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Thursday 24 October 2024 18:03, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League card and spots a 3/1 goalscorer angle on Friday Night Football.
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Steve Cooper has finally worked out that Facundo Buonanotte is his best attacking player and since he's been pushed to the forefront playing in the pocket, Leicester have looked a far more dangerous team.
I'm not convinced they'll stay up as their underlying numbers remain very poor: Leicester have worst shot difference (-72) and best expected goals overperformance (+3.69) of any team in the Premier League this season.
But with Buonanotte in sparkling form Leicester are carrying much more threat in the final third - he's scored in back-to-back wins now. It's worth rolling the dice on him again - this time taking the 3/1 with Sky Bet on him scoring anytime rather than the first goalscorer price like we did last weekend with annoying consequences.
I'm keen for taking on Aston Villa after a Champions League fixture as the season progresses when the price is right.
No matter how much Unai Emery suggests otherwise, he is all about getting his players to peak for those big midweek nights and that was the case again on Tuesday where they were full of spark and energy when beating Bologna.
If they repeat those levels then flaky Bournemouth won't be able to handle them but I'm expecting a drop-off from Villa - like they've already done this season after a European night. They were 1-0 down and were second best in the first half against Wolves at Villa Park after playing Young Boys before turning that around 3-1 in the end with some very late goals. And then they were woefully passive in the 0-0 with Manchester United after the Bayern Munich win.
It's Bournemouth or the draw in the double chance market for me here at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
I've been so disappointed with Ipswich, who are going through a bit of identity crisis. They look a team lost in trying to become harder to beat at a higher level, and they have lost much of what made them such an exciting team under Kieran McKenna last season.
They have put in back-to-back woeful performances now at West Ham and vs Everton and confidence looks low.
Meanwhile, Brentford are very good at swatting aside the lower ranked teams at home - you know what you're going to get. From their last 13 home matches against teams that finished that season in the bottom six or were in the bottom six at start of the day this season, they have won 11.
The outright price is a little short at 4/6 with Sky Bet but adding Bryan Mbeumo to score or assist into the mix looks a smart way of boosting the price to Evens. The winger has 10 goal involvements in those 13 matches against the lower-ranked teams, so if Brentford are going to win there's a huge probability that Mbeumo will be the fore.
Is this the moment for Wolves? They are one of four teams still winless in the Premier League, which is a remarkable set of results. This is the 126th top-flight season in English football but it's the first ever to see as many as four teams still without a win after the opening eight games.
Brighton may have recorded impressive victories at Newcastle and against Tottenham but defensively they still look far too easy to create big chances against, shipping 7.2 worth of expected goals in their last three Premier League games. Wolves showed togetherness in defence against Man City last weekend and were looking comfortable up until John Stones headed the visitors in front with the last play of the game. I think this is where their luck changes and the 3/1 draw no bet is worth considering.
I'm all for taking on Manchester City when the time is right but even I'm struggling to see how Southampton and their brittle defence stop them here. You need expert organisation and concentration to keep Pep Guardiola's team out for 90 minutes - something Southampton have shown numerous times already they don't possess.
Betting angles are few and far between as always in a game of this nature but the 16/1 with Sky Bet for Ruben Dias to have a shot on target from outside the box is a little chunky.
An interesting avenue developing since Rodri got injured for Man City is the amount of shots central defenders are registering from open play. With teams defending very deep to try and shut out the space for City through the middle, the tactic has led to Dias having five shots from outside the box this season - with two of them hitting the target.
With both teams 6/4 with Sky Bet for the win and those odds aligning with my numbers, this is a tricky prediction puzzle.
You could play this game 99 times and it wouldn't surprise me if 33 ended in a home win, 33 a draw and 33 in an away win.
Backing Raul Jimenez to score first does look a touch of value, though. The striker has been one of the stories of the season and has recorded a goal involvement in his last seven starts for club and country (six goals and two assists).
The Mexican also has also scored five goals in eight Premier League appearances against Everton, who have also conceded the second most goals from crosses this season - an area where Fulham are particularly strong. The 11/2 first goalscorer price with Sky Bet has potential.
Judged by his performances when fit to start, notably against Man City and Chelsea, Romeo Lavia is going to be a breakout star for Chelsea this season. He is a smooth and silky player with the ball who has an incredible knack of turning into space past a press. His work out of possession is impressive too, winning 15 duels in those starts and registering five tackles.
That tackle count mirrors his numbers from his time at Southampton where he averaged 2.4 tackles per 90 in the 22/23 season. His impact on Chelsea will be big as they climb the table over the next few weeks and his tackle count here against an aggressive Newcastle midfield is worth a look. The 11/10 with Sky Bet for three or more looks good.
Tottenham are terrific but untrustworthy. Even in a spot like this playing away against a winless Crystal Palace whose fans could be about to turn on them, they make no appeal whatsoever to back them at 8/11 with Sky Bet for the away win. We need to get creative to support a Spurs angle and it comes in their ability to win corners.
An aggressive style of overloading the flanks and creating turnovers high up the pitch is leading to huge corner counts being racked up - they have won 76 this season already. Ange Postecoglou's team have won seven or more corners in seven of their eight fixtures this season - the only blot coming away at Manchester United where the game was over as a contest heading into the second half. That makes the Evens on offer with Sky Bet a lovely angle of attack.
West Ham have changed the key components of their defence and changed the manager but their woeful defensive output remains.
In 2024, the Hammers have conceded 2.19 goals per game from a sample size of 27 fixtures. It's the most of any ever-present Premier League team over that period. That's relegation numbers. The defeat at Tottenham means it's now just one clean sheet in their last 26 Premier League fixtures.
The absence of Mohammed Kudus, who is suspended for his rampage last weekend, only helps increase confidence in a pro-United angle here. The away win at 5/4 with Sky Bet is a tempter.
A better play is simply backing Bruno Fernandes to end his 952-minute goal drought in the Premier League. Nobody has had more Premier League shots without scoring than Fernandes (23) as some variance is going against him in front of goal.
The only thing that overcomes bad luck is hard work and Fernandes falls into that line of thinking. He is a trier and I'm expecting him to get back on the goals train soon enough as over the past five seasons he's scored 54 goals at a rate of a goal every 220 minutes. The 5/2 with Sky Bet for him to score anytime will do for me.
What an opportunity this is for Liverpool.
They have timed playing one of their toughest fixtures of the season perfectly with Arsenal missing a host of key players. The William Saliba factor is a big one. Since coming into the team two years ago, the Frenchman has only missed 11 Premier League matches but their goals conceded average goes from 0.8 per 90 with him to 1.6 without him.
But I can't back Liverpool at the prices as Arne Slot has already mentioned on Wednesday they'll do everything they can to "get a result" - he didn't say win the game. That implies he'll be taking a draw as a good result - as would Mikel Arteta considering their selection issues. To go seven points behind Liverpool even at this stage if they got beat would be psychologically damaging.
A draw suits both and it's the biggest price of all three outcomes at 12/5 with Sky Bet. That doesn't make sense, so it looks an interesting betting opportunity.
