Aidan Hutchinson and Travon Walker appear set to battle it out for the honour of No 1 overall pick at the 2022 NFL Draft, while once-projected frontrunner Kayvon Thibodeaux faces an unpredictable night in Las Vegas. You can watch the Draft live on Sky Sports on Thursday night.
Tuesday 26 April 2022 21:16, UK
And then there were two. Or one, or three - honestly, who knows? The 2022 NFL Draft is here, but who will the Jacksonville Jaguars take with the No 1 overall pick?
Rarely in recent memory has a Draft been so tricky to predict, but as Las Vegas awaits it is Aidan Hutchinson and Travon Walker who appear set to battle it out for the honour of being the first name uttered by Commissioner Roger Goodell.
We take a look at the two likely frontrunners, along with a man in Kayvon Thibodeaux who had once looked destined set to stand where one of them will on Thursday night....
There is nothing too covert or convoluted about Aidan Hutchinson; he is the busiest man on the field, with every-down belligerence, a resistance-deteriorating motor and the polished pass-rush toolbox relaxed of coverage tendencies and cleared to attack the pocket at full throttle.
The motor has been accentuated above all, and while it is as ferocious and as draining and as consistent as advertised, there needed to be more than a motor. There is a case that the motor has, unjustly, been a sole focus overshadowing his technical traits.
With Hutchinson comes an expansive and cleverly alternated menu of swim, rip and bull rush moves that presents different looks with each series, while the Michigan edge offers a seamless transition from speed to power as a constant disruptor from both a two-point or three-point stance.
A standout 2021 highlighted the versatility of a player capable of thriving both on the outside and as an interior force, with the lateral agility and athleticism to elongate his body that makes him an elite catch-and-wrap run defender.
His first-step is more dynamic than it gets credit for, not helped when pitted against the explosiveness of his teammate David Ojabo, and the momentum-building flurry of arm pumps upon take-off can create uncertainty for offensive tackles by disguising hand placement at times.
What he meanwhile lacks in natural bend compared to a Walker or Thibodeaux he can often make up for with sheer power and nimble feet to sell an outside-in/inside-out move.
Often some of his most impressive plays have been ones he should not make, where he may find himself leaning off-balance upon engagement with the tackle before shifting his body weight over and wrestling free to smother the running back that thinks the 'B' gap is clear.
He is a ready-made day one impact player suited to both a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme, bringing an exceptional footballing IQ to identify play-design instantly, something evidenced by a visible tendency to be giving out instructions to teammates elsewhere on the field before making a play having not even been looking at the pre-snap offensive set-up.
As is the nature of Draft build-up, some corners of the league feel uncomfortable without finding something to be concerned about, hence citations of Hutchinson's shorter arms (32") compared to the Bosa brothers and Myles Garrett. But he hits his man like a train and his teachable demeanor suggests the counter-moves will only improve with NFL level coaching.
Hutchinson promises faultless hustle and a frantic find-a-way nuisance that relishes the opportunity to attack the top offensive tackles in the nation.
NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah has Hutchinson as his No 1-ranked prospect in his final top 150.
"Hutchinson is an ultra-productive edge rusher with ideal size, quickness and polish. He stood up this past season in defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald's system at Michigan. As a pass rusher, he has a quick first step and a wide array of hand moves to generate pressures/sacks. He’s collected wins with dip/rip moves, quick hand swipes, long inside-arm bull rushes and swim moves. He can feel when OTs overset and he is quick to counter inside. He also has the ability to grab and control the wrist of his opponent. He doesn’t have elite bend at the top of his rush, but once free, he has an impressive closing burst. In the run game, he holds the point of attack and his effort is nonstop on the back side. Hutchinson isn’t in the same class as the Bosa brothers, but he’s not far behind."
As of Monday Travon Walker became the Las Vegas bookies favourite to go No 1 overall on Thursday night, leapfrogging long-standing frontrunner Hutchinson to underline what analysts and fans had suspected in regards to a Draft drenched with uncertainty. And yet it could mean nothing; odds aside, there is still the sense Hutchinson is the man.
Walker's ascent has been among the most striking across the entire class, without being the emergence of an outsider or the testing-fuelled heist from top 10 periphery that some have paraded it as.
The sell is size-defiant speed and athleticism, the sell is rangy Hutchinson-trumping arm length, the sell is the projection, the high floor and the high ceiling built on his raw physical talent and teachable make-up, the sell is the modern-scheme-equipped versatility. The sell of a hand in Georgia's National Championship-winning defense is also partially the root of, perhaps unfair, question marks over the sell.
Walker's production is modest in comparison to that of Hutchinson and previous No 1 picks in their role, with his pass-rush win-rate minus stunts and blitzes in 2021 just 10 per cent in contrast to the Michigan man's 25 per cent.
His evaluation is also one of the toughest for the reason that he played in a defense consisting of around seven or eight NFL first-round-worthy talents, and for the reason that Kirby Smart's scheme was rarely designed to elevate Walker as chief sack merchant.
A selfless role could occasionally be misconceived for a quiet series, his ability to dictate blocking angles and set-the-edge power vacating gaps for blitzing rushers, while Smart would also utilise him as a trap defender to force quarterbacks outside the pocket and into the path of the type of spy linebackers he will see plenty of in the NFL.
He plays with swift design diagnosis, he seeks to deceive quarterbacks and running backs by selling gaps with outside leverage before hopping back inside to gobble up the ball-carrier, he would drift between the edge and inside and be entrusted to bail into coverage where he could glide laterally and showcase his versatility.
Where Hutchinson and Thibodeaux tended to operate as 5-tech perimeter-hoggers, Walker would typically align tighter as a 4i-tech over the tackle's right shoulder. And where Hutchinson's intentions were blatant, Walker would be used heavily in stunts reliant on speed, agile footwork and bend to worm through and disorientate offensive lines.
The 21-year-old never feels out of a play, earns himself advantages with boxer-like distancing and clever hand placement to avoid entanglement and allow himself the mobility to re-adjust if necessary. He cracks blockers at the point of contact and walks them back with robust, high-motor legs, regularly finding himself faced with double-team situations.
Pads-off combine and pro day testing has undoubtedly played a significant role in pumping up his draft stock, but he is an era-trendy chess piece and therefore one of the most appealing coaching projects in his position group.
"Walker is a versatile edge defender with exceptional length and athleticism. He primarily aligned on the edge, but played inside, too. As a pass rusher, he isn't ultra-explosive, but he's smooth and powerful. He loves to widen the offensive tackle with his upfield rush before using his inside arm to jolt and walk him back to the QB. He also flashes a quick swipe move to create pressures. He's very disruptive, but he's left some sacks on the field because of missed tackles. The Bulldogs dropped him into coverage quite a bit, and he's made some incredibly athletic plays, including one particular pass breakup versus Florida. Against the run, he dominates with his length and power at the point of attack. He destroys tight ends. I believe Walker's best football is ahead of him."
Last spring it looked for all the world like Kayvon Thibodeaux was marching towards the No 1 pick as the strongest, fastest game-changer, game-wrecker on every football field. But as Joe Burrow demonstrated, things can change and it is easy to be enamoured by a breakout year like that of Hutchinson.
Thibodeaux is unlikely to go off the board at No 1, and as much has felt clear for some weeks now, yet stick on the tape and he still feels a No 1 pick-worthy player. Such has been polarisation of Draft opinion over the Oregon edge rusher, such has been the fickleness of outlooks on this particular Draft class that there have been murmurs of him slipping outside the top 10. Come on.
Burst and bludgeon power warranting designated protection plans has been clouded by whispers of 'character concerns' and 'lack of love for the game' and a 'takes plays off' motor. Evidence is short in supply, questions of his drive are unfair.
Thibodeaux is a high-ceiling disruptor with an explosive first-step that defies his 6'5", 260lb frame, a Euro step rush and get-skinny ability that enables him to fly around the pocket, the overwhelming upper-body strength and balance upon engagement to compensate for a less deep collection of pass rush moves than others and the speed to bamboozle lineman with both his bull-rush and in stunts.
There is little differentiation to his impact whether he be in a two or three-point stance while aligned as anything from a nine-tech to stunting three-tech, and Oregon's opponent would regularly utilise double-team packages, chip blocks and outside-zone runs directed away from him as well as disguising in pre-snap motion men as extra blockers as a means of keeping him quiet.
You start to question the 'motor-lacking' critics when you observe him manhandle a tackle and guard in unison before tearing off to hunt down a breakaway runner (on the tape), or when he spins inside as a four-tech on the weak side to scurry after the field-side runner (on the tape), or when you watch him usher the right tackle wide to lure the quarterback B-gap escape and race after him in pursuit. Aside from the power and the frightening first step, there is a willingness to scale the pocket perimeter and to harass ball carriers as a lateral obstacle, both of which account for 'proof of motor' in their own right.
His IQ as a coverage defender is also an unsung component to his game, Oregon occasionally simulating pressure with Thibodeaux before pulling him back to the second level in order to unlock his open-field agility. His counter movements will enhance as his hand work is developed, while playing alongside veteran NFL defenders will carve more openings for him.
No 1 looks out the question by now. But physically, Thibodeaux offers everything you could wish for in one of football's premium positions. And as for 'character concerns', that sounds a lot like people being frightened by a smart kid that is tuned into the world.
Watch all three days of the 2022 NFL Draft unfold on Sky Sports NFL, April 28-30, starting with live build-up to day one from 9pm on Thursday, April 28, with the first picks expected to be made just after 1am.
