Our betting expert Jones Knows, who is in +12.5 of profit this season, puts forward three bets to attack; Leeds vulnerability to be exposed vs West Ham; a Richarlison assist vs Chelsea and a 5/1 Sunday double
Saturday 12 December 2020 21:44, UK
After tipping Angelo Ogbonna to score at 9/1 on Friday, our tipster Jones Knows has two more bets to run this weekend at 18/1 and 5/1.
Meh.
Fulham let me down big style when failing to turn up at Manchester City. Having backed them to get a goal in a 7/2 double with Leander Dendoncker to have shot for Wolves, their inability to get anywhere near Ederson's goal left me flat as a pancake.
Of course, Dendoncker - in a much more advanced position than usual, as predicted - went onto have four shots against Liverpool on Sunday. He was 12/1 to have three or more - a price I was very close to advising on its own.
Life is cruel.
I've got three angles this weekend. Let's keep that profit rolling.
Good luck comrades, and remember, whatever I tip, I back. We're in this together.
P+L = +12.5
Everton aren't quite the top four contenders some had them out to be, but they are a force going forward when Richarlison is available for selection.
In the eight games he's started, Everton average 2.3 goals and create just under 11 chances per 90 minutes. His influence can't be underestimated.
His positioning off the left is very tricky for defenders to pick up as his game is all about being direct and getting into dangerous positions - it's an area Chelsea struggled with against Leeds with Patrick Bamford's goal coming from an attack down that side. Richarlison's dynamic with Dominic Calvert-Lewin isn't quite Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son levels of chemistry but the potential is certainly there on what we've seen this season.
Richarlison has assisted three of Calvert-Lewin's 11 goals this season and the 18/1 on offer for that combination to come up trumps again this weekend just looks far too juicy to ignore.
I'm looking to get two short-priced favourites beat this Sunday. Both Southampton and especially Arsenal are just too skinny at the prices. They must be taken on.
Southampton's current run of results is unsustainable. I mentioned their continued defiance of attacking performance data last weekend but that didn't stop them winning another match despite only creating a non-penalty expected goal figure of 0.67. In their last eight games, Ralph Hasenhuttl's boys have created chances equating to an expected goals figure of 7.3, so just under a goal a game. Yet, Southampton have scored 18 goals in that period, no team have scored more during that time. It's a colossal overperformance and no matter my belief in Hasenhuttl to work miracles, it's unsustainable.
Tight encounters are falling their way - the complete opposition can be said of Sheffield United, who suffered their eighth one-goal margin of defeat already this season against Leicester. They remain winless and the only side in English football yet to pick up an away point this season.
This game does however offer them another chance to get their season moving in the right direction. Chris Wilder's men showed against West Brom, where they created enough chances to win three games, that there is still life in their season. Confidence is of course an issue but if they keep hitting the mark with their current performance levels their results will regress to a mean and should turn shortly. They can avoid defeat at St Mary's.
There's also a strong case to be against Arsenal in the late kick-off. Mikel Arteta's men have netted 10 goals in 11 matches - the same amount as Heung-Min Son this season. They are 15th in the Premier League, deservedly so.
Arteta remained bullish in the post-match briefings after the 2-0 defeat at Tottenham, seemingly quite pleased that Arsenal had carried out his instructions of sending hopeful cross after hopeful cross into the Tottenham box. In their last two fixtures, Arsenal have put 79 crosses into the box, scoring just once and creating an xG figure of just 0.62 in the defeat at Spurs.
Against a deep defence, they are continuously struggling to find answers. And who rocks up at The Emirates this weekend? It's the lead singer of the deep defences. Sean Dyche.
His boys, with Ben Mee leading their charge, look back somewhere near their bulldozing best and can boast the fifth-best defence in the Premier League according to expected goals against data. Arsenal have been priced up at 1/2 here for the win, a stay-clear price if ever I saw one.
Burnley to win or draw, thrown in with a positive Sheffield United result, makes perfect sense to me at a boosted 5/1.
When a strength meets a weakness, strap on your punting boots.
Leeds gave up seven chances from set-piece situations at Chelsea - the most of any team in one fixture this season. In total, opposition teams have created 21 chances against them in the Premier League, only Sheffield United have conceded more. Kurt Zouma's goal for Chelsea via a corner was the fifth Leeds have let slip from set pieces.
Alarm bells would be ringing for most managers regarding the way they were dominated from dead balls against Chelsea, but it's not how Marcelo Bielsa rolls. There's absolutely no chance he'd have been drilling them to become more resolute in that department, it's all about the attacking process for him. And why would he change? It's got Leeds back in the big time.
This area of weakness is likely to be exploited by West Ham, who have become one of the most dangerous teams from set pieces under David Moyes, full of big, powerful players that just love attacking crosses.
Only Chelsea have created more chances from set pieces this season than West Ham (20) with Aaron Cresswell's quality from such situations a key weapon in Moyes' armoury. No player has created more chances than him (12) from set pieces in the Premier League this season with West Ham scoring five goals via this method, including their opening goal against Manchester United last weekend.
The data shows us that Tomas Soucek is the most likely player to get on the end a delicious delivery, having scored twice this season from his 16 shots on goal but he's priced up accordingly at 11/4. I'd much rather have a stab at the 9/1 on offer for Angelo Ogbonna or Fabian Balbuena to score at any time. Both men have already found the net this season and have had 19 touches in the opposition box between them with a combined total of nine shots on goal.
