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Sunday 24 September 2023 10:56, UK
After tipping up the 0-0 between Chelsea and Bournemouth and finding Gustavo Hamer to score first at 22/1 last week, Jones Knows is back in the predictions chair.
Doctor, just hook this game straight into my veins please. This could be an adrenaline rush of an encounter full of goals, incidents, passion and drama.
For a potential betting interest, I want to be with the Spurs attack across the prop markets. My eyes have been drawn to James Maddison and his price surrounding his shots on target. He is absolutely revelling in being the centre of attention for Ange Postecoglou, to the extent he's had more shots on target and created more chances per 90 this season than Harry Kane did last season, albeit we're dealing with a small sample size.
That said, his tally of 11 shots on target is only bettered by Erling Haaland (16) and the playmaker has had at least one shot on target in every Premier League match in a Spurs shirt. That makes the 4/6 with Sky Bet on him having at least another very appealing and I wouldn't put people off having a nibble at the 7/2 for him to register two or more shots on target too.
Brighton are a majestic football club with the best young manager in world football leading their charge - but the markets are well aware of that. This is why they go off as short as 1/3 with Sky Bet to win a Premier League home game.
Excuse the trumpeting, but I'm sitting quite pretty at 8/1 for a Brighton top-four finish, yet, I do have doubts about their ability to consistently post big performances with the added extra of the Europa League now on their workflow.
There were a few examples last season of Roberto De Zerbi's side failing to back up a big performance. Take for instance their 3-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest after pushing Manchester United to penalties in the FA Cup semi-final and their quite ridiculous 5-1 home defeat to Everton that followed a 1-0 win over United in the Premier League. De Zerbi does have a deeper squad to work with this season and is a shrewd cookie when it comes to team selection. Saying that, I'm willing to take them on here after their first-ever European night, with Bournemouth on the double chance readily available at 9/4 with Sky Bet.
Chelsea haven't won any of the last 22 Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top 10, losing 12 of those matches. With confidence low and still no signs of their attacking players being able to arrest that expected goals deficiency, it's so easy to swerve them at 17/20 with Sky Bet and put faith in Aston Villa to get a result.
Instead of the outright markets, my punting instincts are being drawn to the Chelsea offside lines. Yes, I've banged on about it so much but if an edge remains, don't fear backing it again and again. Opposition offsides against Aston Villa remain a sustainable angle of attack.
In their last eight away games, Villa have caught the opposition offside 42 times with seven of those matches seeing the opposition rack up at least three offsides against Villa's aggressive high line. That's a per match average of 5.25 offsides. Chelsea to be caught offside five or more times in this one is a 7/2 shot with Sky Bet or those that like to play shorter can back Raheem Sterling, a willing runner in behind, to be caught offside one or more times at 10/11.
Since leaving Everton, David Moyes has managed 39 times away at either Manchester United, Manchester City, Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea or Liverpool and has yet to register a victory in a league match, with just six of those ending in draws.
That's 33 defeats, yet 17 of those came by just a one-goal margin. This means when Moyes takes a team to a 'big six' rival, there is a 43 per cent chance that his team will lose by one goal from quite a hefty sample size of games. It makes sense as his style does lead to no-thrills match-ups where it can be a slog for the opposition to find a way through. That has been on show already this season where he has frustrated the likes of Brighton, Chelsea and Manchester City whilst also offering plenty of danger on the counter.
Splitting stakes on a Liverpool 1-0 and 2-1 win with Sky Bet at 9/1 and 7/1 could be a profitable plan of attack.
Newcastle's lack of confidence and fluidity in the final third does make them wobbly favourites at 4/9 with Sky Bet, especially up against an opposition who have found stability and are functioning as a unit.
Over their past five matches, Eddie Howe's team are only operating at a non-penalty expected goals tally of 0.88 per game - that's over an expected goal down from their 38-game average of 1.89 per 90 across last season. Of course, that tally will increase with time as the difficulty of their fixture list eases slightly, but I'll want to see some evidence of improvement before putting full trust in them.
With the predicted tougher-than-expected task of breaking down the Blades, it could prove profitable to back the Newcastle corner count line. They were the Premier League kings at winning corners last season, with 270 - that was 32 more than any other side. That bulky return stems from a style of football that leads to plenty of scenarios where corners can be won down the channels, where Howe likes to create overloads. That corner return averaged out at 7.1 per match last season so I was surprised to see the line of Evens available for them to win seven or more corners here in a game where they will dominate territory.
Sheffield United will defend deep, and frustrate, with a focus on soaking up pressure. They have conceded an average of 8.8 corners per match this season, shipping 12 vs Man City and a whopping 15 to Tottenham. If you fancy a repeat of similar numbers, you can get 14/1 with Sky Bet on Newcastle winning 12 or more corners - it's a bet that would have won in Newcastle away days at Palace, Everton and Wolves last season. But those who like to play a bit safer should attack the seven or more line at Evens.
