Premier League predictions, odds and best bets: Chelsea can win at Arsenal, Fulham to beat Spurs
Watch Arsenal vs Chelsea, Leicester vs Manchester United and Liverpool vs Newcastle in the Carabao Cup final live on Sky Sports
Sunday 16 March 2025 16:33, UK
Our betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight and best bets for the Premier League fixtures and thinks Chelsea are a big price to beat Arsenal.
Carabao Cup final - Liverpool vs Newcastle kick-off 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
My instincts initially wanted to get against Liverpool with them dominating the outright betting at just 3/10 with Sky Bet to lift the trophy. But a quick scan of Eddie Howe's record with Newcastle against Liverpool and Manchester City completely put me off that idea. From 18 games against those two elite teams, Newcastle have won just once, losing 14 times and conceding 2.4 goals per game to a backdrop of 18.5 shots per game.
I'm heading to the goals market instead then.
Every time a final comes around at Wembley, I do think opposing goals at that stadium in that environment of high stakes is a sustainable long-term betting strategy. I'm convinced Wembley has the potential just to sap the momentum out of a game.
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In the last 41 domestic and European matches played at Wembley, the average goals per 90 stands at 1.94 goals in normal time over 41 games. And there's only been four games where the goal line has gone over 3.5 from those 41 matches. An incredibly profitable trend to follow.
Another piece of evidence to throw into the low-scoring theory for this match is related to how Premier League clubs have fared in their next game after being knocked out of the Champions League in extra-time or penalties. Exactly what Liverpool are facing here.
And from the last nine occasions, eight of those nine matches went under 2.5 goals and the total match goals in those nine games averaged just 1.6 per 90.
Yes, nine games is a very small sample size but I think it makes perfect sense that a team that have been both mentally and physically fatigued in a Champions League knockout game are going to feel the effects of that in their next game.
Under 2.5 goals at 5/4 with Sky Bet it is then.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0 (Liverpool to win on penalties) | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (5/4 with Sky Bet)
Leicester vs Manchester United, Sunday 7pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
With Patrick Dorgu still suspended, Noussair Mazraoui will have to fill in down the right flank in the wing-back role. It's a position he's not overly suited to, especially when asked to join in with the attacking sequences but he is a safe pair of hands. A betting angle to note when he does play in this role is his fouls committed data - which is spiking.
He's made 18 fouls in his last 10 starts when playing as the right wing-back, clearing the two or more fouls line on six occasions. Those numbers make the 6/4 with Sky Bet on him committing two or more fouls again a value play as just a 40 per cent probability underplays the true probability which is nearer 55 per cent.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Jones Knows' best bet...
- 1pt double on Nottingham Forest to beat Ipswich & under 2.5 goals in Carabao Cup final (7/2 with Sky Bet)
