Analysis

Champions League 2024/25: Why it matters where each team finishes in the league phase table and the knockout round impact

Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Celtic feature in new Champions League format; 36 teams form a single league, with each entrant playing eight different clubs, four at home and four away; the top eight sides will qualify automatically for the last 16

Sam Blitz

Friday 13 December 2024 15:51, UK

We are in the home straight of the Champions League league phase - with the five British teams looking to accomplish different feats in the new format.

The controversial new Swiss-style system has split opinion, with every single team put in a big 36-team league and facing eight different opponents throughout the season.

Liverpool do not seem to mind it after winning each of their opening six league phase games so far without conceding a goal. Eighteen points has all but guaranteed them a top-eight finish, which secures a last-16 spot.

But can Arne Slot now afford to rotate his team? No, not until top spot is secured. That is because there is an incentive to keep winning as every single finishing place matters in this new Champions League format.

Read below to see all the permutations regarding the rest of the new Champions League structure...

Who qualifies out of the league phase?

To achieve automatic qualification into the round of 16 in March, teams must finish in the top eight.

Those in ninth to 24th enter a round of two-legged play-offs in February, with the winners taking the other eight spots in the last 16.

Those who finish ninth to 16th will be seeded for the play-offs, so will have the second leg at home. Those from 17th to 24th will be unseeded, so have the first leg at home.

Teams that finish anywhere from 25th to 36th will be eliminated from this season's competition, with no access to the Europa League.

Ok, but if we're in the top eight, does it matter if I finish first or eighth?

Yes it does. The way the Champions League league phase works is the final league position gives you a specific route - and specific opponents - in the knockout stage draw.

The below graphic shows the tournament tree for the rest of the competition. For the first time ever, the knockout rounds are decided by the league phase - with no separate draws for the last 16, quarter-finals and beyond.

For example, the teams who finish first or second in the league phase will face a team who finishes in 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th.

Compare that to the team who finishes in seventh or eighth, who could play a team who finishes in 23rd or 24th - but also run the risk of facing the team in ninth or tenth spot - which could be a major European outfit.

The advantage for the team finishing first or second is they will guarantee playing a team in the 'middle' of the final Champions League table. Finishing lower down runs the risk of playing a better side.

Is it really an advantage to finish top?

Not necessarily. Particularly this season.

The early struggles of teams such as Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain mean a top European side could end up in the "middle" of the Champions League table - thereby coming up against one of the best performing sides.

Currently, Liverpool are top of the league phase table - but the teams who began this gameweek in 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th are Benfica, Monaco, Sporting CP and Feyenoord - with PSG, Real Madrid and Man City below those teams in the table.

So if top teams continue to not do as well as expected in the league phase, it could create some blockbuster last-16 ties, thereby taking away the advantage of finishing in the highest possible spots.

Is there a difference between finishing ninth and 24th?

Again, yes. A big one. And it's all to do with the play-offs.

The new Champions League format means the team that finishes ninth faces the team in 24th in the play-off round. Tenth plays 23rd, 11th plays 22nd and so on.

So if you just miss out on a top-eight finish, the blow is softened by playing the worst-performing sides that qualified from the league phase. So the higher you finish, the 'easier' game you get.

But again, if teams such as Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain struggle in the league phase, you could have top sides meeting each other in the play-off rounds.

How many points do you need to guarantee a top-eight finish?

The Opta supercomputer believes 16 points would almost certainly be enough to finish in the top eight, which then guarantees you a last-16 spot in March. Liverpool have surpassed that tally having won all of their six games so far, while Aston Villa are just one win away from that checkpoint.

The data also believes 15 points could be enough to sneak into eighth place, with that points tally being enough in 73 per cent of Opta's 50,000 simulations of the league phase.

Meanwhile, 14 points is unlikely to be enough for a top-eight finish. Arsenal are currently on 13 points, so victory over Dinamo Zagreb in their next Champions League game in January should seal them a top-eight finish.

How many points do you need to guarantee a top-24 finish?

To finish in the top 24, which guarantees you a play-off spot at least, Opta believes 10 points will almost certainly guarantee you a place in that round.

Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa have already reached that tally, but City and Celtic still have a bit of work to do.

Celtic are currently on nine points after their goalless draw at Dinamo Zagreb, but City still lie on eight points with two matches to go. They face PSG and Club Brugge in those matches.

Nine points could also be enough to finish 24th, in a boost to City, with that points tally being enough in 69 per cent of the simulations.

But just eight points runs the risk of elimination, with that points tally being sufficient in just 16 per cent of the simulations.

Opta Predictions: Arsenal, Liverpool in top eight

The Opta supercomputer predicts Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa are set to finish in the top eight, with Arne Slot's side staying top, the Gunners in third and Villa in seventh.

On current form, Manchester City and Celtic are set to finish in 22nd and 18th.

The supercomputer also says Paris Saint-Germain are on course to finish 24th - avoiding elimination by the skin of their teeth.

Who are the supercomputer's Champions League favourites?

Liverpool are currently the favourites to win the Champions League, with Slot's side given a 20 per cent chance of winning the trophy in Munich after a stellar start to the season.

Arsenal are third favourites with 13.2 per cent - just ahead of Pep Guardiola's Man City - fourth favourites on 9.3 per cent.

Inter Milan are second favourites on 15.8 per cent - with Atalanta, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen and Sporting Lisbon making up the top ten.

Aston Villa have a 0.6 per cent chance of winning the entire tournament, which is twice as likely as Celtic on 0.3 per cent.

When are the 2024/25 Champions League knockout stages?

Knockout round play-offs: February 11/12 and February 18/19, 2025
Round of 16: March 4/5 and March 11/12, 2025
Quarter-finals: April 8/9 and April 15/16, 2025
Semi-finals: April 29/30 and May 6/7, 2025
Final: May 31, 2025

Where is the Champions League final being held in 2025?

The 2024/25 UEFA Champions League season will take place in Munich at the Allianz Arena on May 31, 2025.