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Saturday 23 September 2023 21:49, UK
Jones Knows is attacking a James Maddison shots angle at 100/30 in what should be a belting derby between Arsenal and Tottenham, live on Sky Sports.
I'm doing an expert job of tipping some cracking angles and winners across the Premier League card in my prediction column but somehow coming out with a loss on the bets put forward in this 'best bets' piece - which is my bread and butter. It's a skill in itself to narrow down which bets to select for an official play - one which I'm floundering at this season so far.
Gustavo Hamer for Sheffield United was a player on my radar for last weekend - his shot on target price and goalscorer price stood out in their fixture at Spurs. Yet, I left him off the best bets list. He scored first at 22/1 of course.
But the real smack in the face was produced by Crystal Palace, whose late collapse at Villa Park meant the 9/2 treble went down in bad beat territory. Lewis Dunk made his foul against Manchester United at Evens - what a price - while the under 3.5 goals line in Bournemouth vs Chelsea cruised home. Didn't fancy tipping the 0-0 here, at 14/1, then? Silly sausage.
All we needed was Palace to avoid defeat and with 88 minutes on the clock that looked a certainty with them 1-0 up. Villa would have been 100/1 territory for the three points so their turnaround, helped by a controversial refereeing call to boot, hurt like a kick in the special place.
Bryan Mbeumo's failure to trouble the scorers, too, meant it was another -3 for the weekend, leaving us -8 for the season. Work to do. Make better decisions, Lewis.
I want to be with the Spurs attack across the prop markets. My eyes have been drawn to James Maddison and his price surrounding his shots on target. He is absolutely revelling in being the centre of attention for Ange Postecoglou to the extent he's had more shots on target and created more chances per 90 this season than Harry Kane did last season, albeit we're dealing with a small sample size.
That said, his tally of 11 shots on target is only bettered by Erling Haaland (16) and the playmaker has had at least one shot on target in every Premier League match in a Spurs shirt. That makes the 4/6 with Sky Bet on him having at least another very appealing and I wouldn't put people off having a nibble at the 100/30 for him to register two or more shots on target too.
It's hard to argue against their win possibilities here at 8/11 with Sky Bet when you consider their near-perfect record away from home against the bottom half. Last season they took 25 points from 30 available and conceded just five goals in those 10 matches - and that sole defeat came at West Ham, a team that went on to win a European trophy so their ranking as a bottom-half side is probably a little misleading. Erik ten Hag is a manager that can win ugly - and his team will be in that mode for this one.
Nine of those 10 matches on the road against the bottom 10 last season also fell under the 2.5 goal line. In fact, the total goal output in those matchers was just 1.6 per 90. That makes the price for under 2.5 goals here at 5/4 with Sky Bet look incredibly appealing. If you add a United win into that equation, the price on offer is 4/1. It's a bet that would have landed in 50 per cent of United's games against the bottom 10 last season. That 4/1, basically requiring United to win either 1-0 or 2-0, is a huge value play.
This treble has been hitting the crossbar in recent weeks, going two from three in the last two columns. Best time it landed then as I combine three of my strongest fancies from the prediction column.
