Lewis Jones explains why Brighton should be taken seriously in their FA Cup semi-final at Wembley vs Manchester United on Sunday; Brighton's aggressive style of play, performance data and betting market confidence will see them go off favourites to beat their illustrious opponents
Sunday 23 April 2023 19:06, UK
Would Brighton beating Man Utd be an FA Cup shock? No, they are favourites. Lewis Jones takes a look at their remarkable rise and why this just might be the start.
Brighton are no longer the team that just tickle the elite. Tottenham know. Chelsea know. And Manchester United are about to find that out on Sunday at Wembley.
They have put down the feather dusters used under Graham Potter and replaced them with battering rams under Roberto De Zerbi.
There is a ruthlessness and drive about what Brighton are doing.
It is exciting. It is courageous.
Teams do not know how to stop them. Declan Rice said chasing Brighton's midfield when 4-0 down earlier this season was "demoralising" and "embarrassing". That domination is usually something we associate with Manchester City.
It might sound fanciful, but Brighton are not far away from that type of level.
Like Newcastle, Brighton's place among the elite is one to take very seriously.
A simple look at the betting odds for Sunday's clash at Wembley shows that. At a neutral venue, Brighton are favourites to reach the final with Sky Bet offering 4/5 whilst Manchester United are 10/11. When converting that into percentage chance for probability purposes, the numbers suggest Brighton stand a three per cent better chance than United of winning the tie.
When looking at the history, global reach and budget available to both clubs, that is simply remarkable.
Brighton have made just one cup final before. Manchester United have won 18 domestic cup trophies.
Brighton have 850,000 followers on Twitter. Manchester United have 35 million.
Brighton's likely starting forward line of Karou Mitoma, Evan Ferguson and Solly March cost the club £3m. United's trio of Bruno Fernandes, Antony and Jadon Sancho cost almost £250m.
You get my point.
Having watched his team many times this season and attended his press conferences, De Zerbi has an aura - one you associate with the top managers. He plays off emotions on the touchline. And he treats his players like family. He is not afraid to talk of targets, openly admitting he has challenged his team to finish in the European spots. Many managers would play down their hopes - I'm looking at you, Graham Potter - but De Zerbi is more than happy to ramp up the expectation. When he talks you can see that determination. He makes you want to follow.
This belief, hunger and aggressive style of football in the backdrop of a no-pressure environment to achieve, actually makes their challenging run-in something to look at in a positive view.
And Brighton will win matches on their recent record against Arsenal, Man City, Spurs, Man Utd, Newcastle, Chelsea and Liverpool.
In their last 16 matches across all competitions against the aforementioned opponents, Brighton have won nine of those fixtures, winning the aggregate score 30-22 while also winning expected goals battle 21.24-19.94. That is a phenomenal set of results for a team outside the so-called elite.
"De Zerbi is doing such a good job, there will be clubs all across Europe looking at him," said Jamie Carragher on a recent Monday Night Football after analysing Brighton's win over West Ham in March.
De Zerbi has got Brighton playing like a Champions League team - and is doing it in arguably the highest-quality league in the world with the club having allowed three key players in Marc Cucurella, Yves Bissouma and Leandro Trossard to be sold for a net transfer spend of +£90m. It is a remarkable success story and showcases just how efficient and revolutionary Brighton are with their recruitment strategies.
They are playing like a top team - and we are talking about Arsenal and Manchester City levels here from what we have seen in 2023. Usually a team that posts excellent results over a short period struggles to mirror that excellence with the underlying numbers. Not Brighton.
De Zerbi's team strangle the opposition with possession. It starts from the goalkeeper and two centre-backs, who are encouraged to take the ball and draw the opposition on. The manager is challenging his players to play football like the best teams on the planet do, showing bravery, skill and playing with a purpose. His players are taking on that information, too, as shown by Brighton averaging 62.5 per cent of possession since De Zerbi has taken charge. It is more than Arsenal, and just 0.26 less than Pep Guardiola's possession machine at Manchester City.
The stats also show they are sustaining attacks - as seen by their 10+ pass sequence data, which is a measurement of a period of play that contains 10 or more passes. Again, only Man City are above them in that metric.
Brighton are creating bigger and better chances than when Potter was at the helm. There is now edge to their attacks as they look to create one-on-ones for their dangerous attacking players like March and Mitoma, who are so adept at providing penetration from wide areas.
A delve into their expected goals data in 2023 paints an incredible picture.
It showcases an underlying process that is the best in the Premier League over a healthy 13-game sample size. Brighton are working at an expected goals per-90 figure of 2.33 - a return that is 0.24 higher than Manchester City's. And, their expected goals difference of 1.19 (expected goals for minus expected goals against) is only bettered by Pep Guardiola's side who have won their last six Premier League matches.
A really interesting backdrop to the development of this Brighton side under De Zerbi is just how strongly the betting markets rate them. Over the past 10 years, the way teams are priced up by the markets has seen a shift towards a more data-led model which pays particular attention to the performance metrics put up by teams - rather than just simply results led. Ironically, that type of modelling was used by Brighton owner Tony Bloom to help him beat the bookmakers before it was openly available and help him accumulate his fortune.
The strength of a team's odds in the match results market provides a reliable guide to what kind of levels a team are operating it.
"Brighton are making all the right noises in the reflected match prices right now," said Rob Carr of Sky Bet's pre-match football trading team.
"The full-time result 'starting price' at kick-off of fixtures is a great guide to demonstrate the team's percentage chance of winning and can be used as a tool to compare against other top-four hopefuls to see how the Seagulls are rated.
"For some historical examples, Brighton's starting price at home to Fulham on February 18 (1/2 with Sky Bet) is actually shorter than the 4/7 that Graham Potter's Chelsea kicked off at against the same side only two weeks before. This shows us that De Zerbi has his side rated better than the team Potter left for - and has now been sacked from.
"The final tell is how their full-time result price is shortening from release, until kick-off. Two weeks before the game you could've backed Brighton at 3/4 with Sky Bet away to Bournemouth, but on kick-off you're only getting 1/2 - around a nine per cent shift, which is huge for a pre-match price.
"The same a month ago at Elland Road, where in two weeks Brighton's price shortened from 23/20 into solid odds on at 4/5 - almost a 10 per cent shift. This shows us that there is consistent strong backing for De Zerbi's side as the market forms from creation to kick-off."
It is time to take Brighton seriously - like the markets do. Manchester United beware.
