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Sunday 9 October 2022 20:20, UK
After finding some big-priced winners last weekend, our tipster Jones Knows is back - and backing Everton to defeat Manchester United on Sunday night
I did have to look twice at the Premier League when spotting Crystal Palace level on points with Wolves just outside the drop zone. Something to worry about? I'd suggest not. Palace's opponents this season have had an average league position of 6.86 - they've had, without question, the hardest start of any team.
It's a shame that recent run of results hasn't affected their price for this one as I'd be interested in playing them here, but their price of 23/20 with Sky Bet is about right. Leeds are an entertaining watch but are a very vulnerable team out of possession and Palace have the individual quality to punish them.
I'd rather take a price on there being some significant needle in the match - as there is most weeks when Leeds play. Patrick Vieira and Jesse Marsch also met nine times in New York derbies when managing New York City and New York Red Bulls and Marsch led his side to a 7-0 MLS win vs Vieira's City which remains Vieira's heaviest defeat as a manager. I'm sure he'll remember that.
Both teams to pick up 20 or more booking points at 10/11 with Sky Bet is bound to give you a good run.
When a counter-attack focused team play a counter-attack focused team, I'm always looking to oppose goals in what could turn out to be a bit of a tactical deadlock. The under 2.5 line here at Evens with Sky Bet certainly stands out, especially with the Hammers being the under-2.5 kings so far this season with seven of their eight Premier League fixtures falling under that line.
West Ham and Fulham sit top of the Premier League 'direct speed' charts which measures how quickly a team progresses the ball up the pitch. Also, between them this season they have only put together 17 situations of where a 10 or more pass sequence either ends in a shot or has at least one touch in the box. Manchester City have had 58. It's counter-attack all the way for both these teams.
In my quest to back under goals, I'm also going to get greedy and throw a West Ham win into the mix as I'm not convinced this Fulham defence is up to Premier League standard despite a bold start to life back at the top table. They have shipped at least two goals in seven of their nine games across all competitions this season, including against Crawley Town in the Carabao Cup. And, their expected goals against data in the Premier League is officially the worst in the league now after last weekend against Newcastle (15.2). Doubts about the fitness of Aleksandar Mitrovic, who has scored 68 goals in his last 76 games for club and country, also make it hard to foresee a positive Fulham result.
Back West Ham to win and under 3.5 goals at 13/8 with Sky Bet.
When playing at home Arsenal have been posting performance metrics that aren't too far away from Manchester City and Liverpool. Since the start of last season, their average of 2.34 expected goals for per game is only bettered by the 'big two'. The problem for them here is that one of those big two arrive on their patch having won on their last three visits against the Gunners without conceding a goal. In fact, Arsenal have failed to score in the last six meetings in all competitions - meaning it's been over 10 hours without a goal vs Liverpool. That will change here.
My main gripe with trusting the long-term data with Liverpool is that their defensive numbers are plummeting, especially away from home. In fixtures at Fulham, Manchester United, Everton and Napoli, Liverpool have posted an average expected goals conceded per game of 2.2. That is over a goal more than last season's Premier League 1.19 per game average.
Arsenal, with such a confident and upbeat crowd behind them, are fancied to get this job done at 8/5 with Sky Bet in a high-scoring game.
After Leandro Trossard's performance and goal output playing directly against Trent Alexander-Arnold last weekend, where we copped a 9/2 anytime scorer winner, it's time to rinse and repeat the theory. Gabriel Martinelli was hailed by Jurgen Klopp as "a talent of the century" and the young Brazilian arrives in confident mood for his date with Alexander-Arnold, nailing down his place as part of Arsenal's dynamic front three. Since May, Martinelli is creating 2.34 chances per-90 minutes for his team-mates and has a healthy assist return of 0.34 (four assists).
Martinelli left Alexander-Arnold seeing stars in the corresponding fixture last season and Arsenal will surely be targeting getting the winger in between the lines down the Liverpool right to cause plenty of carnage. Martinelli is 7/2 with Sky Bet to grab an assist and the 5/4 for him to score or assist also should give you a great run.
Frank Lampard has ticked along very nicely as Everton boss, fighting off relegation and building a team more in keeping with the Everton ethos - what he needs now is a statement victory this season. And this looks the perfect candidate with Manchester United in town. Erik ten Hag is still trying to find the right balance in his midfield and that is a big issue. Some things never change.
Everton arrive six games unbeaten and very much a friend of mine, having landed us some odds-against winners by drawing with Liverpool and beating West Ham and Southampton. Why change a winning habit? Let's back them again as the price looks right in the draw no bet market at 6/4 with Sky Bet, meaning we'll get a full return for a home win and stakes returned for a draw.
The Everton spine remains strong to the extent they now have the best defensive record in the Premier League with just seven goals conceded, albeit that is with a back-drop of an expected goals against record of 12.3, so it is an unstainable run.
I'm quite confident in their ability to shut down United's strengths in transition by defending deep, soaking up pressure and using their quality in midfield with Anthony Gordon to hurt the visitors. A low scoring home win it is.
This game screams low scoring and one that will be settled by fine margins.
Who will get that winning goal then for such two poor attacking outfits then?
Phillipe Coutinho perhaps. He has just one goal involvement in his last 20 Premier League appearances for Aston Villa. It came against Manchester City, too.
Although his legacy at Villa will certainly be bordering on flop territory, he has fired seven shots in his last two games, producing an expected goal figure of 0.67 and did have the ball in the net against Manchester City in the 1-1 draw only for it to be chalked off as the whistle had already been blown. Steven Gerrard's faith in his former team-mate is unwavering. The quality remains and will be unleashed at some point, perhaps at the City Ground against one of the most welcoming teams in terms of affording attacking players space.
James Maddison revelled in it and scored and Coutinho may just follow suit with 15/2 with Sky Bet about him scoring first standing out.
