Premier League betting: Back a competitive Brighton showing at Chelsea

Our tipster Jones Knows is rolling out his classic theory of backing Brighton to be competitive against the top teams and is backing this 4/1 shot.

How did our bet do on Boxing Day?

The speculative 22/1 double on goals, cards and corners in Manchester City vs Leicester and Newcastle and Manchester United fell short. We got a good run for our money in the City game where we only fell one card short of landing that leg as it was a corner, goals and cards fest. St James' Park rocked in an entertaining affair but a low corner count meant my logic was flawed and ultimately wrong.

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I've a much more confident selection to attack on Wednesday night. It's time for double stakes.

P+L = +35

2pts on Brighton to have 10+ shots and with a +2 handicap vs Chelsea (4/1 with Sky Bet)

I am very pro-Brighton in this one. It stems from my theory that Graham Potter's men are suited to playing the top-teams. And they owe me a result from earlier the season when we backed them with a +2 handicap at Liverpool and for them to have 10 or more shots. They drew 2-2. Lovely. And had nine shots. Ouch.

The market is far too skewed towards Chelsea for this one. This should be a very tactical affair with both teams vying to control the game through possession and expert organisation at the back where chances are hard to come by for the opposition. That is seen through both teams' defensive processes over the past 12 months in the Premier League. If you run the numbers since Thomas Tuchel was appointed in January, Chelsea (0.8) and Brighton (1.02) sit second and third respectively in the expected goals against per 90-minute charts with only Manchester City (0.7) faring better.

It's that defensive structure shown from Brighton that is providing the platform for them to consistently trouble the top-ranked teams in the Premier League. The 2-2 draw with Liverpool at Anfield from earlier this season being a perfect example. The big caveat with Brighton is they are a very untrustworthy team in front of goal which does make the outright away win hard to fancy in this one despite 8/1 with Sky Bet being available.

However, in their last 23 games against teams that finished in the top nine of the Premier League last season, Brighton have only lost three games by more than one goal. Included in that run was a 0-0 draw at Stamford Bridge last season where Graham Potter's team had more shots and corners than their top-four chasing hosts. That means I am more than happy to back Brighton with a +2 handicap goal start, meaning we will win if Brighton win, draw or lose by one goal.

Along with taking a positive view on Brighton's chances in the match markets, I also want to invest in the amount of shots they have. Potter's men have little fear when tasked with taking on the big boys. In their last two fixtures with Man City, Potter's side have managed an average of 14.5 shots per 90 minutes. And in five fixtures against Liverpool, Brighton have averaged 11.5 shots per 90 minutes and it's a healthy 12 shots per 90 minutes against Chelsea in four meetings under Potter.

When you add all the evidence up, it makes the 4/1 with Sky Bet on Brighton to have 10+ shots and to carry a +2 handicap look a very appealing price to attack.

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