Match highlights of every midweek Premier League game to be shown on the Sky Sports website and app just after full-time
Sunday 23 October 2022 14:52, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows makes the case for Harvey Barnes to score first at 11/1 when Leicester travel to Wolves on Sunday.
The theory that a gambler is perhaps at their most vulnerable after a winner certainly could be aimed at me in midweek.
After a weekend of +9.5 profit, confidence was flowing through my veins attacking the midweek card and the gambling gods sent me a reminder that I'm far from invincible by sending my five points of outlay straight back into the bookmakers' satchels.
Solly March to score at 7/1 against Nottingham Forest was yet again a bet with good value but ended up a loser. He had an effort tipped around the post by Dean Henderson taking his tally to 56 shots in the Premier League since he's last scored. That boy will be the end of me.
No joy with Max Kilman (50/1) scoring against Crystal Palace either, and his failure to have a shot contributed to sending the 6/1 treble of West Ham +2 vs Liverpool (winner) and 23 match shots in Brentford vs Chelsea (there were 22, sigh) down the pan.
Staking 1.5 points on an inconsistent centre-back's shots and goals chances was a really poor decision - lesson learnt.
My main bet of Brentford to avoid defeat (winner) and 27 or more match shots vs Chelsea at 4/1 - that carried two point stakes - was not too far away. How the first half only produced five shots is a bit of a mystery as there were 29 touches in both boxes in what was a full-blooded half of action.
If something is not broke, eh? That's my way of approaching a betting angle if it continues to deliver and the bookmakers do not adjust their pricing. Harvey Barnes did a nice favour on Thursday at 15/2 with Sky Bet, officially being declared as the first goalscorer of the match after the opening goal was an own-goal. That said, Barnes was about to tuck that one home too, so it was a justified winning selection despite the slice of luck.
He remains priced up very healthily at 11/1 to score first and 4/1 anytime despite being Leicester's most attacking weapon along with James Maddison, who returns from suspension here. Barnes is playing as an out and out right-wing forward with not many defensive responsibilities and I would expect his goal return to keep on improving between now and the World Cup break.
With the relentless schedule showing no signs of easing up, I think it's time to invest in backing the under goal-lines involving teams that are expected to rack up the goals. We perhaps got a little insight during midweek into how this period of relentless fixtures is going to hamper teams being at their best with just eight goals scored in seven Premier League fixtures across Tuesday and Wednesday - a staggeringly low average. Liverpool's trip to Forest will be their seventh game in the last 22 days, including intense matches with Arsenal, Rangers and Manchester City while Arsenal's clash with Southampton will be their 15th game of the season already.
It's going to have an effect. I'm backing under 3.5 goals in both encounters.
The treble is completed by a pro-Manchester United angle at Chelsea.
Confidence in that camp looks high, the team is playing with a strong structure and most importantly they are outsiders in the market in this match at 12/5 with Sky Bet - this makes them interesting for me this weekend.
My eyes have also been drawn to Antony's prices regarding his shot chances. He might be a bit of a "one trick Tony" but his ability to cut in on his left added to his desire to shoot makes him a shot backers dream. In his five games in the Premier League his shots on goal tally reads: 3-5-2-4-4. He's likely to come up into battle with Kalidou Koulibaly down the United right and although he's an aggressive defender, he is vulnerable when asked to defend one-on-one with a tricky customer. Antony is going to find space and I'm surprised his shots line is set at two or more with Sky Bet.
The presence of Erling Haaland is frightening the life out of defenders. But bookmakers are running scared too with just 7/4 with Sky Bet on offer for him to open the scoring.
Some have hailed him superhuman. Wrong. He is human and can miss chances just like all other top strikers in football history.
I would love to be a bookmaker in these instances as that 7/4 first goalscorer price is too short, especially against teams that are likely to play a low block in order to frustrate City. If you backed that bet blind with level stakes in the last seven fixtures with the price around the 7/4 mark you would be looking at a loss of -5.25 with only one time Haaland scoring first price returning as a winner. Such is the fear factor around Haaland, he is creating more space for his team-mates to become the first goalscorer in the match rather than himself.
So, we have to try and turn his dominance of the market in our favour and taking the 11/1 with Sky Bet on Phil Foden scoring the opening goal certainly jumps out for this encounter. Foden is fast-becoming part of Pep Guardiola's trusted inner-circle having started every Premier League game this season. That trust stems from his rapid improvement in front of goal. Foden has five goals in his last four Premier League starts and it was his effort at Anfield that was ruled out by VAR.
What makes his price stand out even more in this clash is he has scored five goals in his last four starts vs Brighton as Lewis Dunk and Adam Webster have struggled with Foden's dynamic movement. Ignore Haaland, back Foden.
We have got to have a dream if we are going to make a dream come true.
