Watch Bournemouth vs Newcastle & Liverpool vs Brentford all live on Sky Sports
Sunday 25 August 2024 16:37, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide his insight and best angles on every Premier League game, including a Dominik Szoboszlai goal vs Brentford.
The markets don't give enough respect to Bournemouth.
Yes, the sale of Dominic Solanke will make their life more problematic in front of goal but as a unit, Andoni Iraola has built one of the most organised defensive outfits in the Premier League. Since beating Newcastle 2-0 in November, their expected goals against per 90 record at home of just 1.04 is the fourth best home record of any team.
They are such a difficult team to create quality chances against - mostly down to their exceptional work without the ball.
Newcastle still have questions to answer regarding the expectation that without the extra fixtures they can return to the levels we saw in the 22/23 season. They dug-in against Saints last weekend with 10-men but did struggle to find any rhythm even before the sending off, so I'd be lukewarm about their chances of taking three points against a very difficult team to break down. The 2/1 with Sky Bet on a home win looks more than fair and the 8/11 for the Cherries to avoid defeat is one of the best bets on the card.
Wolves have forgotten how to win football matches, winning just once in their last 12 matches across the campaigns in all competitions.
That victory came against relegated Luton too, where they only created 0.42 worth of expected goals. Gary O'Neil has to arrest this dismal run otherwise relegation threat will become a problem.
This game screams slow burner. Enzo Maresca showed at Leicester last season he doesn't like taking risks early on in a game and is all about control. In 23 away games last season, his Leicester side kept 16 first half clean sheets - a 70 per cent strike rate. Meanwhile, Wolves, who can be very toothless in attack, only scored nine first half goals in their 19 home matches last season. The 0-0 half time correct score is simply too big at 5/2 with Sky Bet.
I'm not sure the 4/1 with Sky Bet about Dominik Szoboszlai scoring will be available once the Arne Slot regime really kicks into gear. The Hungarian looks exactly the type of goalscoring midfielder that Slot wants to help his front three and the signs were positive against Ipswich where he has three shots and posted four touches in the opposition box.
This game should present Szoboszlai with opportunities to let fly from range - something he loves to do.
Only Bruno Fernandes (37) has had more shots from outside the box since the start of last season than Szoboszlai (31). Brentford's tactic of defending deep and keeping very narrow with their defensive blocks means shots from range are fired at a huge rate. The 456 shots from outside the box they've conceded at an average of 5.92 per game is the most of any Premier League team to have played more than 37 games in that period.
Szoboszlai to score from outside the box at 11/1 with Sky Bet is a runner.
