Match highlights of every Premier League game to be shown on the Sky Sports website and app just after full time; watch Nottingham Forest vs Leeds and Tottenham vs Manchester City all live on Sky Sports on Super Sunday
Sunday 5 February 2023 17:37, UK
We're all set for another enthralling weekend of Premier League action and tipster Jones Knows is back with his array of insights, analysis and betting angles.
I had to do a double take when reading that Leeds have taken the fewest points of any Premier League team away from home this season. The win at Liverpool and draws at Southampton and Newcastle are all they've mustered. It's a run of results that is a tad misleading as when assessing the performance data they deserved more from defeats at Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Leicester and Tottenham. In those four matches they created 6.97 worth of expected goals and conceded just 5.92, theoretically winning that aggregate expected goals battle yet they came away with zero points. Harsh.
This is a Leeds team that are giving off all the signals that they should rate higher than mere relegation fodder - but it is taking a bit of patience to keep faith with them. Forest, much improved but still limited in the final third and without two key players in Dean Henderson and Morgan Gibbs-White, might just be the opponents against whom it all clicks for Jesse Marsch. Since their return to Premier League in 2020, Leeds have won all five away games against promoted sides by a 14-3 aggregate. The price is tight enough at 8/5 with Sky Bet for an away win so getting a bit braver and banking on Leeds to win by two or more goals at 5/1 is worth a small interest.
I'm swimming against the market with this one as in I'm opposing Manchester City and backing a low scoring affair.
Only one of City's last 15 away games against 'big six' opposition, barring Liverpool, have produced four or more goals and all five of their last meetings at Tottenham in all competitions have seen under 2.5 goals backers collect.
City's attack isn't exactly purring right now either, especially away from home. Erling Haaland has only scored in one of his last six away appearances in all competitions whilst overall City have only found the net six times in their last eight away games, only scoring two or more in just one of those matches - away at Leeds on Boxing Day.
Tottenham, with a full-strength squad, have shown glimpses since the restart of the form that took them to a top-four finish in the second half of last season under Antonio Conte. Such was the quality and ruthlessness of those performances it led to Spurs being third favourites for the title this season at just 9/1 with Sky Bet. If this team are starting to peak back towards those levels of performances, then they can avoid defeat against a far-from-flowing City. And remember, Tottenham have won all four meetings with City at the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium without conceding.
