Matt Cooper is keeping track of the numbers all week at Augusta National, looking for the keys to success.
Matt Cooper keeps track of the numbers all week at Augusta National
Saturday:
It's only half-time at Augusta National but if past tournaments are anything to go by, the majority of the weekend competitors are playing for pride and prize money because the stats indicate that the winner will already be in the top ten on the leaderboard.
Indeed, in the last 16 years no fewer than 15 winners were tied fifth or better. The exception was Mark O'Meara in 1998 and he was tied ninth. Fourteen of those winners were actually tied fourth or better.
The current top four is: Rory McIlroy (-10), Jason Day (-8), Tiger Woods and KJ Choi (-7). Geoff Ogilvy and Alvaro Quiros are one shot back, five players are tied for seventh.
Let's take a closer look at the main contenders. McIlroy is currently ranked second for Distance, third for Greens in Regulation and is yet to register a three-putt. This is his third visit to Augusta and his previous best was T20th in 2009. He is only the fourth player in history to reach 10-under-par or better at the 36-hole stage of a Masters. Raymond Floyd won from that position in 1976 (by eight shots); Greg Norman in 1996 and Chris DiMarco in 2001 did not.
Day has registered more birdies than anyone else in the field (13) and is ranked third for putting, but he is the only player in the top six to have hit less than 70% of the greens in regulation. He is fighting history: no Australian has ever won the Masters and he is also a debutant (since 1935 only Fuzzy Zoeller has won first time at Augusta).
Position matters
Woods is in the top ten for Putting and Greens in Regulation and his total of nine birdies in round two was the best of the day. A four-time winner at Augusta, his position at the end of Saturday might matter: he is still yet to win a major when he didn't lead after 54 holes. This is only the second time since his enforced break from the game that he has been top five with 36 holes to play. At last year's Masters he finished fourth and at this year's Dubai Desert Classic he ended the week T20th.
Choi has a good record at Augusta - he was third in 2004 and fourth last year. Fifth for greens in regulation, he looks comfortable again. Like Martin Kaymer has this year, he tried to find a draw for Augusta in 2009 but missed the cut and has reverted to his natural shape of shot (a fade).
Ogilvy has hit more greens in regulation than anyone in the field (31 of 36) but he has also had three three-putts. Like Day he is trying to become the first Australian winner of the Masters. In five previous visits he has never finished worse than T39th but never better than T15th.
Quiros leads the Distance rankings, is fourth for Greens in regulation and is yet to register a three-putt; stats which belie his previous record at Augusta: three rounds of 75 and one of 78 contributing to two missed cuts.
What else do the stats throw up? Alex Cejka has missed just one fairway all week, poor Mike Weir found just ten, Luke Donald and Charl Schwartzel head the putting stats (1.47 putts per hole), Graeme McDowell (with six three putts) has the worst putting stats, Jeff Overton improved his bunker play (from 0 from 5 in round one to 3 from 4 in round two) and the worst record in Sand Saves now belongs to Davis Love III who is 1 from 8.
Back-nine flow
The flow of the back nine remains as it always has: the first three holes are playing tough (the 11th and 12th rank first and second most difficult), then the 13th and 15th rank the two easiest holes on the course with the 14th averaging under par too, and the final three holes all average over their par.
Finally, don't forget one of Augusta's strongest trends: the importance of being in the top two going into the final round. An incredible 19 of the last 20 winners were in that position (Zach Johnson, in 2007, was the exception).
