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Saturday 17 September 2022 17:27, UK
There will be wins for Man City, Newcastle and Tottenham on Saturday, predicts tipster Jones Knows, who previews all seven Premier League fixtures across the weekend.
Backing Wolves with a +2 handicap against the big teams is like getting into bed on a cold winter's night. I feel comforted and comfortable. My confidence of it landing at 10/11 with Sky Bet was only heightened watching Manchester City on Wednesday against Borussia Dortmund. As Pep Guardiola said, they lacked intensity and aggression until the last 15 minutes. They can turn the taps on at any point against any team but Wolves are a very difficult team to create big chances against.
Bruno Lage's side have a fine overall record against teams that finished in the top nine last season. If you collate all of those 10 most recent results, Wolves only lost the aggregate score 11-8 and were only beaten by more than one goal in the 3-1 defeat to Liverpool on the final day of the Premier League season.
Wolves with a +2 goal start at 10/11 with Sky Bet (a bet that landed for us in their away defeat at Spurs) meaning the bet lands if Wolves win, draw or lose by one goal, seems a sensible play for those that like a shorter price.
Eddie Howe spent 19 years in total as a player and manager with Bournemouth, leading the club to three promotions as the boss, and this will be the first time he has faced the club as a manager. How that will translate to the outcome or finding a betting angle is a tough thing to navigate but I am pretty sure he will be showing his former employers little mercy.
Newcastle are pretty trustworthy at home when it comes to swatting away lower-ranked teams. Since February, they have delivered the goods at home to Aston Villa, Everton, Brighton, Wolves, Leicester, Arsenal and Nottingham Forest, losing just one of their last 13 Premier League matches at St James's Park and that was to Liverpool. A home win at 4/9 with Sky Bet should be good for those looking to build some short-priced angles this weekend.
Those that like a bigger price should consider Adam Smith picking up his fifth booking of the season already at 5/2 with Sky Bet, especially if Allan Saint-Maximin returns from injury. The flying French winger has been responsible for 32 yellow cards from the opposition since the start of the 19/20 season - ranking him as the eighth biggest card magnet in the Premier League. And 65.6 per cent of those yellows have come when playing at St James's Park.
Smith is just one game away from suspension after picking up four bookings in his first six games and it might be worth him getting that fifth one in sooner or later so he can play without the shackles of being one card away from a ban.
This a game bursting with betting opportunities as a free-flowing, open encounter that should play out with most of the action coming towards Danny Ward's goal.
For a manager whose team had just lost 5-2, Brendan Rodgers was surprisingly mellow when I attended his post-match press conference after the Brighton defeat.
He has a contract with Leicester until June 2025 and is due a reported mammoth pay-off if sacked. So, Leicester have a manager they cannot really afford to sack and a manager that is not going to walk away. It's a pickle.
Rodgers spoke of low confidence levels within his squad being the main source of issues. Of course, that is a factor but how about the structure of the defence? Only Leeds and Southampton have conceded more Premier League goals (75) since the start of last season than Leicester, whose expected goals against data of 81.47 suggests they have been lucky to concede just 75. They could have conceded that many in the second half at Brighton.
It's the second half to produce the most goals market that has triggered my interest here at Evens with Sky Bet. These kinds of markets that are not really priced up on any sort of data or opinion are ones that do possess sustainable edges to explore. It's the same prices offered most weeks on every Premier League. Well, second half to produce the most goals should be a hot favourite here.
Since Antonio Conte took charge of Spurs, only Manchester City and Liverpool have scored more goals in the second half of matches than Spurs' tally of 40. During that same period, only Leeds have shipped more second-half goals than Leicester's 31.
Spurs are notorious slow starters, too, with the second half producing more goals than the first in all three of their last three fixtures in all competitions. Meanwhile, Leicester have conceded two or more goals in five of their six second halves this season in the Premier League. I'm anticipating a cagey beginning before Spurs put their foot down after the break when the Leicester defence is likely to wilt - as it always does.
The match prices look about right to me in what should be a competitive encounter that the away side should edge. Arsenal are favourites at 4/5 with Sky Bet which will tempt many in but it could be time for the Gunners to end their weird run without a draw. It's been 24 Premier League games since one of their games ended all square - the current longest run by any Premier League team. That trend will be broken soon, maybe here at when the price is almost 3/1 with Sky Bet.
For a stronger fancy, I have gone looking in the player shots market for a potential play.
Brentford's desire to defend deep without the ball does leave them exposed to facing shots on their goal from outside the box. They have conceded 38 shots on their goal from range this season - six more than any other side with 12 of those efforts hitting the target. This brings Gabriel Martinelli into the equation of having a shot on target from outside the box at 100/30 with Sky Bet.
Playing off the left and cutting in onto his right foot does open up the space for potential shots from range as seen from his eight efforts from such situations this season - no Arsenal player has had more. Only two of those have hit the target but at the prices offered it should certainly be a bet that will give you a good run for your money.
Yes, Everton have yet to win this season but Frank Lampard deserves more praise than he's receiving. I'm sure that is going to come and he will be flavour of the month soon as this Everton side now look a side capable of moving up the table and causing problems for opposition teams - even ones as well-drilled and talented as West Ham.
According to my eyes and the key performance data, this match should be a closer encounter than the markets say.
Lampard has built a strong spine at the heart of the defence and a midfield that plays with aggression, tenacity and a sprinkling of ability. They ended the game vs Liverpool with Alex Iwobi, Idrissa Gueye and Amadou Onana in there - that's an exciting blend. I'm also not convinced still about West Ham having the required legs in midfield to consistently make their mark in games.
Lampard's side are posting encouraging attacking metrics.
Only Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal and Tottenham have posted more shots on goal in the last five Premier League matchdays than Everton, who racked up a very healthy expected goals tally of 1.72 against Liverpool. They have in fact registered an expected goals figure greater than 1.00 in their last five fixtures. A repeat of those chance creation metrics should see them get on the scoresheet against West Ham, who have lost 10 of their last 17 Premier League games which makes their tags as the 7/5 favourites with Sky Bet look rather skinny.
Additionally, for an unexplained reason at this stage, it's seemingly harder to win away from home in the Premier League this season. Yes, the sample size is small but away teams have won just 20 per cent of their games which is a big drop to the average away win percentage of around 35 per cent over the last five seasons.
This gives me confidence to play Everton grabbing their first win of the season at 2/1 with Sky Bet.
