Analysis

Man Utd manager Erik ten Hag is among Premier League elite for super subs

Man Utd manager Erik ten Hag ranks third among Premier League managers for goal threat from the bench and winning points after making changes; nearly 20 per cent of Man Utd's goals have come from substitutes under the Dutchman; Mohamed Salah and Jhon Duran are top super subs

Conor ONeill

Data and Analysis @conor_oneillSSN

Saturday 19 October 2024 07:31, UK

Which managers make the best and worst substitutions and which players make the biggest impact?

When Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag introduced defensive duo Jonny Evans and Harry Maguire while trailing in a Europa League match against Porto, many criticised it as another example of his poor in-game management skills.

Yet, it was Maguire's late header that secured the equaliser and potentially saved Ten Hag's job.

Substitutions have been one of the many criticisms levelled at Ten Hag during his tenure, but is this warranted?

We examined every substitution involving current Premier League players and managers to uncover which managers use their bench most effectively and which players make the greatest impact.

Ten Hag among elite

Unsurprisingly, Manchester City's stacked, star-studded squad provides the most attacking threat off the bench, scoring 58 goals since Pep Guardiola took charge.

Yet, on a per-90 basis, Ten Hag stacks up well against his fellow managers. His substitutes score 0.24 goals on average each game, placing him third on the list for current Premier League managers.

The impact of these substitutes has been substantial, rescuing 35 points from losing or drawing positions, which amounts to 0.42 points per game - only Ange Postecoglou and Unai Emery boast a higher figure.

In fact, only Julen Lopetegui depends more on his substitutes for goals than Ten Hag. Nearly 20 per cent of Manchester United's Premier League goals under the Dutchman have been scored by players coming off the bench.

Ten Hag turns to his bench around four times per game, which aligns closely with the Premier League average. Despite the effectiveness of his substitutes, Guardiola is more conservative with his changes, averaging just 3.18 substitutions per game.

Only Sean Dyche is more frugal with his substitutions, a trait he may need to reconsider as he tries to reverse Everton's early-season struggles.

Dyche and Guardiola are also slow to make their substitutions, typically introducing the first player after the hour mark.

Who are the Premier League's best subs?

Without the crucial contributions of his substitutes, Ten Hag would likely have faced the sack already - but which players have made the biggest impact when coming off the bench?

Among current Premier League players, Mohamed Salah is one of the quickest to make an impact when coming on as a substitute. On the rare occasions he's benched, he has scored seven goals at an impressive rate of one goal every 96 minutes.

Following him is Aston Villa's super-sub Jhon Duran, with eight of his nine Premier League goals coming from the bench, averaging one goal every 108 minutes.

In general, substitutes tend to score more frequently than starters. Since the 2016/17 season, they have averaged 0.18 goals per 90 minutes, compared to 0.13 for starting players.

However, this doesn't mean substitutes are inherently better. A key reason for their higher scoring rate is that managers prefer to bring on forwards over defenders. For instance, 58 per cent of Enzo Maresca's substitutions have involved attacking players.

Yet, a substitute's impact extends far beyond the goals they score. The fresh legs and energy they bring can wreak havoc and shift the momentum of a game, often turning the tide in their team's favour.

This is highlighted by the players who have come on while their team was losing or drawing and helped to turn the result around.

Though not the most prolific winger, Adama Traore's blistering pace and dribbling ability have consistently posed problems for tired defenders. His introduction during games has won 37 points off the bench - more than any other current player in the Premier League.

The increasing impact of subs

Former England rugby union head coach Eddie Jones coined the term 'finishers' to describe replacements from the bench to impact games. Arsenal manager MIkel Arteta has since rebranded the phrase as 'impacters'.

Indeed, substitutes have grown in importance over the years, contributing to an increasing share of goals.

This trend has become particularly noticeable since the Premier League made the five-substitution rule permanent in the 2022/23 season.

In the league's inaugural season, around five per cent of goals came from the bench, while last season set a record with 14 per cent.

All-time super-subs

What about all-time super subs? Well, journeyman Jermain Defoe leads the way with 24 goals from the bench, ahead of former Arsenal and Chelsea striker Olivier Giroud (21).

Former Manchester United manager forward, and manager, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was renowned for his scoring exploits as a substitute under Sir Alex Ferguson - ranking joint-fourth on the all-time list alongside Nwankwo Kanu with 17 goals, behind Javier 'Chicharito' Hernández (19).

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