Will Manchester City striker Erling Haaland smash the all-time Premier League Golden Boot goal record of 32 goals in a 38-game season set by Mohamed Salah in 2018? How does the Norwegian score his goals?
Wednesday 12 April 2023 14:27, UK
The mind-boggling projections speak volumes: Erling Haaland would finish the Premier League season on 39 goals if he maintains his current strike-rate and game time - and would extend that to 41 if he played every minute.
The Norwegian is on course to smash the Premier League all-time Golden Boot record of 34 set by Andy Cole (1993/94) and Alan Shearer (1994/95), both achieved in 42-game seasons.
In all competitions, Haaland would register 60 goals this term if he sustains his ratios and reaches finals in all remaining club competitions - or 66, if he was never substituted.
The 22-year-old had scored only twice in eight games leading up to late January but restored his breath-taking ratios with a penalty at Crystal Palace a month ago, a five-goal haul in the 7-0 win over RB Leipzig and a hat-trick against Burnley in the FA Cup.
Since the international break, he has scored a double in the 4-1 win at Southampton - including an acrobatic scissor strike - before assisting and scoring in a dominant 3-0 win over Bayern Munich.
That goal extended his season tally to 45 in all competitions, which is the most ever by a Premier League player in a single campaign - but he looks set to steamroll through countless more records.
So, how does Haaland score his goals and how, can, opponents stop him?
The towering frontman has netted 30 goals from just 27 Premier League games, and has also been hooked off in 10 of those outings - hitting four hat-tricks during wins against Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Manchester United and Wolves.
Those numbers produce a staggering league ratio of 1.23 goals per 90 minutes - more potent than any other player in Europe's top five leagues this season to have played in excess of 540 minutes.
The chart below plots goals and expected-goal (xG) returns for all Premier League players this season and presents the scale of the striker's achievements - soaring clear in both categories.
Several forwards from opposition teams are in consistent form, most notably Alexander Isak, Harry Kane and Ivan Toney - but Haaland is humbling his rival's figures.
Some critics might claim any established forward would convert bags of goals in Pep Guardiola's side, based on the sheer quantity of clear-cut chances they create.
However, the Norwegian has also outgunned his xG returns by nearly 50 per cent, netting nine goals more than the 21 expected from chances presented to him - another league-topping ratio.
Additionally, Haaland has scored his 30 league goals from only 46 shots on target, which means his current goal haul equates to one goal from every 1.5 shots on target - underlining the clinical finishing to date.
The shot map below highlights City's No 9 has converted the lion's share of his haul from poaching opportunities inside the six-yard box, with almost all goals fired from the central third of the opposition box.
In terms of shot placement, Haaland has an almost perfect conversion rate when firing to the left side of the goal - netting 17 from 21 shots on target - and scores with around half of his attempts in the centre of the goal and to the right.
Haaland appears to be genuinely unstoppable when in full flow. His acrobatic and aerial ability, coupled with physical height, power and speed, is defying all attempts to nullify his powers - despite opponents being aware of his primary threat down the left-of-centre channel.
The Norway international has also created five goals for team-mates but his disparity between goals and assists underlines how he typically fires on sight.
However, he averages far fewer touches, dribbles and final-third passes than other forwards - a deficiency City and most clubs would gladly trade for his prolific strike-rate.
Haaland clocked merely six touches in 45 minutes against Aston Villa in February and just eight touches in 74 minutes against Bournemouth in August. Indeed, he currently averages at 21 touches per goal.
In terms of passing, Haaland tends to drift and combine with team-mates across the width of the penalty box, with a slightly higher concentration of exchanges down left-of-centre areas - while creating his most potent chances from central areas just outside the box.
The striker's current goal rate sets him on course to finish the season on 66 goals in all competitions - if he were to reach every final and play every minute of normal time. The Norwegian is clearly set to break more records - and there is a growing sense he will rewrite the record scales entirely.
