F1 title permutations: How Max Verstappen can clinch 2024 championship at Las Vegas GP vs Lando Norris

Max Verstappen will start ahead of Lando Norris for the Las Vegas Grand Prix and could secure a fourth successive Formula 1 world championship title on Sunday.

Having struggled throughout practice, Verstappen qualified fifth to beat Norris by 0.211s, with the McLaren driver starting in sixth.

While one eye will need to be kept on how pole-sitter George Russell gets off the line compared to second-placed driver Carlos Sainz, attention will also be on the title protagonists on the third row when the lights go out in Las Vegas at 6am on Sunday, live on Sky Sports F1 and Main Event.

• Follow live updates and watch best video from the Las Vegas GP
• Stream the Las Vegas Grand Prix and more on NOW | When to watch live on Sky
• Max Verstappen vs Lando Norris: The story of the title fight
• How it stands in the F1 world championship tables

"At the moment it's difficult to tell," Verstappen told Sky Sports F1 on his chances of sealing the championship ahead of the final two races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.

"Both me and the McLarens were not great on the long run, we both 'degged' on the tyres compared to other teams.

"But a lot of teams have made changes so only time will tell tomorrow how we will perform."

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Norris must outscore Verstappen by at least three points to keep the title race alive, meaning he will need to overtake the Red Bull driver.

"I'll do everything I can, of course. That's what I'm here to do. I'm not going to give up until the end, even if the chance is extremely thin," said Norris.

"But I'm here to do the best in every race I can, whether I'm fighting for a championship or not. So I'll go out tomorrow, it's a long race, many things can happen. We're quick in the straight so hopefully that can come to our advantage."

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What's the state of play in the championship now?

After Norris had got close to the Dutchman in the championship since the season's fourth round back in April by winning the Saturday Sprint in Sao Paulo, Verstappen's brilliant win in the main Grand Prix on the Sunday means his advantage is now back out to a commanding 62 points.

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How many points are left to play for?

A maximum of just 86 points are now available across the final three race weekends that remain this season as part of a triple-header of Las Vegas (November 24), Qatar (December 1) and Abu Dhabi (December 8) which concludes the campaign.

That breaks down as a maximum of 26 points in each of the three grands prix, plus eight from the final Sprint of the year in Qatar.

So can Verstappen win the title in Las Vegas?

Verstappen will clinch his fourth world title on the streets of the Las Vegas Strip Circuit if he finishes the race 60 points or more clear of Norris in the standings.

To put it most simply, Verstappen definitely takes the title in Vegas if he finishes the race ahead of Norris in any position. Were they both to fail to score, the Red Bull driver would also end the weekend as a four-time champion.

Verstappen can also clinch the crown in several scenarios even if he finishes behind Norris, provided he is not outscored by the McLaren driver by more than two points.

So Verstappen is world champion in Las Vegas...

• If he finishes ahead of Norris in any position
• If Norris is second (18 points) and he finishes third with the fastest lap (16 points)
• If Norris is third (15 points) and he finishes fourth with the fastest lap (13 points)
• If Norris is fourth without the fastest lap (12 points) and he finishes fifth (10 points)
• If Norris is fifth without the fastest lap (10 points) and he finishes sixth (8 points)
• If Norris is sixth without the fastest lap (8 points) and he finishes seventh (6 points)
• If Norris is seventh without the fastest lap (6 points) and he finishes eighth (4 points)
• If Norris is eighth without the fastest lap (4 points) and Max finishes ninth (2 points)
• If Norris is ninth without the fastest lap or lower (2 points or fewer) irrespective of he finishes

How can Norris take it on to Qatar?

Conversely, the McLaren driver must therefore outscore Verstappen by three points or more in Las Vegas to make sure he ends the race with a reduced deficit of 59 points or fewer to keep him in contention for at least one more week.

It's 59 because although there are still 60 points left to play for in the two rounds that follow, Verstappen's Sao Paulo win meant he is now guaranteed to win any results countback in the event the pair finished level of points at the end of the season.

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The Red Bull driver now has eight race wins to the three of Norris, who can now only reach a maximum of six.

Norris can therefore stay in the hunt for at least one further round to Qatar if:

• He wins the race (25 points)
• He finishes second (18 points) and Verstappen is third (15 points) without the fastest lap
• He finishes third (15 points) and Verstappen is fourth (12 points) without the fastest lap
• He finishes fourth with the fastest lap (13 points) and Verstappen is fifth (10 points)
• He finishes fifth with the fastest lap (11 points) and Verstappen is sixth (8 points)
• He finishes sixth with the fastest lap (9 points) and Verstappen is seventh (6 points)
• He finishes seventh with the fastest lap (7 points) and Verstappen is eighth (4 points)
• He finishes eighth with the fastest lap (5 points) and Verstappen is ninth (2 points)
• He finishes ninth with the fastest lap (3 points) and Verstappen is 11th or lower (0 points)

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Is anyone else still in mathematical contention?

After the stunning events of Sao Paulo, the answer is no - it's officially and mathematically now down to Verstappen vs Norris.

Ferrari's Charles Leclerc has slipped to as many points behind Verstappen as are still available this season - 86 - but Verstappen's eight wins to the Monegasque's three mean that, again, the Dutchman is already assured to win any end-of-year tiebreaker.

Third-placed Leclerc could still take second place from Norris though, with 24 points separating the pair.

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Sky Sports F1's live Las Vegas GP schedule

Sunday November 24
4.30am: Grand Prix Sunday: Las Vegas GP build-up*
6am: THE LAS VEGAS GRAND PRIX*
8am: Chequered Flag: Las Vegas GP reaction*
9am: Ted's Notebook*

*also live on Sky Sports Main Event

Watch the Las Vegas Grand Prix live on Sky Sports F1 and Sky Sports Main Event at 6am on Sunday, where Max Verstappen could seal the championship. Stream the final three F1 races and more with a NOW Sports Month Membership - No contract, cancel anytime

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