The Chinese GP talking points

Can Mercedes quell the Ferrari resurgence?

Stunned. Surprised. Shell-shocked. Three of the ways used to describe Mercedes' reaction to being knocked off the top step of an F1 podium for the first time in seven months by Ferrari at Sepang, a race victory that was as unexpected as it was welcome to those yearning for the return of an inter-term fight for supremacy in the sport. While it would be a disservice to Mercedes to suggest that they hadn't seen their rejuvenated Italian rivals' two-stop strategy coming before the Malaysia race - they had, just as Ferrari themselves had seen Mercedes' three-stop plan formulated in qualifying - the fact that Sebastian Vettel was able to ultimately win convincingly over the two Silver Arrows by the best part of 10 seconds still appeared to catch the hitherto serene world champions slightly on the hop.

To the surprise of no one, Mercedes have pointed the finger for their defeat in Malaysia to 'tyre management during long runs' with the W06 having wilted through the combination of medium tyres and 60-degree track temperatures. While the same tyre compound may be being used in China, in combination with the soft this time, the weather will certainly bear little resemblance to Sepang with temperatures likely to be at least 10 degrees cooler. The widespread expectation therefore is that Mercedes will regain the pre-eminence they have held since the onset of F1's turbo revolution, even if Ferrari are still closer to their tails than the 30 seconds they trailed the two W06s by just a month ago in Australia.

If more favourable conditions weren't enough, then Mercedes undoubtedly have history on their side too. Even before the team started sweeping all before them from 2014, the Shanghai International Circuit had always been kind to them owing to the fact it was one of the few circuits which didn't exacerbate their long-time Achilles heel of rear-tyre wear. After leading the race in 2010 and 2011, Nico Rosberg finally delivered the first pole and victory for the second incarnation of the Silver Arrows in 2012, before Lewis Hamilton claimed another pole 12 months later. If Mercedes had to pick a circuit to deliver an immediate response to a challenge to their supremacy, Shanghai would probably be it.

Time for Rosberg to arrest the slide

Just where has Nico Rosberg got to in 2015? Since topping Hamilton in the opening practice sessions at Melbourne, Rosberg has been second best to his team-mate in 12 of the subsequent 15 timed sessions this year, only heading Hamilton in the first and third practice sessions at Sepang and a rain-affected Qualifying Two. The 2014 gap between  the two Mercedes drivers has become a chasm in 2015.

Despite enjoying the perfect winter in pre-season testing - completing more laps than any other driver and setting the fastest time recorded at Barcelona - Rosberg has started 2015 badly off form. After making a hash of qualifying in Australia - remember his Q3 excursion on to the grass? - he assumed observer status behind Hamilton on race day and was then soundly beaten by both Vettel and Hamilton in Malaysia on Saturday and Sunday. The small print was even more troubling. If his lame 'open door' defence against the Ferrari was symptomatic of a driver not at the top of his game, Rosberg's subsequent struggle to understand that losing out to Vettel would mean defeat in the race was tantamount to an admission that Nico's attention to detail, a central tenant to last year's title bid, is currently on the wane.

All that said, Rosberg is hardly under pressure just yet. He still has multiple years to run on his current contract and he's still very much in favour amongst the Mercedes hierarchy. Moreover, we've been here before; this time last year, Hamilton was in the midst of a four-race winning run that looked to have broken Rosberg's title tilt until qualifying in Monaco put a dramatic twist in the tale. Even now, having barely turned up for the opening two events of the season, he's still within a mere 10 points of the summit.

But while Ferrari's sudden leap forward has distracted attention from Rosberg's subdued start, there could be trouble ahead if the Scuderia maintain their unexpected forward march and Rosberg continues to play second fiddle to Hamilton. Proffering equal status is straightforward business when two team-mates are in an exclusive fight for the title, but what happens if an external contender - such as Vettel, or even Kimi Raikkonen - emerges in the title fight? It's a question that Rosberg doesn't want answering .

The happiest man in motorsport

There are few better sights in life than someone plainly loving their job, which is why it was so heartwarming to observe Fernando Alonso at the Malaysia GP. The Spaniard lit up Sepang with his beaming smile throughout the weekend: it was evident when he commiserated with McLaren engineers after qualifying 18th and was reflected in the joke he shared with Sky Sports F1’s Rachel Brookes a little later - that, despite being 2.5 seconds off Lewis Hamilton's pace, the improvement they'd made since Melbourne means that he'll probably be on pole position by the time F1 returns to Europe. "The happiest man in motorsport" commented an admiring Martin Brundle.

But how to explain? Perhaps it was simply a reflection of Alonso's delight at being back in the cockpit after his mysterious pre-season testing accident; if so, the hope is that certain other drivers - whose cups don’t necessarily overflow with joy, even at the best of times - might also have taken notice. It could be down to the satisfaction gained in helping the renewed McLaren-Honda partnership make its first steps - faltering, awkward steps to be sure, but important ones nevertheless.

Alas for them, it sounds as though they’re not expecting quite such a leap in China this weekend, not in terms of outright performance anyway. But the assumption must be that Alonso will now maintain his chipper demeanour as he, McLaren and Honda continue to chip away at the MP4-30 in the expectation that they might, eventually, turn it into a winner and move back where they belong: competing with the likes of Mercedes and Ferrari, who won so impressively a fortnight ago with Alonso’s replacement, Sebastian Vettel, behind the wheel. One can only assume that they have also been recipients of his heartfelt goodwill. If Alonso’s time at Maranello taught him anything, it was probably that patience is the best virtue of all.

Can Toro Rosso stay ahead of big brother Red Bull?

It creates an awkward moment in a family when a younger sibling suddenly betters their experienced and successful brother or sister at their speciality - and the same situation is playing out in the F1 paddock. Only this time it is in front of millions of eyes around the world as both of Toro Rosso’s rookie drivers finished ahead of both Red Bulls - the team Max Verstappen and Carlos Sainz are hoping to be considered worthy of a seat with in the future - in Malaysia.

During pre-season Franz Tost described the STR10 as the best Toro Rosso ever, but you would struggle to believe that the car's design is the only reason why they are ahead of Red Bull. There are a number of talented engineers and designers in Milton Keynes and they have proved themselves capable of building front running cars over the previous six years.

Could it be the drivers? Verstappen and Sainz have proved to be no slouches in the opening two races and far from being overawed by F1, aren’t shy to make a bold overtake. But Daniel Ricciardo and Daniil Kvyat are proven race winners in F1 and GP3 respectively. Perhaps, then, it is a more difficult working environment given the tensions at the senior squad.

Renault will have had two weeks to work on their software before this weekend’s race and progress should have been made presuming the computer numbers correspond on the track. Tensions also seem to be easing with Helmut Marko stating that Toro Rosso could change livery to allow Renault greater marketing recognition. Working together rather than blaming each other should translate into better on-track performances, but there could still be a sting in the tale for Red Bull. With Renault powering both squads, it doesn't follow that an engine upgrade will automatically result in Red Bull usurping their junior outfit. In fact, it could only make Toro Rosso's advantage even more conspicuous.