Highlights of every Premier League game this season will be on the Sky Sports website and app just after full-time; Leicester vs Tottenham postponed due to Covid outbreak
Thursday 16 December 2021 20:45, UK
After nailing six winning betting angles out of nine - all at odds-against - last weekend, plus a 7/2 winning main bet, Jones Knows is back for the midweek action.
Not sure I'd want to be lashing into Chelsea here at 2/9 with Sky Bet having watched them stumble their way to a rather fortunate victory over Leeds at the weekend. The Blues have dropped their levels in the last three weeks and it's hard to pinpoint why and how it's happened. Even Thiago Silva looked rushed and sloppy against Leeds.
Perhaps it's just a confidence thing and Everton might just be the perfect tonic for the champions of Europe to find it again. Everton are winless in six away league games, losing each of their last four in a row and have a habit under Rafa Benitez of only asking questions of teams when one or two goals behind. They can't afford to do that at Stamford Bridge.
I'm going to swerve the match prices and concentrate on player shots with Antonio Rudiger still overpriced in this particular market.
Rudiger, who loves a strike from distance too, has managed at least a shot on goal in 14 of his last 15 appearances across all competitions and has had two or more shots in six of his last 12 Premier League matches. Rudiger is a threat from set pieces, an area Everton in which are notoriously sloppy without Yerry Mina. On Sunday, James Tomkins scored the eighth goal Everton have conceded this season from set pieces this season.
They'll be soaking up pressure and shots should be coming at Jordan Pickford from all angles. Rudiger can fire two of them at 9/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
BETTING ANGLE: Antonio Rudiger to have two or more shots at goal (9/4 with Sky Bet)
Say a little prayer for the Newcastle defence. Liverpool are 1/11 for a home win and with good reason.
With a routine victory on the cards for Liverpool, we could see a scenario where the game is all-but over as a contest by 60 minutes. That has got me interested in the game producing a low card count. Liverpool games against lower-ranked teams are usually low card affairs due to opposition teams unwilling or unable to make the game an open affair. One-sided matches usually are low on cards.
In the last 22 fixtures against teams that finished the season in the bottom four or are currently in the bottom four, Liverpool's games have averaged just 1.7 cards per 90 minutes.
Interestingly, eight of those fixtures produced no cards for both teams which is becoming a common theme in these types of fixtures as five of the last seven have seen the game end with the card count at zero. Two of those fixtures - Liverpool 2-0 Burnley and West Brom 1-2 Liverpool - were refereed by Mike Dean, who is seemingly allowing the game to flow much more than he did in his younger days.
He takes charge here which only adds more fuel to the low card argument. He also refereed Liverpool vs Brighton this season and it took him 89 minutes to brandish the first yellow card before then showing another three in stoppage time. In a one-sided game that could descend into a pedestrian tempo, the 12/1 for Dean to show no cards is worth a tickle.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0
BETTING ANGLE: Neither team to be shown a card (12/1 with Sky Bet)
