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Sky Sports Predictor: Newcastle to miss out on Championship title to Brighton

Friday 13 January 2017 16:44, UK

Glenn Murray doubles Brighton's lead from the penalty spot
Image: Glenn Murray has spearheaded Brighton's promotion charge this season

Newcastle United have just a 37 per cent chance of winning the Sky Bet Championship title, according to Sky Sports’ Predictor.

Brighton, who currently have a two-point lead and a game in hand over the Magpies, are the hot favourites to win the division and promotion to the Premier League, according to the Predictor's algorithm, which takes into account form, home advantage, fixture schedule and margins of victory.

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The Seagulls - managed by Chris Hughton, who led Newcastle to the Championship title in 2010 - have a 57 per cent probability of taking the title, a lead of some 20 percentage points.

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Both sides are all but guaranteed a place in the top six, according to the predictor, and are by far the most likely teams to take the automatic promotion spots. Brighton have an 87 per cent chance of finishing in the top two, with Newcastle on 83 per cent.

Newcastle United's Dwight Gayle celebrates scoring his sides second goal with teammates during the Sky Bet Championship match at St James' Park, Newcastle.
Image: Newcastle are on track to secure an immediate return to the Premier League, according to the Premier Predictor

Aston Villa and Norwich, the other teams to be relegated from the Premiership last season alongside Newcastle, are expected to struggle to bounce straight back, even through the play-offs - they're given just 5 per cent and 16 per cent chances respectively of making the top six.

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Premier Predictor: Sky Bet Championship

Club Winner Top 2 Top 6 Relegation
Brighton 57% 87% >99% <1%
Newcastle 37% 83% >99% <1%
Reading 2% 10% 77% <1%
Leeds 2% 8% 74% <1%
Huddersfield 1% 5% 61% <1%
Sheff Wed 1% 2% 46% <1%
Derby <1% 2% 44% <1%
Fulham <1% 1% 26% <1%
Barnsley <1% <1% 20% <1%
Norwich <1% <1% 16% <1%
Preston <1% 1% 17% <1%
Birmingham <1% <1% 7% 1%
Aston Villa <1% <1% 5% 1%
Brentford <1% <1% 5% 1%
Ipswich <1% <1% 1% 3%
Wolves <1% <1% 1% 5%
Cardiff <1% <1% <1% 7%
QPR <1% <1% 1% 8%
Forest <1% <1% <1% 16%
Bristol City <1% <1% <1% 19%
Blackburn <1% <1% <1% 23%
Burton <1% <1% <1% 44%
Wigan <1% <1% <1% 74%
Rotherham <1% <1% <1% 97%

Looking forward to the weekend’s action, Brighton and Newcastle are both narrow favourites to win away from home, at Preston and Brentford respectively.

Villa are likely to come off worse in their Midlands derby at Wolves, but Norwich are favoured to beat struggling Rotherham.

Also See:

Championship Round 26 predictions

Home team Away Team Home Win Draw Away Win
Reading QPR 53% 27% 21%
Leeds Derby 46% 28% 26%
Birmingham Forest 47% 28% 25%
Bristol City Cradiff 43% 28% 29%
Burton Wigan 45% 28% 27%
Fulham Barnsley 53% 27% 21%
Ipswich Blackburn 45% 28% 27%
Preston Brighton 31% 28% 42%
Rotherham Norwich 29% 27% 44%
Sheff Wed Huddersfield 52% 27% 21%
Wolves Aston Villa 45% 28% 27%
Brentford Newcastle 29% 27% 44%

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