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Sunday 12 November 2023 15:05, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows takes aim at the Premier League action, sprinkling his betting analysis and predictions over an exciting weekend.
It's going to take a special team, capable of negotiating their way through Aston Villa's insane offside trap, to be able to break this sensational home run Unai Emery's team are on. Fulham haven't shown any evidence of late to suggest they are up for the job of ending Villa's 12-game winning streak.
Marco Silva's side have scored just nine goals in their last 11 Premier League games while Villa have scored 20 goals across their last four home matches. Such is their pace and power in attack added to their defensive unity, Villa will be popular in the market even at odds of 1/2 with Sky Bet. That rates their chance of victory at 66 per cent which looks a tad generous to my calculations. A way of bumping up the price to a more backable level is to take Villa on the -1 handicap at 13/8 with Sky Bet, meaning we need them to win by more than one goal to cop a full return - a line they have covered in nine of their last 11 victories in all competitions.
My Lewis Dunk free-kick adventure almost led me to treasure last weekend at 66/1 when his effort from outside the area was tipped over the crossbar by Jordan Pickford. That's now four shots from outside the area in his last five fixtures as the markets continue to underrate his chances of scoring from range. It remains an edge that needs backing. With him very much on free-kick duties and showing surprising ability from them, there's 12/1 with Sky Bet available on him hitting the target from outside the area and 22/1 about his chances of scoring from outside the box.
It's about time Trent Alexander-Arnold upped his strike-rate in front of goal. Since undergoing the tactical tweak to play him more centrally, the England man has only scored once in 20 appearances - a disappointing return of a player with his undoubted quality playing in such an attack-minded side.
That could be about to change though looking at his shot numbers since returning from injury. He's had nine in his last three games - all coming from outside the box.
And now Brentford are in town, who notoriously defend deep and allow opposition teams plenty of space outside their box. Alexander-Arnold has had 10 shots from outside the box against the Bees in the four Premier League meetings between the teams.
The 15/8 with Sky Bet for him to have a shot on target from outside the box looks to have potential - as does the 9/1 for him to score from outside the box. Remember, he is also on free-kicks which adds an extra avenue of attack for both bets.
I'm keen to take on West Ham at short prices where possible after playing in Europe on the Thursday. David Moyes seems a bit conflicted in his approach of late as he tries to find the balance of accommodating the raw talent of Mohammed Kudus into his side. His side are on a four-game winless run at present.
The raising of expectation levels both internally and externally at a football club rarely ends well for the man in the charge, especially one who has proven to have limitations working consistently to a high level. The Hammers are now getting to a stage where a more forward-thinking, attack-minded manager is probably best suited to taking the club to the next level. And, Steve Cooper should be top of their list - but that argument is for another day.
With Forest fancied to put on a good show for the win at their 3/1 quotes with Sky Bet, delving into the player prop markets is advised. My eyes are drawn to roaming left-back Harry Toffolo, fresh from two assists against Aston Villa, to register another at 6/1.
Chelsea going off bigger than 4/1 with Sky Bet for a Premier League home match can't have happened for at least 20 years. But that's where the club are at. A million miles away from Manchester City, who should be able to deliver for punters that are willing to get involved at 8/11.
My betting instincts are drawn to prop markets involving former City youngster Cole Palmer. He's made a bright and confident start to life as a Chelsea player and will be looking to prove a point to his former employers. In just seven starts for his new club he's sprung to the fore, playing with an impressive responsibility. He's had 21 shots in that period and been carded twice in some all-action performances.
Using the Bet Builder function with Sky Bet, I'm happy to combine his yellow card price of 3/1 with him to have at least two shots on goal. It results in a tasty looking 9/2 shot to cheer on.
