Our tipster's season profit now stands at +31 to level stakes; play Super 6 to stand a chance of winning £250,000!
Saturday 20 November 2021 16:22, UK
Fancy a punt this weekend? Our tipster Jones Knows has two bets on his radar involving shots and goals at Leicester and a 7/1 weekend treble.
Three points lost but plenty to be positive about.
Southampton scored far too early against Aston Villa, so the 7/1 shot for them to win, to have 15 or more shots and have most corners vs Aston Villa fell short by four shots in a comfortable victory.
Our 7/1 accumulator also fell short by a short-head with Isaac Hayden's equaliser against Brighton meaning the Southampton, Brighton, over 2.5 goals in West Ham vs Liverpool and under 3.5 in the Manchester derby was a loser in agonising fashion.
The frustration of Hayden's goal was soon put into perspective the next day on the family dog walk.
Get ready for this. Our adventure-seeking cocker spaniel, Buddy, managed to sniff out some human, yes, human faeces in a bush and covered himself head-to-toe, loving every second of it. I instantly claimed parenting rights on our one-year-old son while Mrs Jones Knows had to deal with what can only be described as a monstrosity of a clean-up job.
There were tears.
"I feel violated," she said, as she howled from the bathroom. Give me 1,000 bad-beats in the betting world overtaking that task on.
Much like Buddy, I am fully refreshed for the weekend.
The international break is always a good time to take a little time away from the relentless battle with the bookmakers. It's time to get stuck in.
P+L = +31
The time is now to back Chelsea's defence to drop their levels.
Chelsea have the biggest difference between goals conceded (4) and expected goals against (11.79) in the Premier League after the opening eight games - at 7.79. It's a huge overperformance.
I'm expecting an exciting match as Leicester carry a genuine top-six ranked threat in the final third but a defence that is one of the leakiest in the Premier League this season.
Since Brendan Rodgers took charge in 2019, only Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea have scored more goals than Leicester. And their average of 3.11 total goals in their matches over the past two seasons, is the second highest average - behind Manchester United - of any team in the Premier League.
The market is expecting a cagey, tactical affair but with chances of goals at either end, this is a match that could catch fire. That also then opens up the avenue for backing the match total shots market where the line is set at 25 or more shots at Evens. If you take out the possibility of this game catching fire and going shots crazy, the hard averages from both teams' shots data this season make that line appealing anyway. Chelsea's games are averaging just over 24 shots per 90 minutes and Leicester's just over 26. I think the 27 shots line is very fair.
The play therefore is to combine goals and shots in a special offered by Sky Bet involving over 2.5 goals, both teams to score and the match to produce 27 or more shots.
This three are my three strongest fancies of the weekend from my prediction and are worth chucking into a tasty treble.
The case for Leicester vs Chelsea to go shots-mad has already been made above. I'm more than happy to throw West Ham to win away at a regressing Wolves side.
Since beating Watford in September, Wolves have gone flat in forward areas. In their last seven matches, they have posted just 54 shots - that's 16 fewer than any other team. An expected goals figure of 7.4 in that period is fine on first viewing but dig a little deeper and becomes a tad more worrying. All of those seven fixtures have come against teams not in the top-nine of the Premier League table. Crystal Palace were insanely comfortable in their 2-0 victory before the international break with Wolves recording an expected goals figure of just 0.28.
The Hammers have lost just one of their last 17 games away from home against teams that finished ninth or lower according to last season's table, winning 12 of those 17, including beating Wolves 3-2 last season. That's a 71 per cent win-rate and we're getting odds-against here. They are the best bet of the weekend.
Hopefully, the treble will roll onto Super Sunday. The player shots market has drawn me in - as it normally does for an opponent playing Leeds. It's Tottenham this weekend. Marcelo Bielsa's style of man-to-man football always yields space for central players to have strikes on goal as beating their marker usually opens up a pathway to goal.
Bruno Fernandes (four shots - three on target), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (four shots, four on target), Sadio Mane (10 shots, two on target), Michail Antonio (seven shots, three on target) and Armando Broja (five shots, three on target) have racked up multiple shots from a central area against Leeds this season.
The prices on Lucas Moura are appealing considering he is playing much more centrally under Conte and looks a player that could thrive under the watch of the Italian.
All of his lines are worth a look but the pick for the treble is him to have one or more shots on target.
