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Thursday 21 November 2024 21:32, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide more Premier League insight and tips up a 7/2 weekend double to attack.
We've profited nicely from Cole Palmer getting fouled this season but that ship has now sailed as the prices have shortened, however, there is another Chelsea player fouls angle that has caught my eye.
And that is the aggressive nature of their centre-backs since Enzo Maresca has taken the job.
Both centre-backs are happy to try and win the ball when the opposition centre-forward gives them a sniff and this is leading to fouls being committed. Between Wesley Fofana and Levi Colwill this season they have made 35 fouls between them in their 11 Premier League games.
Of the 11 centre forwards to have faced Chelsea this season, they have been fouled a whopping 24 times - that's an average of 2.6 fouls per game. So, step forward Jamie Vardy, who looks a cracking bet to be fouled at least once at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
If like me, you are holding betting slips for Arsenal to win trophies this season then they need to get going - and fast.
The Gunners have dropped 14 points in their last nine games having dropped just five in their previous 20 and haven't registered a clean sheet for seven matches.
Some will see this as a potential banana skin for Mikel Arteta's men, who are 1/3 with Sky Bet for the home win. I'm still a believer in this team though and their title credentials as they can point to genuine excuses during a relentless run of tough fixtures where key personnel, like Martin Odegaard, have been missing.
Now is the time to park those excuses though and start winning football matches.
It won't be pretty. It won't be comfortable. But this is where Arsenal's season could just start to gather momentum again with what would be their 2000th victory in a top-flight game.
Backing 4/7 shots with Sky Bet like Aston Villa here will send you broke quickly.
Unai Emery is a master football manager but he has overachieved with this Villa team.
That is starting to showcase itself now over a bigger sample size with Villa winning just five of their last 15 Premier League games across two seasons, keeping just one clean sheet in their last 16 matches. Emery is also on a run of losing four matches across all competitions for the first time in his managerial career. They are being overrated by the markets still.
Team news is vital here though as Eberechi Eze and Adam Wharton both are in a race to be fit.
Oliver Glasner has implemented a solid process and gets his teams functioning well out of possession but they are lacking the cutting edge that Eze and Wharton possess. If they both start, an away win looks overpriced at 4/1 with Sky Bet.
Bournemouth are the experts at dropping points and Brighton love chasing a game.
This means we could be in for a cracker down on the south coast. Andoni Iraola's team have dropped 32 points from winning positions since the start of last season, including in their last clash with Brentford where they roared into an early lead but lost the game 3-2.
Meanwhile, Brighton are the only team in the Premier League this season yet to lose after conceding first, winning twice against Tottenham and Manchester City and salvaging a point in matches with Nottingham Forest and Arsenal.
In what could be a high-scoring encounter, the 25/1 with Sky Bet on Bournemouth winning at half-time and Brighton winning at full-time could have a squeak at a huge price.
Brentford are usually easy pickings for teams in need of a home victory but Everton are very untrustworthy under Sean Dyche to deliver at the moment and, as always, the mood is one of frustration at Goodison Park.
The Bees are such poor travellers though, losing 15 of their last 19 Premier League matches on the road where they are struggling to implement their powerful style of play.
The draw looks the obvious call at 23/10 with Sky Bet from an outright perspective in a low-key betting heat.
I think Fulham might just be heading for a special season.
Top half? Certainly.
Top six? At 7/1 with Sky Bet I'd be a player.
Top four? Don't discount them at 25/1.
This season could be one of those extraordinary cases where a team outperforms their projected pre-season prediction and gatecrashes the Premier League party towards the top.
It has been a weird season already for how the table is structured and actually is pointing towards a more competitive league - just four points separate third and 13th. In seven of the last eight previous seasons, that gap has been at least nine points at the same stage.
Fulham have taken a bulky 18 points from their 11 Premier League games and their underlying numbers behind those results are equally as impressive, suggesting they should be even higher in the table.
And that hefty position according to that data stems from the fact they've won the expected goals battle in their last 12 matches across all competitions, including in defeats at Manchester City and Aston Villa.
All this evidence shows that Marco Silva's men are putting in consistent performance levels, are restricting teams with their defensive process and creating good chances at the other end. If you sustain that mantra over the course of a season, you are going to rack up a fair points haul and challenge towards the top end of the standings.
Home win here then with many more likely to come between now and the end of the campaign. Dark horses, indeed.
Could four on the bounce become five for Pep Guardiola?
Tottenham have won five of the last nine Premier League meetings with Man City, showing a clever knack of subduing Guardiola's team. Plus, their attack remains a dangerous animal.
Spurs are the top goalscorers in the league, have the highest non-penalty expected goals total, rank top for possession won in the final third and, a key one for this game, have scored seven goals from fast breaks - the most of any team. That is City's kryptonite.
There are lots of backable angles from a Spurs perspective that stand out. The main one is Dejan Kulusevski to score or assist at 2/1 with Sky Bet.
The Swede is just dynamite when given space to work in by an opposition and was sensational against City in the Carabao Cup at creating those transitions to burst past the City midfield and get Spurs into dangerous parts of the pitch.
He's grabbed seven goal involvements in his last five starts against Guardiola's side, including two assists in that 2-1 win recently and has scored at the Etihad Stadium on his last three appearances.
Southampton remain like a bad Christmas present. They go to pieces in the box.
The middle bit is quite attractive and you can see what Russell Martin is trying to achieve but in key moments in matches, in key areas of the pitch, the Saints remain a feeble outfit.
Liverpool are bound to punish that soft underbelly at various moments in this match, most likely from set pieces where Southampton are dreadful at defending their box.
They have conceded seven goals from set pieces this season to a backdrop of 7.28 worth of expected goals so the numbers do add up. Strangely, Arne Slot's team have actually struggled to create many moments from their attacking set plays, registering just 29 shots - the fewest of any team from such situations this season.
Nevertheless, in Virgil van Dijk they have an aerial dual-winning maestro who ranks third in first contacts from attacking corners this season (7) - only James Tarkowski and Gabriel have won more.
Van Dijk has scored two headers this season already and a third might be on the way with Sky Bet dangling 14/1 about the prospect.
If past trends are anything to go by Ruben Amorim's first game in charge could be a forgettable and low-scoring one.
But that's fine if we're nicking some profit from it.
On the last 11 occasions a 'big six' team have appointed a permanent manager during a season, that manager's first game usually is a low-scoring one as he gets to grips with his new players.
It's relevant from a betting perspective that eight of those 11 matches have gone under 2.5 goals.
Jurgen Klopp's first game for Liverpool ended 0-0 at Spurs, Mikel Arteta opened with a 1-1 at Bournemouth, Thomas Tuchel oversaw a 0-0 draw with Wolves on his bow as Chelsea boss and Antonio Conte started with a 0-0 draw for Spurs at Everton.
These results do point towards a new manager coming in and keeping things very simple for his first game.
And the new man is inheriting a very tame Manchester United attack that have scored just 18 goals in their last 16 Premier League games - that's an average of 1.13 goals per game. Of ever-present Premier League teams during that time, only Everton are averaging fewer goals per game.
The under 2.5 goals angle rates as a juicy bet to attack at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
What are West Ham under Julen Lopetegui?
It looks like David Moyes football without the swashbuckling counter-attack style that led the club to some special places under his watch. Lopetegui's appointment is turning into one of the big mistakes of the summer.
On the road in 2024, West Ham's defence have conceded 35 goals in 14 games in the Premier League - that's an average of 2.5 goals per game and is the worst record of any ever-present Premier League team in that time. I'm fully expecting Newcastle to fill their boots here.
And, Joe Willock looks overpriced to get a goal. His goalscoring threat always remains underrated by the markets.
Since coming back into the team three games ago, he's had seven of Newcastle's 34 shots, meaning he's been responsible for 21 per cent of all their shot output. I'm expecting him to be to the fore yet again in a game where Newcastle are going to see lots of territory. The 4/1 on him scoring anytime with Sky Bet is a runner.
