Rory McIlroy still the man to beat at Arnold Palmer Invitational
Tuesday 17 March 2015 10:58, UK
Ben Coley previews the Arnold Palmer Invitational and fancies Rory McIlroy to secure his second victory of 2015.
After Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson both threw their hats firmly into the ring for the Masters in three weeks’ time, the headline acts from Europe have the chance to follow suit in the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Played at Bay Hill and hosted by The King himself, this is an event which has been dominated by Tiger Woods in the past but his absence means Rory McIlroy is the undisputed favourite at 6/1.
McIlroy has declined previous invitations from Palmer but at last makes good on his promise to play the event, and many punters will simply see this as a straightforward choice between him and Ryder Cup team-mate Henrik Stenson.
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The Swede has finished in the frame on his two starts in Florida this season and has gradually got to grips with Bay Hill, which means he could have an advantage over Rory whose course knowledge will be limited to a practice round or two and whose last start saw him finish a fair way adrift in ninth at Doral.
However, I see McIlroy as the man to beat following subtle changes to this course which seem to have been made with a view to favouring big-hitters and generally making things a little easier.
With wider fairways to aim at, not much wind forecast and a series of holes which will afford him the luxury of hitting that booming draw he so loves, McIlroy can attack from the start and remind us all just who is the best player in the world.
Remember, he was sent off at just 4/1 for Doral and I actually don’t think he likes the place. Here, the layers are assuming the course won’t suit because if it does, he should be nearer the 3/1 mark given that he doesn’t have Spieth or Johnson to beat and the fact that Bay Hill is similar to PGA National, where he’s won and finished second.
Stenson clearly heads the dangers but my advice is to supplement a decent win bet on Rory with an each-way play on Webb Simpson.
Simpson first played this event on an invite in 2006 and has been a regular visitor since graduating on a Palmer scholarship from Wake Forest University.
So far his best finish at the course is 11th but that’s just about good enough to suggest he can make a run at the title, particularly as this time around he arrives in really good form which includes a share of seventh at the altogether too long Doral last time out.
The 2012 US Open champ figures highly in the PGA Tour’s new strokes gained: tee-to-green ranking and such quality ball-striking always works well at these tricky Florida layouts.
Away from the main markets, back Sam Saunders to secure his second top-20 finish in the space of three weeks.
It was almost two on the trot for this improving 27-year-old as he followed a play-off defeat in Puerto Rico with 24th at the Valspar last week, performances which set him up perfectly for the most important event – in his eyes – on the calendar.
Why is it important? Because Saunders is Arnold Palmer’s grandson and that’s why he’s already played this course over a thousand times, including in this event.
So far his best finish is 30th and given that he’s now a PGA Tour cardholder in his own right, not to mention playing the best golf of his life, 7/1 that Saunders sneaks inside the top 20 and makes granddad proud is a really good bet.
Finally, David Lingmerth may not be the Swede everyone is talking about but he may just upstage Stenson.
Lingmerth lives in nearby Jacksonville and has tended to save his best for Florida, where his finest hour came when chasing home Tiger in the Players’ Championship two years ago.
He was just outside the top 20 at the Honda Classic on his latest start and need only step up a bit on that to take a hand in the top European market, while he’s also of interest to be the pick of four Swedes and in various other side-markets such as top 20 and first-round leader.
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