Chelsea and Kai Havertz; Everton and Dominic Calvert-Lewin; Leeds and Patrick Bamford - there are plenty of Premier League sides who find their attacks sputtering with their No 9s out of form. But which club - and which striker - is underperforming the most?
Wednesday 22 February 2023 11:57, UK
The January transfer window has been and gone, meaning clubs must make do with what they have until the summer, but it is clear a number of them are still being hampered by suboptimal play in the final third.
The lack of a reliable goalscorer is often cited as a reason for a club struggling to stay afloat in the Premier League, and it's true that a number of the sides finding themselves at the wrong end of the table are being held back in this department.
But attacking problems are also afflicting teams higher up the table, including a side that broke records with their spending last month and a club that can call on one of the most in-form forwards in Europe.
But which are the teams most in need of a new approach up front, either through some tactical tweaks or some savvy recruitment once clubs can spend again at the end of the season?
West Ham are the Premier League's biggest underperformers in front of goal - and it's not even close. The Hammers have recorded an expected goals (xG) total of 29.59 across their 23 league matches this season, yet have found the net only 19 times - an underperformance of more than 10 goals.
With that in mind, it's no surprise to see David Moyes' side 18th in the table, despite the fact they have spent over £50m on new strikers this season.
However, those new recruits - Gianluca Scamacca and Danny Ings - aren't the main culprits for West Ham's profligacy, with the former outperforming his xG by 0.53 and the latter yet to start for his new club.
Instead, it's Jarrod Bowen - West Ham's top league scorer - who has been the main offender, scoring just four times from an xG of 6.92, while Michail Antonio has just two goals compared to an xG of 3.17.
Antonio has started the Hammers' last seven games in all competitions, with Scamacca and Ings both working their way back from knee injuries.
But with Scamacca and Ings fit enough to make the bench for Sunday's 2-0 defeat at Tottenham - when Antonio led the line without success - West Ham fans will be hoping the duo can soon step up to the starting XI and provide the goals their side has been sorely lacking.
Nottingham Forest have put their dismal start to the season behind them, with just four defeats in their last 15 Premier League games, but remain one of the top flight's most disappointing sides in the opponent's area.
Steve Cooper has spent a lot of the season playing without an out-and-out No 9 - although Chris Wood's recent arrival has altered that approach - and Brennan Johnson is Forest's top league scorer with just five goals.
But the Wales international is still underperforming compared to his xG of six, while Morgan Gibbs-White and Jesse Lingard have a combined total of just two goals from an xG of 4.35.
Wood appears to be the No 9 that Cooper is going to favour until the end of the season, with Taiwo Awoniyi, Sam Surridge and Emmanuel Dennis in reserve, and the on-loan Newcastle striker scored his first Forest goal in the 1-1 draw with Manchester City on Saturday.
Whether Wood continues to find the net until the end of the season will go a long way to determining both his and his new club's Premier League future.
No one needs to tell Frank Lampard about Everton's problems in front of goal, with the club's failure to address the issue seen as a key factor in the manager losing his job last month.
Sean Dyche took up the reins before the closure of the January window but he also oversaw no signings, meaning he must find a way to keep the Toffees in the Premier League with just Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Neal Maupay and the unproven Ellis Simms as his strikers.
Calvert-Lewin has struggled with injuries for the past two seasons while Maupay has failed to impress since arriving from Brighton in the summer, and the duo have combined for a total of just two league goals from an xG total of 5.41 this season.
The fact that Anthony Gordon - who joined Newcastle in January - and Demarai Gray - who has been left out since Dyche's arrival - are Everton's joint top scorers with three league goals sums up their plight.
The Toffees look destined to continue scrapping for their Premier League place over the next few months - and they are likely to be scrapping for a new No 9 in the summer in a bid to provide Dyche with the goalscorer Lampard never had.
Wolves are just one place above Everton, but unlike their fellow relegation-threatened side, the Midlanders looked to address their goalscoring woes in the transfer market.
Diego Costa joined in September and Matheus Cunha followed last month, but after a combined total of 17 appearances and 3.21 xG, the pair have scored zero league goals between them.
Raul Jimenez has also failed to find the net, despite have an xG of 1.58, meaning Wolves have had to rely on Ruben Neves and Daniel Podence to score nearly 60 per cent of their league goals.
Julen Lopetegui has improved Wolves' fortunes since taking charge in November, taking 13 points from his eight Premier League games, but Saturday's 1-0 home defeat to Bournemouth - when they had three times as many shots as their struggling opponents - was another example of his side being held back by their limp attack.
Chelsea's misfiring forwards have played a key role in the woeful form that is already leading to questions over the future of Graham Potter as the Blues' manager, so it's no surprise to see them on this list.
Since the former Brighton boss replaced Thomas Tuchel in September, Chelsea have scored just 15 goals in 17 Premier League games, with Kai Havertz and Mason Mount the only players to score more than once in that time.
Chelsea's xG total in the league since Potter arrived is 20.43, resulting in an underperformance of 5.43.
Havertz - a versatile forward who has been deployed as the regular No 9 under Potter - has scored four from an xG total of 5.19, while Raheem Sterling has also struggled under the manager, scoring only once compared to 2.19 xG.
But despite his side's final-third problems, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been left out of Chelsea's Champions League squad and can't make the cut in the Premier League.
Given their record-breaking spending this season, Chelsea look primed to once again use the transfer market to address their lack of a No 9 in the summer.
Brighton's ability to play slick, attractive football, combined with a perceived inability to finish the abundance of chances they create, has been a narrative circling the Amex ever since Potter took charge in 2019.
While the manager is again overseeing a side that lacks a cutting edge in the final third at Chelsea, Roberto De Zerbi, his successor at Brighton, actually has his side punching above their weight in front of goal.
The Seagulls have 39 goals from their 22 Premier League games - the fifth-best record in the division - while their xG is 37.03, meaning they are performing slightly better than expected.
However, a closer look at the numbers reveals Brighton are indeed another side that could be searching for a new No 9 in the summer, given the underperformance of Danny Welbeck and Denis Undav.
The goal-shy duo have combined for an xG total of 5.96 in the Premier League this season, yet have just a solitary strike between them.
Instead, Brighton have been relying on Kaoru Mitoma, Pascal Gross and Nathan Ferguson - possibly their future at No 9 - for goals.
The trio are outperforming their xG total by a whopping 6.84, which helps to explain De Zerbi's team's impressive output in front of goal.
In short... yes. Manchester United have scored 41 goals in 24 Premier League games this season - 1.11 more than their xG would predict.
That overperformance can largely be put down to Marcus Rashford's remarkable form, with the forward scoring 14 times from an xG figure of only 9.89, which shows perfectly just how deadly he is right now.
Aside from Rashford, Bruno Fernandes is the only Man Utd player to score five league goals this season, while Wout Weghorst - the striker brought in on loan in January - has failed to register a top-flight goal.
When you add in the fact that Anthony Martial struggles to stay fit for a prolonged period of time, it's not hard to see why Erik ten Hag wants a new No 9 in the summer in a bid to lighten the load on Rashford's shoulders.
In what will come as a shock to absolutely nobody, Erling Haaland claims the crown for the player to be overperforming the most in front of goal, with the Manchester City striker scoring 26 times from an xG total of just 18.06.
His overperformance of 7.94 goals accounts almost entirely for Man City's total of 8.98 goals scored over their xG, which helps to make them the division's most prolific side.
James Maddison is second to Haaland, with the Leicester midfielder recording a 5.09 xG differential, followed by Rashford, Newcastle's Miguel Almiron and Tottenham's Harry Kane.
At the other end of the scale is Patrick Bamford, who has the worst xG differential having scored just once from an xG total of 5.13.
The luckless Leeds striker is followed by Welbeck, Arsenal's Eddie Nketiah, Liverpool's Darwin Nunez and West Ham's Bowen.
