WNBA: Connecticut Sun and Phoenix Mercury can do damage in playoffs, regardless of seeding

Watch Connecticut Sun @ Phoenix Mercury live on Sky Sports Mix (Channel 416) on Monday night at 11pm

By Huw Hopkins, Sky Sports WNBA analyst

Tuesday 8 September 2020 08:01, UK

Don't let their regular-season records fool you, the Connecticut Sun and Phoenix Mercury remain capable of doing real damage in the WNBA playoffs.

Some things just can't be counted out: The Undertaker returning to WWE, another Jurassic Park film, The Eagles doing a farewell tour. You can add the Phoenix Mercury's Diana Taurasi to that list as well.

Last year, an injury saw the greatest female player of all time sit out a full season. Her Mercury team were knocked out of the playoffs in the first round. Taurasi's team has missed the playoffs just five times in her 16 years in the WNBA - but even in the years they missed the postseason, the Mercury had a winning record of at least .471, which has been good enough for playoff teams in other seasons (including Phoenix in 2016).

The only year they missed the playoffs completely was when Taurasi played just eight games.

That's not to say there weren't concerns this year. Even with all the hype surrounding Taurasi's return and the addition of new pieces, the Mercury were 6-7 at one stage and looked like they were going to be a disappointment. But after winning six straight games, they are in rhythm at the right time.

Another team that could do some damage are the Connecticut Sun. It has been a disappointing year after last season's Finals appearance, but after losing their point guard to another team and missing perhaps the league's best center due to health concerns, the team had to rebuild on the fly.

They did well on paper, getting Taurasi's former All-Star team-mate, elite scorer DeWanna Bonner, to pair with Alyssa Thomas, who is a great leader and can fill it up, but doesn't get any easy points.

But the Sun started out terribly. A new roster took time to mesh, and their first five games were messy. Since then, the team has gone 9-5 and played some solid basketball to make a push into the playoff places.

Going into Monday night's game live on Sky Sports Mix (Ch 416), the Sun hope to secure a playoff spot and the Mercury have already extended their stay in the Bradenton 'wubble' for the playoffs.

But with Phoenix and Connecticut playing the best basketball of their respective seasons in recent games, which team has the best chance of causing an upset in the postseason?

Playoff positioning

The top four seeded teams earn a 'bye', which means they automatically advance to the second round of the playoffs. The top two teams get a double bye, and automatically advance to the semi-finals. If everything remains as things currently stand, the Sun and the Mercury would not face each other in the opening round of the playoffs, but they would have two rounds of single elimination games to navigate.

As the fifth seed, the Mercury would play the eighth seeded Dallas Wings - a young group that has a lot of talent and surprisingly good composure behind leading scorer Arike Ogunbowale. She knows her way around a win-or-go-home situation, having won an NCAA championship and picked up the March Madness Tournament Most Outstanding Player award.

But the team doesn't have anyone on the roster with more than four years' experience, and her team-mates might not necessarily have that same level of confidence. Not backing Taurasi in a single elimination situation is the way madness lies.

The Sun would face the tougher task of the Chicago Sky, a team that will be disappointed if they don't finish in the top four this season. Even without All-Star Diamond DeShields and starting big Azura Stevens, the Sky have the MVP-worthy point guard Courtney Vandersloot, the best shooter in the game Allie Quigley, and the league's most creative coach James Wade.

However, Chicago occasionally struggle on defense, especially against big, strong teams. If Bonner can score well, with Thomas causing havoc physically, Connecticut stand a chance, but the Sky will be organised and prepared for the Sun's strengths.

Plenty to play for

These current playoff positions aren't guaranteed, and Monday's game between the Sun and the Mercury could be a catalyst for plenty of change in the next few days. Anything can happen in a single-elimination game, more so than ever this season with no real home court advantage, so the Sky and Mercury will want to clinch that fourth seed if possible to avoid it.

Beyond Taurasi, the Mercury will need a big game from Brittney Griner against the Sun. At 6ft 7in, she stands head and shoulders above Connecticut's bigs without Jonquel Jones this season, but she is not a strong rebounder, whereas Thomas is an immovable rock, and you can expect her to battle hard on the boards.

Phoenix also have one of the most dependable point guards in the league. Skyler Diggins-Smith took a few games to get settled with her new team-mates this season, but she is now the second leading scorer on the roster, stretches the floor for Griner on the inside and is a contributor to this team's distributor-by-committee mentality.

While you can't deny the heart of the Sun, they are probably struggling without a third All-Star calibre player to stay with the Mercury. Phoenix are also struggling with a lack of warm bodies due to injury - but there is a difference in the quality of available players between the two teams.

Taurasi leads them all in experience, talent and competitive drive. During the first 10 games of the season, she averaged 16 points, but in the most recent six - all wins - she averaged 23, and that includes a quiet nine-point outing in a blowout win against the worst team in the league, the New York Liberty, which brought down her average.

At 38, she can only handle so many games playing big minutes, so getting at least one bye during the playoffs would be a great benefit. However, if she can stay healthy, the Mercury might be one of the biggest threats. They will go as far as she can take them, and six consecutive wins shows that Taurasi cannot be counted out.

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