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Sunday 1 September 2024 15:50, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide his insight and best angles on every Premier League game...
I'm very keen to oppose Chelsea here at 4/7 with Sky Bet but finding a sensible betting strategy to attack has proven difficult. That's due to the prospect of Chelsea being able to run hot at any point, like their whirlwind second-half goal rush at Wolves last weekend. It's therefore difficult to simply play the Palace double chance or try and get them onside in a handicap.
I've decided to back the both teams to score and over 2.5 goals angle at 4/5, as if Palace keep constructing their attacks like they have done against Brentford and West Ham, goals are going to fall their way.
Since beating Liverpool, Oliver Glasner's team have only failed to score once in their last 10 games. That came last weekend against the Hammers but Palace still created 1.53 worth of expected goals. They can help add to the scoring in what should be a lively game.
It's a shame the market is completely aligned with my theory of this being a goal-fest - and one that Tottenham stand a fair chance of winning. The last seven meetings between these two teams in the Premier League have produced 34 goals to an average of 4.9 per game, with Newcastle winning the last two games at St James' Park by an aggregate 10-1 scoreline.
I'd be very surprised if we see anything like that one-sided encounter as Spurs look in a good, consistent place while Newcastle are still searching for the right balance in defence. Eddie Howe knows that remains a weakness, hence why he's been desperate to land Marc Guehi from Crystal Palace.
The price doesn't appeal enough to make it an official play but Spurs to win and over 2.5 goals should give punters a good run at 9/4 with Sky Bet.
If you're of the persuasion that not that much has changed under Erik ten Hag since last season then the underlying statistics from the two Premier League meetings between United and Liverpool have to come into your thinking when making a decision on how this encounter will go.
The aggregate score over the two games may have read 2-2 (0-0 at Anfield and 2-2 at Old Trafford) yet Liverpool won the shot count (62-12), corner count (23-6), expected goals battle (6.06-1.4) and had more touches in the opposition box (109-29). The 17/20 with Sky Bet on the away win is going to lure many in based on those numbers.
A quirk regarding the Arne Slot era so far has been the dramatic contrast between halves, with Liverpool creating significantly more after the break with just 0.81 worth of expected goals in the first half and 4.5 in the second.
He may want to turn this into another 45-minute match where Liverpool keep things very controlled and quiet by negating United's weapons on the counter-attack. If so, a low scoring first half could play out and the 3/1 with Sky Bet for the game to be 0-0 at the break looks interesting.
