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Tuesday 19 March 2024 10:09, UK
Jones Knows is back with his best bets across the Premier League card and strongly fancies the Aston Villa duo of Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey to shine vs Luton.
We couldn't do a Jack Balmer as we failed in our bid for a hat-trick of trebles. Opta kindly informed me Balmer was the last top-flight player to score three hat-tricks in a row - achieving the miraculous feat for Liverpool in 1947.
The bet got off to an exciting start too as Abdoulaye Doucoure hit a shot on target in Everton's draw with Brighton. However, the final two legs lost as Bournemouth and Manchester City to go over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring fell flat, as did Christian Norgaard to have two shots vs West Ham. He had one in injury-time.
My faith in Bournemouth is being tested despite them playing well vs City. We were on them draw no bet at 5/1 which did shorten closer to kick-off but they just didn't have the firepower to punish the double-treble seekers, going down narrowly 1-0. Two points lost on the weekend. Time to show some bouncebackability.
This partnership is on fire - and this looks a perfect game to cash in on either Leon Bailey assisting Ollie Watkins or Watkins assisting Bailey. Luton's man-for-man style is seriously good to watch but it leaves them exposed against dangerous players who relish one-on-ones - step forward Watkins and especially Bailey.
The goal-assist combo has clicked six times in just 1,261 minutes on the pitch together this season - that means a goal every 210 minutes and I think the relationship is only set to blossom further. It's not quite Kevin De Bruyne-Erling Haaland levels of wavelength but it's an electric duo nonetheless. The 4/1 looks pretty huge to me. It's a double pointer.
Bailey is actually working at a higher per 90 goal contribution ratio than Watkins at 1.07, so he's either scoring or assisting more than once a game. It works out at 15 goals or assists in 13 starts. Those numbers put him among the elite but he's not being priced up like it, especially against a team like Luton who will offer him so much space and Amari'i Bell, one of their standout defenders and the one tasked with stopping Bailey, is a major doubt after hobbling off vs Man City.
Bailey's price of 5/6 with Sky Bet to score or assist looks a winner in waiting.
The 10/11 with Sky Bet on both teams scoring in Tottenham's game against Crystal Palace and the game producing over 2.5 goals looks a cracking angle to exploit when it has landed in 94 per cent of Tottenham's last 16 games.
Crystal Palace can be relied upon in the scoring department. I suspect we're seeing a new manager bounce with Oliver Glasner in charge with fresh ideas and philosophises likely to inspire after almost a year of Roy Hodgson's monotonous style. Having Eberechi Eze available, back from a hamstring injury, is another huge boost when you consider Palace's win percentage rockets from 9.5 per cent to 37 per cent with him in the starting XI.
Hopefully the treble can be completed on Sunday where Burnley and Bournemouth has the makings of a low-scoring affair.
Burnley have scored just 25 goals this season with 20 per cent of those coming in one match when beating Sheffield United. Their expected goals total is the worst in the league at 23.63, they've created the fewest biggest chances and have failed to score in 10 of their 26 matches.
And now they have to face one of the best defensive units in the Premier League. Yes, Bournemouth are winless in seven Premier League games but over the last 14 Premier League games, the data is telling me they are the fifth best team in the Premier League.
They could be without Dominic Solanke, who is undergoing assessment on a knee issue, which only adds to their issues in forward areas as he's scored 46 per cent of their goals this season. He didn't play in midweek against Leicester and Bournemouth were woeful with their finishing, recording 15 shots off target across the 120 minutes.
They now haven't scored a goal from their last 40 shots across two games and have scored just six goals in their last seven games. Unders looks the play.
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