Premier League top-five race: Why Champions League qualification is so crucial for chasing pack
A top-five finish in the Premier League table now guarantees qualification for next season's Champions League and, with just six points separating the five clubs fighting for the places below Liverpool and Arsenal, the final seven gameweeks promise to be thrilling
Sunday 13 April 2025 15:53, UK
The race for Champions League football is more competitive than ever this season, with five teams now able to qualify through the Premier League.
As we approach the end of the campaign, just six points separates five teams fighting for the remaining places below leaders Liverpool and Arsenal with seven gameweeks left to play.
Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, Newcastle, Man City and Aston Villa are the top contenders for qualification, but Fulham, Brighton and potentially Bournemouth are outsiders to keep an eye on.
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Here, we take a look at the probability of each team securing Champions League football and analyse what it would mean for them moving forward...
Nottingham Forest
- Position: 3rd
- Games played: 32
- Points: 57
- Goal difference: +13
Sky Sports News senior reporter Rob Dorsett:
At this stage last season, Nottingham Forest were outside the Premier League relegation zone on goal difference. Now, they have clear water in third spot, four points above Newcastle in fifth. That is an incredible turnaround for a club which has long-held (but long term) Champions League ambitions. Nuno Espirito Santo's team are well ahead of expectations.
It looks inevitable that Forest will be playing European football next season, which would be a huge statement in its own right. But if they could finish top five, and make it into European football's elite club competition, that could provide a galvanising force to their transfer plans - and resources - for the summer. And just as importantly, in tying down their growing list of star players.
Matz Sels, Murillo, Elliot Anderson, Morgan Gibbs-White, Anthony Elanga, Callum Hudson-Odoi…all are being monitored by some of Europe's richest clubs, and while all are thriving and enjoying their football at the City Ground, the chance to play Champions League football in the Garibalidi red shirt would give them more reason to see their long-term futures in the East Midlands.
If Forest finish top five, I'd expect Nuno Espirito Santo to sanction a big spending spree. He has always favoured a small, tight-knit squad, but he knows he would want to have two separate starting XIs at his disposal, so that the quality doesn't dip when clusters of games clutter the calendar.
Champions League football could be worth upwards of £40-50m for Forest. That figure is a drop in the ocean compared to the extraordinary wealth of their shipping tycoon owner, Evangelos Marinakis. But it would be hugely significant in terms of Forest's spending power in the transfer market.
Marinakis is worth an estimated £2bn, but the PSR rules mean he can't lavish as much cash as he would like to on the squad. Champions League qualification would enable him to do just that, without breaking the rules.
Forest's remaining fixtures in all competitions:
- Tottenham Hotspur (A) - Premier League - Monday April 21, kick-off 8pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
- Manchester City (N) - FA Cup semi-final - Sunday April 27, kick-off 4.30pm
- Brentford (H) - Premier League - Thursday May 1, kick-off 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
- Crystal Palace (A) - Premier League - Monday May 5, kick-off 8pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
- Leicester City (H) - Premier League - Sunday May 11, kick-off 2.15pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
- West Ham United (A) - Premier League - Sunday May 18, kick-off 3pm
- Chelsea (H) - Premier League - Sunday May 25, kick-off 4.00pm
Chelsea
- Position: 4th
- Games played: 31
- Points: 53
- Goal difference: 17
- Probability of top-five finish: 43.4 per cent
Sky Sports News chief reporter Kaveh Solhekol:
Chelsea simply have to qualify for the Champions League.
Enzo Maresca knows the score. Earlier this season he seemed to downplay the importance of qualification, but the club's demanding owners are unlikely to accept any excuses if Maresca fails to deliver on the main target for the season.
Everything at Chelsea depends on qualification. The extra revenue would transform finances, especially when added to the up to £97m they could make from playing in the Club World Cup this summer.
It would also have a major impact on their strategy in the transfer market, their plans for a new stadium and even the future ownership structure of the club.
Put simply, Chelsea need to be playing in the Champions League every season, not just next season.
Chelsea's remaining fixtures in all competitions:
- Ipswich Town (H) - Premier League - Sunday April 13, kick-off 2pm
- Legia Warsaw (H) - UEFA Conference League - Thursday April 17, kick-off 8pm
- Fulham (A) - Premier League - Sunday April 20, kick-off 2pm
- Everton (H) - Premier League - Saturday April 26, kick-off 12.30pm
- Liverpool (H) - Premier League - Sunday May 4, kick-off4.30pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
- Newcastle United (A) - Premier League - Saturday May 10, kick-off12.30pm
- Manchester United (H) - Premier League - Sunday May 18, kick-off 3pm
- Nottingham Forest (A) - Premier League - Sunday May 25, kick-off 4pm
Newcastle
- Position: 7th
- Games played: 30
- Points: 53
- Goal difference: +13
Sky Sports News North East reporter Keith Downie:
For Newcastle, qualifying for next year's Champions League will be most important to the players they currently own, rather than those they covet.
The promise of Champions League football should convince Alexander Isak to stay for at least another season, and buy time for the Swede to decide where he wants to be long term. I think even the most ardent Newcastle fan will understand one of the world's best strikers wanting to play on Europe's biggest stage. So this feels quite critical.
Same could apply for the likes of Bruno Guimarães and Anthony Gordon. Both were among a group of players who were unsettled by the speculation over their own futures last summer with Newcastle forced to sell with hours of the June 30 PSR cut-off left, or face a points deduction.
Bruno had a June 30 deadline on his release clause, while Newcastle entered talks with Liverpool over the transfer of Gordon. Isak could've gone too. But the club frantically managed to raise £60m with the sales of Yankuba Minteh and Elliot Anderson instead.
The likes of Bruno, Gordon and Isak all need to be showcasing their talents in the Champions League. And the club are aware of this, too.
It will, of course, help attract players as well, and would-be signings will be aware of the scenes of celebration when Newcastle lifted the Carabao Cup and ended 70 years of pain last month. It has sold the club on a global level.
And Eddie Howe deserves a big window, as well. He's delivered silverware despite being unable to sign a player of note in the last three windows.
His early signings have all been good and he's improved the existing squad. Just look at Jacob Murphy. Imagine what he could do with a big window, while keeping hold of his prize assets.
Champions League football is key to the latter, and gives him more longer-term spending power for the former.
Newcastle's remaining fixtures in all competitions:
- Manchester United (H) - Premier League - Sunday April 13, kick-off 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
- Crystal Palace (H) - Premier League - Wednesday April 16, kick-off 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
- Aston Villa (A) - Premier League - Saturday April 19, kick-off 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
- Ipswich Town (H) - Premier League - Saturday April 26, kick-off 3pm
- Brighton & Hove Albion (A) - Premier League - Sunday May 4, kick-off 2pm, live on Sky Sports Football
- Chelsea (H) - Premier League - Saturday May 10, kick-off 12.30pm
- Arsenal (A) - Premier League - Sunday May 18, kick-off 3pm
- Everton (H) - Premier League - Sunday May 25, kick-off 4pm
Man City
- Position: 4th
- Games played: 32
- Points: 55
- Goal difference: +20
Sky Sports News reporter Ben Ransom:
I sat down with Pep Guardiola last week and I asked him exactly this question, because their incredible growth as a club now makes it difficult to imagine a Champions League without Man City.
They've qualified for the competition for each of the last 14 seasons, and Pep was honest enough to tell me that it is their number one priority between now and the end of the season to do so again.
More important than lifting the FA Cup and avoiding a trophy-less season. The reason I asked? The finances.
We're all expecting City to undergo something of a rebuild this summer and any additional money in the pot would be extremely helpful given Kevin De Bruyne is one of the players the club needs to replace. Those top-level signings do not come cheap.
However, Pep was also quite clear that if they don't make it then the club will still thrive. There are no concerns about PSR as revenue last season topped £715m - the most any Premier League club has ever generated.
This summer there's a potential prize pot worth close to £100m on offer at the inaugural FIFA Club World Cup, which would also help.
It might be the most surprising outcome if City are one of the teams to miss out, but bizarrely they might be the club that feels the impact the least.
City's remaining fixtures in all competitions:
- Crystal Palace (H) - Premier League - Saturday April 12, kick-off 12.30pm
- Everton (A) - Premier League - Saturday April 19, kick-off 3pm
- Aston Villa (H) - Premier League - Tuesday April 22, kick-off 8pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
- Nottingham Forest (N) - FA Cup Semi-Final - Sunday April 27, kick-off 4.30pm
- Wolverhampton Wanderers (H) - Premier League - Friday May 2, kick-off 8pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
- Southampton (A) - Premier League - Saturday May 10, kick-off 3pm
- Bournemouth (H) - Premier League - Sunday May 18, kick-off 3pm
- Fulham (A) - Premier League - Sunday May 25, kick-off 4pm
Aston Villa
- Position: 5th
- Games played: 32
- Points: 54
- Goal difference: 3
- Probability of top-five finish: 21.1 per cent
Sky Sports News reporter Danyal Khan:
Champions League qualification is incredibly important for Aston Villa if they want to continue the momentum Unai Emery has built over the last three seasons.
Over the last 12 months or so, Villa have had to rely on player sales to generate revenue and give them more flexibility in the transfer market with PSR in mind.
That's partly why players such as Douglas Luiz and Moussa Diaby were sold over the summer and then Jhon Duran and Diego Carlos were moved on in the winter transfer window. Especially Duran, who fetched £64m in that deal with Saudi Pro League side Al Nassr.
If they want to entice loanees Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford to sign permanently and other players of a similar calibre to join they're going to need Champions League football. Emery himself can do that too, of course.
But for Aston Villa, if they want to continue to compete with the best, as we've seen in the Champions League this season against the likes of Bayern Munich and now Paris Saint-Germain, qualification is vital for them to build on that.
And, perhaps more crucially, for them to generate enough revenue to invest in the squad this summer with all clubs conscious of being compliant with the Premier League's spending rules.
Villa's remaining fixtures in all competitions:
- Paris Saint-Germain (H) - UEFA Champions League - Tuesday April 15, kick-off 8pm
- Newcastle United (H) - Premier League - Saturday April 19, kick-off 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
- Manchester City (A) - Premier League - Tuesday April 22, kick-off 8pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
- Crystal Palace (N) - FA Cup semi-final - Saturday April 26, kick-off 5.15pm
- Fulham (H) - Premier League - Saturday May 3, kick-off 12.30pm
- Bournemouth (A) - Premier League - Saturday May 10, kick-off 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
- Tottenham Hotspur (H) - Premier League - Sunday May 18, kick-off 3pm
- Manchester United (A) - Premier League - Sunday May 25, kick-off 4.00pm
