Watch Chelsea vs Newcastle and Arsenal vs Liverpool live on Sky Sports on Sunday; play Super 6 for a chance to win £1m!; Crystal Palace vs Tottenham and West Ham vs Manchester United are Sunday's two other Premier League fixtures
Sunday 27 October 2024 16:14, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League card and thinks the draw is a big runner when Liverpool visit Arsenal.
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Judged by his performances when fit to start, notably against Man City and Chelsea, Romeo Lavia is going to be a breakout star for Chelsea this season. He is a smooth and silky player with the ball who has an incredible knack of turning into space past a press. His work out of possession is impressive too, winning 15 duels in those starts and registering five tackles.
That tackle count mirrors his numbers from his time at Southampton where he averaged 2.4 tackles per 90 in the 22/23 season. His impact on Chelsea will be big as they climb the table over the next few weeks and his tackle count here against an aggressive Newcastle midfield is worth a look. The 11/10 with Sky Bet for three or more looks good.
Tottenham are terrific but untrustworthy. Even in a spot like this playing away against a winless Crystal Palace whose fans could be about to turn on them, they make no appeal whatsoever to back them at 8/11 with Sky Bet for the away win. We need to get creative to support a Spurs angle and it comes in their ability to win corners.
An aggressive style of overloading the flanks and creating turnovers high up the pitch is leading to huge corner counts being racked up - they have won 76 this season already. Ange Postecoglou's team have won seven or more corners in seven of their eight fixtures this season - the only blot coming away at Manchester United where the game was over as a contest heading into the second half. That makes the Evens on offer with Sky Bet a lovely angle of attack.
West Ham have changed the key components of their defence and changed the manager but their woeful defensive output remains.
In 2024, the Hammers have conceded 2.19 goals per game from a sample size of 27 fixtures. It's the most of any ever-present Premier League team over that period. That's relegation numbers. The defeat at Tottenham means it's now just one clean sheet in their last 26 Premier League fixtures.
The absence of Mohammed Kudus, who is suspended for his rampage last weekend, only helps increase confidence in a pro-United angle here. The away win at 5/4 with Sky Bet is a tempter.
A better play is simply backing Bruno Fernandes to end his 952-minute goal drought in the Premier League. Nobody has had more Premier League shots without scoring than Fernandes (23) as some variance is going against him in front of goal.
The only thing that overcomes bad luck is hard work and Fernandes falls into that line of thinking. He is a trier and I'm expecting him to get back on the goals train soon enough as over the past five seasons he's scored 54 goals at a rate of a goal every 220 minutes. The 5/2 with Sky Bet for him to score anytime will do for me.
What an opportunity this is for Liverpool.
They have timed playing one of their toughest fixtures of the season perfectly with Arsenal missing a host of key players. The William Saliba factor is a big one. Since coming into the team two years ago, the Frenchman has only missed 11 Premier League matches but their goals conceded average goes from 0.8 per 90 with him to 1.6 without him.
But I can't back Liverpool at the prices as Arne Slot has already mentioned on Wednesday they'll do everything they can to "get a result" - he didn't say win the game. That implies he'll be taking a draw as a good result - as would Mikel Arteta considering their selection issues. To go seven points behind Liverpool even at this stage if they got beat would be psychologically damaging.
A draw suits both and it's the biggest price of all three outcomes at 12/5 with Sky Bet. That doesn't make sense, so it looks an interesting betting opportunity.
