Super League Qualifiers: Final-round permutations

By Tom Mordey

Tuesday 25 September 2018 14:10, UK

It's the final year of the Qualifiers in Super League, and what a final year it's been. With one round of games left, no one's place in Super League is confirmed.

Who will take the three automatic spots? Who will play out the Million Pound Game (MPG)? And who will remain in the Championship next season?

Get your calculators out and enjoy the ride...

Salford v Toulouse (7.30pm on Thursday, live on Sky Sports Arena)

Permutations

Salford are the first team with a chance of securing a Super League spot. They know a win against Toulouse will be enough. The Red Devils would move onto 10 points, but their points difference of 109 is 29 better than the leaders Leeds and vastly superior to any other side. A defeat would leave them looking nervously over their shoulders though.

As for Toulouse, it's out of their hands. They're currently fifth, in the final position for the Million Pound Game. A win of six points or more moves them above Hull KR until they play on Sunday. A win of 18 or more moves them above Toronto. Only a miracle points swing would take them past Salford.

However, their points difference is only 10 points better than London in sixth, who face bottom side Halifax. Automatic promotion, the MPG and the Championship are all possibilities for the French side.

Form guide

Salford started the Qualifiers like a team in a hurry to secure their Super League status. They won the opening four games, including a 62-4 away win at Halifax. But narrow defeats at Leeds and London has left them vulnerable.

Toulouse have impressed at home, beating Super League sides Hull KR and Widnes while also getting past Halifax. But they've also lost all three on the road, including a gutting one-point reverse in Toronto. Those difficulties on their travels make it tricky to turn over Salford.

Match-winner

For Salford, it's no surprise their two defeats have come after Jackson Hastings was suspended for two games after a high tackle against Toronto.

The playmaker has been a revelation in his short time with the Red Devils after arriving from Manly Sea Eagles and his signature for 2019 is currently hot property. Hastings might be key on his return.

Leeds v Toronto (7.30pm on Friday, live on Sky Sports Arena)

Permutations

While Leeds are not yet mathematically safe, it would take a remarkable turn of events for the Rhinos to crash into the MPG. A win or draw guarantees top spot in the Qualifiers.

A defeat of fewer than 32 points keeps Leeds above Toronto and in the top three spots. But a defeat of more than that would leave Leeds below Toronto and in the sights of Hull KR who play on Sunday.

As for the Wolfpack, not even a win would guarantee a Super League place, despite moving them onto 10 points. Both Salford and Hull KR could match that. While Toronto won't catch Salford's points difference, they are 12 better off than Hull KR.

Alternatively, a defeat could see them hang onto third spot if Hull KR were also to lose while not bettering Toronto's points difference and Toulouse or London don't overturn their respective points differences. Again, automatic promotion, the MPG and the Championship are all on the cards for the Wolfpack.

Form guide

It's not been pretty for the Rhinos, but they've stumbled their way through the Qualifiers. A win over Toronto would match their record from 2016. The only defeat came in a 38-36 reverse against Hull KR at Headingley. But they pulled off narrow wins away at Widnes and then at home to Salford courtesy of a last-gasp Liam Sutcliffe penalty.

That leaves Leeds in pole position to retain their Super League status. Toronto's two defeats came at home to Hull KR and away at Salford. Their only win over a Super League outfit came while relegating Widnes last weekend, although they did beat all three of their Championship rivals.

Match-winner

Despite a miserable season for Leeds as a club, Richie Myler has stood up for the Rhinos in his debut campaign. He provided 23 try assists in the regular Super League season, a figure that's still fourth in the charts, even with Myler missing out on the chance to add to that total in the Super 8s.

He's provided some important moments in the Qualifiers too, scoring against Halifax, Hull KR, Toulouse and getting the match-clincher in that critical game against Widnes. The half-back will be aiming to finish with a bang.

London v Halifax (7.30pm on Saturday, live on Sky Sports Arena)

Permutations

On the face of it, London have the most to do. Danny Ward's side start in sixth spot, which would keep them in the Championship. But if Toronto and Hull KR were to lose, automatic promotion is alive.

The Broncos currently have a points difference of minus 10, needing 28 to go past Toronto, 16 to go past Hull KR and 11 to go past Toulouse. And here's the thing: they play Halifax at home. That's a Halifax side without a win in the Qualifiers and with a points difference of minus 150.

The Broncos have won one and lost one against Halifax this season, the home win secured by just two points. At the very least, London will set their sights on the MPG, achievable by just bettering Toulouse's result or making up the 11 points in difference. They could also climb above Hull KR on points difference.

Form guide

London might be disappointed not to be higher up the Qualifiers table, having beaten two Super League opposition in Widnes and Salford. They also thrashed Toulouse at home, but an away defeat to Toronto makes life more difficult for the Broncos.

They were also beaten by Leeds and Hull KR, although neither victory was straightforward. Halifax have lost all six of their games, shipping 202 points, but they can be proud of their first-half performance against Leeds last week. Only Salford have given them a real pummelling.

Match-winner

Jarrod Sammut was the star in the Broncos' win over Salford last week. His boot proved the difference, kicking two penalties, a conversion and a drop goal in that 11-8 win. And Sammut is a threat from open play in terms of guiding his side around the pitch.

The half-back also booted the crucial one pointer in the 21-20 win over Widnes in the very first game in the Qualifiers. An experienced operator, Sammut will need to deliver to the very best of his playmaking abilities as London chase a big score.

Hull KR v Widnes (3pm on Sunday)

Permutations

It's going to be a nerve-wracking wait for Tim Sheens and his men. They could sit third or sixth on Sunday before kick-off depending on results. A Salford win would keep KR above Toulouse. A Salford-Toulouse draw would mean the Robins could catch the Red Devils. And as explained, a six-plus points win for the French side leaves Hull KR below them.

On Friday, a Leeds win of 13 or more points would move KR above Toronto without playing. A heavy Wolfpack win would leave the Robins chasing points to catch either them, or potentially Leeds if the score is 32 or more. Meanwhile, London could also go above them on Saturday with a 16-point win. It could be a tough three days watching for KR to work out what result they need.

Form guide

Hull KR will be kicking themselves at being in this position. Despite a defeat to Salford in the opening round of the Qualifiers, they beat the Wolfpack in Canada before stunning Leeds at Headingley thanks to a Craig Hall hat-trick.

Wins over Halifax and London followed, leaving the Robins in excellent shape, but a defeat to Toulouse in France has left them facing the prospect of the MPG.

As for Widnes, it's been a miserable few weeks. Relegation was confirmed in Canada, losing 20-12 to Toronto. Their only win came at home to Halifax, with the club now having to plan for life in the Championship in 2019.

Match-winner

What a signing Craig Hall has proven to be for Hull KR. He returned to the club for a second spell before the Qualifiers began, joining from Leigh just before the deadline closed. Hall's try-scoring feats have been exceptional.

He's got 13 in just seven games since pulling on the Red and White shirt again. That includes that hat-trick against Leeds and a four-try display in the win over Halifax, scored in just 27 minutes. There was also two against Toulouse and one against both Toronto and Salford. A serious haul for Hall who is hoping to extend his stay into the 2019 season.