Analysis

Bundesliga results suggest Premier League home advantage will be wiped out

Home teams have won only 19 per cent of games played behind closed doors in Germany

Saturday 30 May 2020 07:42, UK

The Premier League is poised to return on June 17 but could there be warning signs over home games from the Bundesliga?

There have been only five home wins in 27 Bundesliga games played behind closed doors, which suggests home advantage is wiped out without fans.

That ratio represents a 25 per cent slump for success on home soil since the league restarted and underlines how fans in the stands are the key component to home advantage.

According to a study published by The Conversation, home teams win 46 per cent of games on average - but that figure is slashed to just 36 per cent for the 191 games played behind closed doors in Europe's top leagues and competitions since WWII.

In England, the hosts have won 45 per cent of games in the Premier League this season, 43 per cent in the Championship, 46 per cent in League One and 42 per cent in League Two - with the top tiers expected to restart without fans in attendance next month.

How will this affect Premier League clubs?

Home form

Rock-bottom Norwich have collected nearly three quarters of their points at home - averaging more than one point per game at Carrow Road, but only 0.4 on the road.

Aston Villa still have a realistic chance of avoiding the drop but rely heavily on home form, along with fellow relegation battlers Bournemouth, Watford and Brighton - as have Spurs in their hunt for European qualification.

Conversely, Southampton, Chelsea and Wolves are the only clubs to perform better away from home, while Sheffield United have received only a marginal boost at Bramall Lane during their sensational campaign.

COVID-19 impact on football

March 5 - Pre-match handshakes banned in the Premier League.
March 11 - Man City v Arsenal is first Premier League game suspended; Liverpool v Atletico Madrid the last top level game played in England.
March 12 - Man Utd, Wolves play away Europa League ties behind closed doors, Rangers host Bayer Leverkusen in front of fans.
March 13 - Football suspended following an emergency meeting between PL, FA, EFL and WSL
April 15 - SPFL clubs approve plan to end the Scottish Championship, League One and league Two seasons.
May 15 - League Two clubs vote to end the season with immediate effect.
May 17 - Premier League players and staff tested for COVID-19.
May 18 - Scottish Premiership curtailed, with points per game determining league positions and Celtic named champions.
May 19 - Premier League clubs return to socially distanced group training.
May 25 - Women's Super League cancelled, with title and relegation to be determined.

Home games remaining

Teams with more home fixtures remaining would lose a boost from their 'twelfth man', and teams with more away games to play would gain.

Aston Villa and Manchester City each have a league-topping six home games left to play. The data above suggests home form has a marginal effect on City - but it could still dent their slender four-point lead over Leicester.

However, it could be a decisive factor for Villa, for whom the margins are even slimmer in the battle for top-flight survival - losing home support against Sheffield United, Chelsea, Wolves, Manchester United, Crystal Palace and Arsenal.

A big part of Villa's success on home soil could be their considerable support from the stands, with an average attendance of 41,661, which ranks eighth highest in the league - above Chelsea and Everton.

So Bundesliga results and studies suggest Premier League teams fighting relegation stand to lose most if games are played behind closed doors, while Brighton must host both Manchester clubs, Liverpool, Arsenal and Newcastle in front of empty stands.