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Sunday 23 October 2022 18:34, UK
Our predictions guru Jones Knows thinks Antonio Conte's Tottenham will be frustrated by Newcastle on Sunday as he takes aim at all 10 Premier League encounters this weekend.
Will we see an Aston Villa reaction here after Steven Gerrard's departure?
Before Gerrard was chopped on Thursday night, I was plotting Brentford to take advantage of Villa's weakness defending set pieces, and although we're venturing into the unknown about how Villa will set up I'm still heading down that avenue. When a team is dysfunctional, opposition teams like to test their mettle when having to defend their box, and Brentford rank third for expected goals created from set pieces this season.
Ben Mee is top of the Brentford list when it comes to scanning the prices for an attacking threat from set pieces. He has registered seven headed shots this season, including a goal in the win over Manchester United. The 9/2 with Sky Bet for him to have a headed shot on target makes sense.
Leeds are now seven without a win and have scored just one goal in their last four games. You know things are starting to turn for a manager when the previous manager's name is being chanted by the fanbase.
But are things really that bad? A look at their performance metrics over that seven-game run doesn't showcase a team nosediving towards a relegation scrap. In only one of those games did they fail to record an expected goals tally above 1.00 and that was when playing with 10-men against Aston Villa for almost all of the second half. And, in their last four games they have had 46 shots, 11 on target and bagged an expected goals figure of 4.52.
That said, their second half performance at Leicester when the home side were playing in front of a nervy home crowd was turgid and lacked belief. I'm still of the belief that Jesse Marsch's way will bring spells of good results but I'd rather back them when morale and confidence is flowing.
The goal line looks the angle to exploit here with Fulham's aggressive and open style always raising the possibility of a goal-heavy encounter. Even though they kept a clean sheet at home to Villa, they shipped an expected goals against tally of 1.1 in the opening 60 minutes before Douglas Luiz was sent off. It's a defence that remains officially the worst in the Premier League when it comes to the performance metrics with 19.68 expected goals against conceded.
Marco Silva's team have seen 10 of their 11 fixtures produce more than 2.5 goals, so the 4/6 with Sky Bet should be a starting point for anyone getting involved in this encounter.
I'm going to approach this clash with the same philosophy as the Liverpool fixture as there are signs that Arsenal's players are feeling the effects of the intense early season schedule. This is their 15th game of the season already and this one comes just 66 hours after grinding their way past PSV in the Europa League.
As previously mentioned, I'm not sure teams have the energy or even perhaps the need to dish out unnecessary hammerings and this game screams a low scoring Arsenal win which would be their ninth victory on the spin.
Arsenal have conceded just 12 goals in their last 17 games away from home in the Premier League against 'non big six' opposition, winning all three of those fixtures this season at Brentford, Bournemouth and Leeds without conceding a goal. Southampton, whose attacking metrics this season are continuing to deteriorate, have scored just three goals in their last six Premier League games. An Arsenal win to nil at 15/8 with Sky Bet makes sense but I'm always looking to be greedy so I'd rather play the Gunners to win and under 2.5 goals in the match, meaning we're hoping for 0-1 or 0-2 victory at 3/1. The safest play is to take the under 3.5 goals line at 4/7 with Sky Bet.
If something isn't broke, eh? That's my way of approaching a betting angle if it continues to deliver and the bookmakers don't adjust their pricing. Harvey Barnes did us a nice favour on Thursday at 15/2 with Sky Bet, officially being declared as the first goalscorer of the match after the opening goal was an own goal. That said, Barnes was about to tuck that one home too, so it was a justified winning selection despite the slice of luck.
He remains priced up very healthily at 11/1 to score first and 4/1 anytime despite being Leicester's most attacking weapon along with James Maddison, who returns from suspension here. Barnes is playing as an out and out right forward with not many defensive responsibilities and I'd expect his goal return to keep on improving between now and the World Cup break.
The triangle involving him, Maddison and the rapidly improving Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is exciting to watch and the addition of authority at the back with Wout Faes is making Leicester harder to score against.
Wolves remain the joint lowest scorers in English football with Gillingham (5 goals) and have not scored more than one goal in any of their last 14 Premier League games. Away win for me.
All roads lead to this being a low-scoring encounter, settled by a moment of magic or a mistake. Both teams play sensible and structured styles of football and Newcastle's defence certainly has the capability to keep Tottenham quiet.
This season, Eddie Howe's men have conceded the fewest goals (9), kept the joint most clean sheets (5 - with Man City) and have shipped the joint fewest open play goals (6). It's a run of defensive soundness that stretches back through 2022. Only Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea have conceded fewer goals than Newcastle in that period (29).
Spurs do have issues in forward areas, too.
The wing-back area remains a huge problem for Antonio Conte. When Conte's teams are flying, the wing-backs are absolutely crucial to their offensive output. Well, Ivan Perisic, Emerson Royal, Ryan Sessegnon and Matt Doherty have played 1,955 minutes of football this season in the Premier League and their overall returns in the final third have been underwhelming. Between them they have scored just once - Sessegnon's goal vs Southampton - and have managed just one assist from open play. The reliance on Harry Kane - and Dejan Kulusevski when fit - will only take you so far and when a streetwise team with a strong structure are in front of them, Spurs do find it hard for creativity in wide areas.
The under 2.5 goals line at 10/11 with Sky Bet stands out.
Football is a fine-margin and low-scoring sport - which can lead to short bursts of results that mask a team's true capabilities. That's why so much emphasis and respect is given to performance metrics to analyse the true level of a team rather than focusing just on results. Two men that got ahead of the market in that regard, Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham, now both own Premier League football clubs (Brighton and Brentford, respectively). Says it all really.
Bournemouth may have picked up under Gary O'Neil but their underlying data still has them ranked as most certainly a team likely to be finishing in the bottom three. The Cherries have had the fewest shots (86), fewest touches in opposition box (164), lowest possession (38.3 per cent) and lowest expected goals total (6.9) in the Premier League this season.
It explains why they're a 4/6 chance with Sky Bet to be relegated and why West Ham - a team below them in the table - are 8/13 with Sky Bet to win this match. It's a fair price too.
Talking of data, no team has created a higher expected goals total in their last three matches than the Hammers (6.56) and that included a trip to Liverpool. That tells me that West Ham are creating good quality chances and it's only a matter of time before they give someone a good beating. This game could be it. West Ham to win by three or more goals could be worth a swing at 9/2 with Sky Bet.
