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Sunday 21 April 2024 16:41, UK
Jones Knows takes aim at the football feast across the weekend in the Premier League and the FA Cup, sprinkling his betting insight and analysis across the card.
I've always tended to look positively about what Sean Dyche is doing at Everton under huge restraints.
The underlying metrics have been strong despite poor results, Goodison Park is a tough place to play and Dyche himself is a manager with a underrated record at this level.
But I'm losing faith - quickly.
They're in a rut and may not get out of it over the next six games. Just one win in their last 15 Premier League games and scoring just 10 goals in that period is quite frankly pathetic. It's relegation worthy results.
But one thing that has been propping them up all season has been their exemplary defending - it's why I've stuck with them in some tough times. But now, that defence that was once a rock is now a sieve. Holes are appearing.
Their expected goals against metrics in their last seven games has plummeted to 1.90 per 90 - it's fifth worst in the Premier League over that time. And they've not played anyone higher than sixth during that spell.
I've got so much more faith in Nottingham Forest's forward line with Morgan Gibbs-White likely to be head and shoulders the best attacker player on that Goodison Park pitch. They've won four of their last five expected goals battles and have scored in every one of those five matches. I think Forest will score - and that should be enough for them not to lose the game as Everton are incapable of scoring more than once in a Premier League game in their current form.
Take your pick on the pro-Forest angles that are dancing in value. Forest on the double chance at 8/11 with Sky Bet looks very tasty as does the draw no bet option at 6/4. If you fancy the away win at 5/2 then adding Gibbs-White to score or assist to the party at 5/1 looks a shrewd play.
I'm not too worried about a potential hangover from Villa's draining midweek penalty shoot-out win over Lille. The last nine Premier League teams to go to penalties in a European knockout match have remained unbeaten in their next match with seven of them winning. Villa can use that momentum to their advantage and look fair enough to me at 5/6 with Sky Bet for the home win.
The total match offside line is also worth a look with five or more priced up at 6/5 with Sky Bet - that looks a generous line. We know all about Villa's high line that has caught their opponents offside 147 times this season - that's an average of 4.5 per game. But Bournemouth do like to squeeze the game too, especially of late where they've caught the opposition offside 10 times in the last four games. I can see this game hitting that line of five or more - like it did in the reverse fixture.
Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise. What a duo.
The dynamic pair started at Anfield for the first time together since Crystal Palace's 3-2 win over Sheffield United in January and Palace looked a completely different beast, looking so much more confident in possession and creating plenty of fruitful attacking moments.
Since the start of last season, in the 28 Premier League games where Eze and Olise have both started, Palace have a win percentage of 46 per cent and average 1.4 goals per 90 minutes. Contrast that to the 42 games without at least one of them starting those numbers drop dramatically to a win percentage of 14 per cent and 0.9 goals scored per 90 minutes.
With the shrewd addition of the very exciting Adam Wharton, this Palace team - with Eze and Olise fit and firing - look capable of positing some impressive attacking returns under Oliver Glasner in their remaining fixtures and I'll be backing them when the prices are right - which they are here.
West Ham are 14 games without a clean sheet in the Premier League and their overall defensive metrics since the turn of the year are horrendous. They've conceded the third most goals of any team in those 14 games (28) and their expected goals against per 90 figure is 2.14 which is the second worst of any team for that period, behind only Luton.
Palace scoring two or more goals is odds against at 10/11 with Sky Bet, which has to be one of the best prices of the weekend.
Coventry will be hoping to channel the legacy of Keith Houchin and his diving header from the 1987 FA Cup final win over Tottenham. One of my favourite FA Cup final goals that one.
This is a fascinating semi-final as Manchester United could just be there for the taking although giant-killings are rarely seen once we get to this stage.
United's extra quality in the final third is likely to win them this game, not their style of play that continues to baffle. Are they trying to play a low block and also be a pressing team? It's weird.
And they're going to allow Coventry to venture towards their goal at regular intervals. Like many teams against United, it will be the shots and corner count that will take a hammering rather than their goals against column.
The United corners conceded numbers remains out of control, shipping 119 in their last 12 Premier League games - again, the most of any Premier League team in that period. An average of 9.9 per game.
With the Coventry line only set at five or more corners here at 5/6 with Sky Bet, it simply must be attacked. The Sky Blues have won the second most corners in the Sky Bet Championship this season, so their style of play does tend to force them. Going on previous form, even the higher Coventry corners lines 10 or more at 16/1 and 12 or more at 33/1 might be runners at big prices.
Since Rodrigo Muniz came into the Fulham team in January, Fulham have become one of the most dangerous attacking forces in the Premier League. Muniz's eight goals has certainly been the catalyst for their improved numbers but as a team their whole process is functioning beautifully at the moment.
Over the last 12 Premier League games, only Liverpool and Man City are averaging more shots per game (17) and only Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal average more shots from inside the box per game (12.3). In that time they've beaten Bournemouth, Man Utd, Brighton, Tottenham and West Ham - and should have made their dominance pay in the first half against Newcastle - a game they somehow went onto lose. This all equates to impressive form.
So, with Liverpool's midfield looking on the brink of malfunctioning and their strikers misfiring, Fulham look a backable prospect at 6/4 with Sky Bet to avoid defeat and 9/2 outright for victory.
Willian to score at 11/2 jumps out, too.
Surprisingly, he hasn't scored since netting in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg between these two at Anfield but after a spell of injuries, he looked his sparky self in the win at West Ham. He's the likely Fulham penalty taker too which is always a bonus to have on your side when backing anytime goalscorers. The Brazilian can fire in a home win - something which can be backed at 12/1 using the BuildABet with Sky Bet.
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