Friday 16 October 2015 16:43, UK
The NFL is getting tasty and Sky Sports expert Richard Graves reckons he knows what to expect in Week 6 ...
Five teams - the New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers - still own unbeaten records and will all be hoping to preserve their '0' this week.
Byes: Cowboys, Raiders, Rams, Buccaneers
Sunday October 18
This had the potential to be one of the more intriguing contests of Week 6. Then came the news that Bills' quarterback Tyrod Taylor had sprained his MCL in Tennessee... EJ Manuel could start against the Bengals. Add that to WR Sammy Watkins (calf), running backs LeSean McCoy (hamstring) and Karlos Williams (concussion) and you have a Bills team desperately hoping some of those players can return this weekend.
This week's match-up pits two of the NFL's top 10 units in terms of points scored per game against each other. The Bills secondary can expect a busy day dealing with AJ Green and Tyler Eifert, while Cincinnati will be relieved not to have to account for Taylor's playmaking ability with his legs if he is ruled out.
I'm mindful of the poor record teams have the week after facing the Seattle Seahawks (this season they are 1-4) as well as this game being played in Buffalo. But Taylor would be a big loss and there's no guarantee Buffalo's other playmakers will all be fit. To beat this Cincinnati Bengals team, it'll take opponents who are firing on all cylinders themselves.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Traditionally these are close games. No more than five points have settled their last three regular season meetings and although 14 points was the winning margin in the play-offs last January, that contest was an awful lot closer than the final score suggests.
This season these two sides have struggled on offence but it's the play of Carolina's QB Cam Newton which has contributed to the Panthers' perfect 4-0 start.
Seattle's offence is nothing special though, they average just over 22 points per game and their much vaunted defence surrendered a 24-7 fourth-quarter lead in Cincinnati last weekend. That is sure to have dented the Legion of Boom's pride as they return to the Pacific North West.
Seattle's defence is ranked fifth overall, Carolina's 10th. This will likely be another tight, low-scoring affair with the Seahawks edging out the Panthers once more.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
This clash is sure to have pundits recalling the AFC Championship game last January and 'deflategate'. Both these teams will spend this week telling reporters that is all in the past but it's perhaps one of the reasons New England have appeared to play with a chip on their shoulder this season.
As expected, the Patriots went into Dallas and steamrolled the Cowboys. It wasn't a vintage performance from Tom Brady but the Patriots defence kept Dallas out of the end zone and New England were comfortable 30-6 winners. The Patriots offence is ranked first overall (423.8 yards per game), first in passing (331 yards per game) and second in points scored (37.3 points per game). For any team, facing New England is a daunting prospect.
For Indianapolis and their 28th-ranked defence, there are sure to be sleepless nights. As great as New England's prowess is through the air, in the last regular season encounter between these two, the Patriots gashed the Colts on the ground. Remember Jonas Gray? He shot to prominence with four touchdowns in this fixture 12 months ago.
If Indianapolis are to have any chance, they are going to have to match the Patriots on the scoreboard. The good news is, Andrew Luck is back practising and should start on Sunday, WR Andre Johnson rediscovered his way to the end zone in their last outing and Frank Gore has begun to run the ball well. All that being said, through five weeks the Patriots have looked like the champions they are. They're undefeated and the current Colts team hasn't shown enough to suggest that will change this week
Pick: New England Patriots
This Peyton Manning-led offence, which led the league just two seasons ago, continues to struggle, ranking a lowly 30th!
The Broncos defence is the No 1 ranked unit in the NFL but they'll have to adjust to life without this season's sack leader, DeMarcus Ware, for the next two weeks. Incredibly, head coach Gary Kubiak was asked if it was time to bench Manning earlier this week. That question was answered with a firm 'no'. While Manning isn't playing well, Denver remain unbeaten.
The Cleveland Browns had a big moment (or several) of their own last week, travelling to Baltimore and shocking the Ravens in overtime. Josh McCown became the first QB in Browns history to throw for over 300 yards in three straight games, finishing with two TDs and 457 passing yards with Gary Barnidge, by far, his favourite target, finishing with 139 receiving yards.
There's just a sense now that something good is beginning to develop in Cleveland and wins like last Sunday's can only help the cause. This weekend is a significant step up in class and as great as last weekend's shock was, it would pale into insignificance if they were to end Denver's perfect start.
Pick: Denver Broncos
In terms of the NFC North this a huge game. The Lions have slipped to 0-5 and are the only winless team in the NFL. Meanwhile the return of QB Jay Cutler has sparked new life into the Bears and that means they find themselves just half a game behind the Vikings in second place.
Detroit rank in the league's bottom 10 on both offence and defence this season and one section of their fan base has become so disillusioned, they've started a petition to the White House to have the passports of their players revoked once they've landed in London in two weeks' time!
All of this must be music to the ears of everyone associated with the Bears. The first five games have been a rough ride for them as well but at least they have two wins and the manner of their come-from-behind win at the Chiefs was hugely impressive.
The form of Jay Cutler suggests the Bears have the edge but both of these defences are conceding more than 27 points per game this year, meaning there will be opportunities for both QBs to make game-changing plays. If Detroit don't win this game, you wonder when they'll snap their losing streak but, despite holding home field advantage, their play doesn't inspire any confidence right now, no matter what the opposition.
Pick: Chicago Bears
An AFC South battle which may just be the worst game of the week! The Texans will revert to Week 1 starter Bryan Hoyer at QB while the Jaguars' defeat at Tampa Bay last weekend has led to an air of despondency around Jacksonville.
Houston appears to be in a state of disarray. A defensive unit which ranks 11th overall is giving up 27 points per game. Offensively they rank fifth but they're only scoring 19 points per game. The play from their QBs has been erratic and last week descended to new levels of farce as Ryan Mallett took himself out of the game after taking a hit, only to be told to stay on the sidelines when Hoyer took his place.
This week's opponents also have only one win this season. QB Black Bortles had a career day in the defeat to the Buccaneers, throwing for 303 yards and four TDs but the Jaguars scuppered their chances with costly turnovers.
The Texans' have lead RB Arian Foster playing his third game in a row since returning from injury which undoubtedly helps them but until they resolve their issues at QB it's tough to back them with any confidence. In a battle of two teams who are bad on defence, ineffective on offence and have both now lost to Tampa Bay, it's a flip-of-a-coin game and the Jaguars have home field advantage
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Vikings will be well rested after their bye week while the Chiefs not only have to deal with a soul crushing loss to Chicago last weekend but are now facing up to life without running back Jamaal Charles after he tore his ACL.
That likely means the Chiefs offence, which ranks 26th in the NFL, will now rest on the shoulders of QB Alex Smith, who continues to struggle getting the ball down field to his receivers. On Sunday he finished with just 16 completed passes out of 30 for 181 yards. The running game will now fall to Knile Davis and Charcandrick West.
The Vikings played well in defeat to the Broncos last time out and this appears to be an ideal match up for them. Only Seattle average more rushing yards per game than the Vikings (136.5) and with Adrian Peterson in the backfield, that should not only negate the Chiefs pass rush but also give QB Teddy Bridgewater more time to throw the ball.
Whichever way you draw this game up, the personnel and the statistics point to a Vikings win
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
The Redskins came so close to causing a huge upset in Atlanta but in the end, came up short. They led the Falcons for the majority of the game and even rallied to score a game tying field goal before getting the ball in overtime. Only for QB Kirk Cousins to throw a 'Pick Six', ensuring the Falcons' perfect record remains intact. The Redskins have now gone a year without back-to-back wins.
It'll be no comfort at all then, that this week the schedule takes them to New York, against a Jets team possessing the No 2 ranked defence and fresh off a bye week. Gang Green's defense is the meanest in the league, giving up fewer than 14 points per game and only Tennessee give up fewer passing yards.
It may come as a surprise to discover that Washington's defence ranks sixth and they give up an average of 20.8 points per game which suggests this could be a low-scoring affair. Their effort last weekend - keeping WR Julio Jones quiet - will certainly have boosted their confidence, but the Redskins were gashed on the ground, giving up 173 rushing yards and the Jets have Chris Ivory to exploit that weakness.
Pick: New York Jets
The Cardinals bounced back from a shock defeat to the Rams with an emphatic win in Detroit while Pittsburgh travelled across the country to pull out a dramatic win with the last play of the game in San Diego.
Arizona are only too well aware they had themselves to blame for their lone defeat this season, conceding costly turnovers to the Rams. Well, they righted that against the Lions, claiming six of their own. QB Carson Palmer, wasteful in the red zone against the Rams, put the Lions to the sword, completing 11 of 14 passes for 161 yards and three TDs.
It's Arizona's run defence which will be tested this week though. Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell has 302 rushing yards from 62 carries in the three games since he returned from suspension - five of them have gained 20+ yards! On the negative side, Pittsburgh's passing attack isn't nearly as potent without injured QB Ben Roethlisberger, but as we saw on Monday night Michael Vick still has a big arm and can make the deep pass. Ultimately though, this game is about putting points on the board and in two games with Vick starting at QB, the Steelers have scored 44 points, the Cardinals are averaging 38!
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
It was a busy bye week for the Miami Dolphins. HC Joe Philbin was fired and replaced on an interim basis by Dan Campbell, who immediately called into question the team's practice methods. Then QB Ryan Tannehill's conduct was questioned after less than flattering reports about his behaviour on the practice field. Often a change at the top can cause a spike in performance but all does not appear well in Miami.
This week they travel to Tennessee, facing a side led by a rookie quarterback, coming off a tough loss to the Bills. It was a game the Titans never trailed in until Chris Hogan's TD edged Buffalo in front with 5:25 remaining and it was a score which ultimately meant Tennessee had blown a double-digit lead for a second straight home game.
Without doubt Miami will be favoured to win this, despite their 1-3 record and despite the fact that they enter the game with a defence of talented individuals who've managed to garner a total of just one sack all season - the fewest in the NFL - It's hard to imagine the Dolphins not raising their game this week after all that's gone on. If they don't, Joe Philbin may soon be joined by others looking for work.
Pick: Miami Dolphins
The Chargers head to Lambeau Field with the NFL's third-ranked offence and the second best passing attack behind the Patriots, averaging 318 yards per game. The problem is, that offence has only led them to a 2-3 record and as I wrote here last week, the Chargers' offensive line has been decimated by injuries. TE Antonio Gates' return from suspension certainly helped this team out on Monday night as he hauled in two TD passes in an offence which is averaging around 23 points per game.
However, that's four points per game fewer than the Packers. Aaron Rodgers rightly gets all the accolades but their running game is becoming more prominent as the weeks go by. The Packers are ranked eighth with 126.2 yards per game. Their defence ranks seventh in the NFL and of course, this game is being played at Lambeau Field. Green Bay haven't lost a regular season game at home since 2013. When San Diego's porous defense is added into the equation, conceding around 27 points per game, expect Green Bay to improve to 6-0
Pick: Green Bay Packers
The Ravens' season went from bad to dreadful last weekend. An overtime defeat to the Browns at home had many fans openly talking about next year's draft.
Baltimore can rightly point to a rash of injuries to key players on both sides of the ball but they now have a 1-4 record and sit bottom of the AFC North. For a team which were crowned Super Bowl champions just three seasons ago, that's not good enough.
This weekend they travel to the west coast to face a team who have similar issues and an identical record. Under fire 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick had a better game last Sunday, showing a nice touch on several passes in the second half against the Giants, but San Francisco allowed them to drive 82 yards in the final two minutes to score a game winning TD.
Meanwhile, Baltimore have little threat through the air with their top three receiving options all injured. The only game they've won this year was against a Pittsburgh team who missed two field goals, and this is a Ravens team which just lost to the Browns. If Kaepernick can play to the standard he reached in New York, sprinkled with a healthy dose of Carlos Hyde running the ball, the 49ers will pick up their second win of the season.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers
Monday October 19
A big NFC East clash rounds off Week 6. The Giants head to the City of Brotherly Love riding a three-game winning streak and can severely dent any aspirations Philly have of taking the division.
Sam Bradford's form is still a big cause for concern though. Despite completing 32 of 45 passes for 333 yards and two TDs he did more than enough to keep the New Orleans Saints in the game, especially early, when he missed receivers and made bad decisions. Against the Giants, those type of errors will likely be punished more severely.
The Giants strode to the outright lead in the division with a thrilling 82-yard TD drive in the final two minutes to come out on top over the 49ers, evoking memories of Eli Manning's heroics in their last two Super Bowl successes.
Last season the Eagles won both games against the Giants, including a 27-0 blowout in this corresponding fixture. However, this is a very different Eagles team, lacking confidence and error-prone. Their defense has been the one positive spot this season, allowing an average of just 20.6 points per game despite repeatedly being placed in tough positions. Unless Sam Bradford can eliminate his mistakes though, that's not likely to be enough to win this encounter.
Pick: New York Giants
