Sky Sports Predictor: Newcastle to miss out on Championship title to Brighton

Friday 13 January 2017 16:44, UK

Newcastle United have just a 37 per cent chance of winning the Sky Bet Championship title, according to Sky Sports’ Predictor.

Brighton, who currently have a two-point lead and a game in hand over the Magpies, are the hot favourites to win the division and promotion to the Premier League, according to the Predictor's algorithm, which takes into account form, home advantage, fixture schedule and margins of victory.

The Seagulls - managed by Chris Hughton, who led Newcastle to the Championship title in 2010 - have a 57 per cent probability of taking the title, a lead of some 20 percentage points.

Both sides are all but guaranteed a place in the top six, according to the predictor, and are by far the most likely teams to take the automatic promotion spots. Brighton have an 87 per cent chance of finishing in the top two, with Newcastle on 83 per cent.

Aston Villa and Norwich, the other teams to be relegated from the Premiership last season alongside Newcastle, are expected to struggle to bounce straight back, even through the play-offs - they're given just 5 per cent and 16 per cent chances respectively of making the top six.

Premier Predictor: Sky Bet Championship


Club	Winner	Top 2	Top 6	Relegation
Brighton	57%	87%	>99%	<1%
Newcastle	37%	83%	>99%	<1%
Reading	2%	10%	77%	<1%
Leeds	2%	8%	74%	<1%
Huddersfield	1%	5%	61%	<1%
Sheff Wed	1%	2%	46%	<1%
Derby	<1%	2%	44%	<1%
Fulham	<1%	1%	26%	<1%
Barnsley	<1%	<1%	20%	<1%
Norwich	<1%	<1%	16%	<1%
Preston	<1%	1%	17%	<1%
Birmingham	<1%	<1%	7%	1%
Aston Villa	<1%	<1%	5%	1%
Brentford	<1%	<1%	5%	1%
Ipswich	<1%	<1%	1%	3%
Wolves	<1%	<1%	1%	5%
Cardiff	<1%	<1%	<1%	7%
QPR	<1%	<1%	1%	8%
Forest	<1%	<1%	<1%	16%
Bristol City	<1%	<1%	<1%	19%
Blackburn	<1%	<1%	<1%	23%
Burton	<1%	<1%	<1%	44%
Wigan	<1%	<1%	<1%	74%
Rotherham	<1%	<1%	<1%	97%

Looking forward to the weekend’s action, Brighton and Newcastle are both narrow favourites to win away from home, at Preston and Brentford respectively.

Villa are likely to come off worse in their Midlands derby at Wolves, but Norwich are favoured to beat struggling Rotherham.

Championship Round 26 predictions


Home team	Away Team	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Reading	QPR	53%	27%	21%
Leeds	Derby	46%	28%	26%
Birmingham	Forest	47%	28%	25%
Bristol City	Cradiff	43%	28%	29%
Burton	Wigan	45%	28%	27%
Fulham	Barnsley	53%	27%	21%
Ipswich	Blackburn	45%	28%	27%
Preston	Brighton	31%	28%	42%
Rotherham	Norwich	29%	27%	44%
Sheff Wed	Huddersfield	52%	27%	21%
Wolves	Aston Villa	45%	28%	27%
Brentford	Newcastle	29%	27%	44%