more likely than not nursing aches and pains with their bodies battered from the grind of the tour.
It's also played on a surface where more players fancy their chances; many have love-hate relationships with clay and grass but hard courts are their bread and butter.
The US Open is now a three-week event, week one is fan week, which this year saw five-time champion Roger Federer return for an exhibition, Karolina Muchova and Jakub Mensik win their first Grand Slam title after being crowned mixed doubles champions - in a competition that saw a return to Flushing Meadows of six-time champion Serena Williams - and the qualifying competition, which started with 15 Brits in the draw.
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The main draw starts on Sunday and contains nine Brits, with a record five coming through qualifying. The men's competition is headed up by Sascha Zverev in the absence of Jannik Sinner [knee injury] and the women's by world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka.
In terms of questions to be asked, there are five main ones...
- How will the wrist of returning champion Carlos Alcaraz hold up under the pressure of best-of-five-set Grand Slam play?
- Will 39-year-old Novak Djokovic finally get his hands on Grand Slam title No 25?
- Can an American finally win the men's title in New York? The last to do it was Andy Roddick in 2003.
- Can Aryna Sabalenka make history and win the US Open title for a third consecutive year? It's something that hasn't been done since Serena Williams in 2012-14.
- And maybe more importantly... who will end the tournament as world No 1, with four players in the running?
If we break down the draws starting with the men, the top half is headed up in the absence of Sinner by Zverev, top seed at a Grand Slam for the first time and with a major title under his belt having won the French Open earlier this year.
The draw has been kind to the German, who will fancy his chances and comes into the tournament with an 18-2 record at Grand Slam level this year.
The question, as always, is how will he cope with the pressure having fallen early in both Masters 1000 events in the lead-up as the top seed.
Working from top to bottom, the second quarter is headed up by the Australian and sixth seed Alex de Minaur, projected to meet Zverev in the quarter-finals. He might not have Djokovic or Alcaraz in his section but he does have former finalist Taylor Fritz, French Open finalist Flavio Cobolli and last year's semi-finalist Felix Auger-Aliassime.
The bottom half is absolutely stacked and features all five former US Open champions in Alcaraz, Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic.
Working our way down next up is Djokovic's quarter, which features Medvedev, finalist in Cincinnati Francis Tiafoe, finalist in Canada Brandon Nakashima, and a second-round meeting with one of Wawrinka or Matteo Berrettini. That's before any talk of a meeting with Alcaraz - the defending champion who heads up the final quarter.
The seeds in the Alcaraz section include winner in Canada, Ben Shelton, winner in Cincinnati, Arthur Fils, Alexander Bublik, Tommy Paul and big-hitting Roman Safiullin, who has beaten him before and is, for me, one of his toughest tests for the Spaniard having not played a singles match since April.
Into the women's draw with each quarter containing very different stories...
The main story involving Sabalenka in the first quarter who is not only looking to try and become the first woman since Serena Williams to win three consecutive US Open titles but she's also trying to hold on to the world No 1 ranking.
On paper her draw isn't too bad until the quarter-finals, where she could face Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova.
The worry is Sabalenka's lack of form going 17-7 since April and not having won a title since March. She is without a Grand Slam title so far in 2026 and is looking vulnerable.
The second quarter is headlined by Jessica Pegula who is in contention to end the tournament as world No 1. For that to happen, the former finalist would need to win the title; nothing less would do.
Dangers lie around every corner for Pegula with Elina Svitolina, Karolina Muchova and Sorana Cirstea in her section and a second-round meeting with one of former Australian Open Champion Sofia Kenin or two-time US Open Champion Venus Williams.
Former US Open champion and current Cincinnati champion Coco Gauff heads up the top of the bottom half; she also has a chance of reaching world No 1, but only if she wins the title.
Lying in wait for her in the third quarter are last year's finalist Amanda Anisimova, French Open Champion Mirra Andreeva, Washington champion Alex Eala, and a potentially tricky early meeting with Paula Badosa.
And finally, to what surely is the toughest quarter of the draw with Elena Rybakina, Iga Swaitek, Naomi Osaka, Madison Keys and Belinda Bencic.
Rybakina will be the new world No 1 if she reaches the semi-finals, that is in her hands. What isn't is the left ankle/Achilles injury that she has been managing for a while, but flared up in Cincinnati forcing her to withdraw in her match against Swiatek. She has looked tentative in practice, so only time will tell if it will hold up to allow her to reach world No 1 for the first time in her career.
What about British interest?
When it comes to the Brits, a word on Arthur Fery, who in his second tournament since reaching the semi-finals of Wimbledon this summer, reached the final of Winston-Salem - losing out to third seed Ignacio Buse in the title decider.
Perfect preparation for Fery who has had a whirlwind summer and now heads to New York as the British No 1 thanks to that run.
The Brit will be making his debut at the US Open and it's a tough one up against 13th seed Lorenzo Musetti.
Musetti recently found some form in Cincinnati but isn't long back from a back injury, so Fery will fancy his chances.
Fery sits in the top quarter draw with top seed Zverev. Also in that section is Jan Choinski, who takes on the Dutchman Botic Van De Zandschulp.
And the other Brit to qualify on ranking is Cameron Norrie, who is in the bottom half with Alcaraz. He is the 29th seed and faces the Frenchman Luca van Assche, for the right to take on Miomir Kecmanovic or Dennis Shapovalov in round two.
In total, there are nine Brits in the main draw and for the first time at the US Open five having come through qualifying.
Among them is Toby Samuel, the world No 110, who will make his US Open main draw debut, with the 23-year-old having drawn the Czech Tomas Machac, the world No 58.
Harry Wendleken is also set for his debut after playing nine sets and nine hours to reach the main draw, and his reward is the 21st seed Luciano Darderi. Jacob Fearnley, in as a lucky loser for his second US Open appearance, will take on the Spaniard Martin Landaluce.
In the women's draw, Katie Boulter was the only direct entrant and has been handed a good first round up against the American wild card Carol Young Suh Lee.
Lee is 24, sitting at her career-high ranking of 140, and will be making her Grand Slam main draw debut.
Should Boulter win, then more than likely she will face US Open mixed doubles champion and Wimbledon finalist Karolina Muchova in round two.
Joining Boulter through the qualifying route is Harriet Dart, who beat Heather Watson in the final round to set up a meeting with the American and world No 54 Peyton Stearns, who she recently played and lost to in Cincinnati, but did beat the American in US Open qualifying in 2021.
And Fran Jones, who for a second year running has secured qualification into the main draw where she will face Magda Linette of Poland in what will be a first meeting between the two.
Serena will return...
Also a reminder that we haven't seen the last of Serena Williams at the US Open this year.
After playing with Alcaraz in the mixed doubles she is teaming up with sister Venus in the doubles after getting a wild card.
The two-time US Open doubles champions last played a Grand Slam together in 2022 at Flushing Meadows.
And just a word on the prize money, which has risen again this year: the men's and women's singles champions will get $5.5m (£4.7m) each and for reaching the first round it's a guaranteed $140,000 (£120,000).
And the winners are?
I have left it as late as possible, and I'm still not convinced, but for who's going to win.
I will say Zverev to win his second Grand Slam title. It was tough to go against him once I saw what looks like a very favourable draw and for the women I am going outside of those who could end the tournament as world No 1 and pick Naomi Osaka to win her third US Open and first here since 2020.
From Sunday, the Sky Sports Tennis team will be back together for 15 days of wall-to-wall action with every ball of every match on every court available for you to enjoy.
Hear from Martin Navratilova, Tim Henman, Marion Bartoli, Laura Robson, Ryan Harrison and Naomi Broady to name just a few.
We look forward to your company this Sunday from 3pm live from New York.
The US Open is live on Sky Sports from August 30. Stream tennis with no contract on NOW and the Sky Sports App. You can also watch the Laver Cup at The O2 in London from 25-27 September live on Sky Sports.
