F1 2024 Constructors' Championship: McLaren's hopes of holding off Ferrari and Red Bull in title race analysed
McLaren lead Ferrari and Red Bull in the Constructors' Championship with three rounds remaining; find out how the title will be decided and who the remaining circuits are likely to suit; watch the Las Vegas GP weekend live on Sky Sports F1, with Sunday's race at 6am
Wednesday 20 November 2024 18:39, UK
While Max Verstappen is on the brink of sealing the drivers' crown, a potentially thrilling climax to the battle for the Constructors' Championship is set to play out over the final three rounds for the 2024 Formula 1 season.
Verstappen's remarkable victory at the Sao Paulo Grand Prix all but ended Lando Norris' title challenge, but it's a very different story in the teams' contest where the Dutchman's Red Bull squad are the clear underdog to leaders McLaren and second-placed Ferrari.
The competition has ebbed and flowed throughout the season, with Mercedes even threatening to join the chase with three wins in four races over the summer, before falling away.
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It now comes down to the season-ending triple header, starting under the lights of Las Vegas before moving onto a Sprint weekend in Qatar and finishing up in Abu Dhabi, with every session live on Sky Sports F1.
It may have been a disappointing weekend on the whole for McLaren in Brazil, but they were still able to increase their Constructors' Championship lead over Ferrari.
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The one-two that Norris led from team-mate Oscar Piastri in the Sprint, along with sixth and eighth respectively in the race, grew the Woking squad's advantage to 36 points.
Charles Leclerc finished a place ahead of Norris in the race, but Carlos Sainz's retirement meant McLaren's lead was extended on both Saturday and Sunday in Sao Paulo.
Verstappen's brilliant victory in the rain kept Red Bull just about in touch, 49 points back from McLaren in third place.
What points are available?
Each team has the potential to claim a maximum of 44 points on a regular race weekend, with 25 points going to the winner, 18 to the driver that finishes second, and an extra point available for the fastest lap of the race.
That's what will be on offer in Las Vegas and at the season finale in Abu Dhabi, but in Qatar there are 15 more points available for each constructor, with eight points going to the Sprint winner and seven to the second-placed finisher.
It's worth remembering that even if a team was able to pull off the impressive feat of claiming a one-two, or a double one-two at a Sprint weekend, their lead is unlikely to grow by the full haul given there is every chance the others will also be scoring points.
It's impossible for McLaren - or anyone other team - to seal the title in Las Vegas as they would need to be 104 points clear of their rivals at the end of the weekend. Even if McLaren claimed a one-two and Ferrari left Vegas empty handed, the gap would still only be at 80 points ahead of the Qatar Grand Prix.
A more realistic possibility and target for McLaren would be to prevent the championship going down to the wire in Abu Dhabi, which to achieve they would need to be 45 points clear of their rivals going into the final round. That would mean extending their current advantage by 9 points over the next two events.
However, neutrals would undoubtedly love to see the battle run to the end of the season.
In the event it does get tight, it's worth remembering that a tie for first or second would be decided on countback of which team has won more races this season. Red Bull are on eight wins, while McLaren and Ferrari have five each.
In the event two teams had the same number of wins, it would then go down to which team had recorded the most second-placed finishes, and so on.
Why is the Constructors' Championship so important?
It's not romantic, but the main answer is: money. While the Drivers' Championship carries more prestige, the Constructors' Championship is what dictates the distribution of Formula 1's considerable prize pot.
The pot is 50 per cent of Formula 1's commercial rights revenue for each season, so the reported profit of $3.2bn (£2.3bn) for 2023 would have resulted in an estimated fund of $1.6bn (£1.2bn).
After some bonuses are taken out of that, such as Ferrari's five per cent to recognise their contribution to the sport's global popularity, the remaining amount is split between all 10 teams, with the champions receiving an estimated 14 per cent, and the team that comes last claiming six per cent.
Therefore in 2023, winners Red Bull would have earned an estimated $140m (£106m), with each team below them gradually receiving less.
The difference between each position in 2023 was an estimated £7m, which goes some way to explaining why the battle for midfield and even the final positions are just as fiercely contested as those at the front.
However, particularly this year, there is a lot more than money on the line, with McLaren and Ferrari both seeking to end lengthy championship droughts.
Ferrari last won the constructors' title in 2008, while McLaren's last triumph was in 1998. McLaren did finish top of the 2007 standings but were disqualified following the 'Spygate' case.
These are two of the sport's most famous teams, both desperate to end the domination of Red Bull and Mercedes since Ferrari's last title.
While there is no doubting that McLaren team principal Andrea Stella and his Ferrari counterpart Frederic Vasseur have done fine jobs since taking over their respective teams ahead of the 2023 season, delivering silverware will add significant momentum for one of them.
Why Red Bull are big outsiders?
Considering Red Bull have eight race wins compared to five each for McLaren and Ferrari, someone not following the 2024 F1 season could be forgiven for wondering how they are third in the constructors' standings and seen as the clear outsider.
There's a clue in the fact that all eight of those wins have come from Verstappen, but even that statistic doesn't illustrate the full extent of his team-mate Sergio Perez's remarkable struggles.
Perez started his campaign in very solid form, claiming four podiums as he finished in the top five at each of the first six races. But this was when the RB20 was still clearly the class of the field.
In the next 15 races, Perez's best result is a sixth-placed finish, while he has come seventh on four occasions and eighth three times.
Given the cutthroat nature of Red Bull's handling of their drivers, it is quite stunning that the Mexican is still occupying his seat with three races to go.
His form has only worsened recently, with just two points finishes in the last five grands prix, and three early qualifying exits during that streak.
Regrettably for Red Bull, they cannot have any confidence that Perez will deliver any points during the final three rounds, which means even if Verstappen won all three races they would not be claiming the sort of points required to chase down McLaren.
In contrast, the success of McLaren and Ferrari has been built on two drivers consistently delivering strong hauls of points.
Oscar Piastri has continued to develop impressively in his second F1 season, claiming two victories and at times proving a thorn in the side of his team-mate's title challenge.
Even amid a recent dip in form, the Australian is still making useful points contributions that could be crucial in getting McLaren over the line.
At Ferrari, the outgoing Carlos Sainz has made some wonder whether the Italian team will regret their decision to replace him with Hamilton next year, with his performances this year leaving little to choose between himself and Leclerc.
While Stella and Vasseur can count on both of their drivers to deliver just about every weekend, Red Bull won't have a chance unless Perez an upturn in form as remarkable as the drop-off has been.
Which team is best suited to the remaining circuits?
The final three tracks each have different characteristics, which are likely to produce different pecking orders.
On paper, which can turn out to mean little, Ferrari should be very strong in Las Vegas, at which success is mostly dictated by performance in traction zones, and straight-line speed.
Ferrari's car has great mechanical grip, so turns nicely in the slow-speed corners and the engine seems to be pretty punchy out of the corners too. These were the characteristics that played a big role in their dominant one-two at the United States Grand Prix last month.
However, the Losail International Circuit in Qatar is almost the complete opposite of Vegas, as it mostly features high-speed corners, which makes having good aerodynamics perhaps the crucial element.
McLaren were quick in Qatar last year as they took a double podium and Piastri won the Sprint. Their 2024 machine is still the car to beat when it comes to the high-speed turns, so they should have the edge there.
Abu Dhabi is a halfway house of Las Vegas and Qatar, so McLaren and Ferrari should be relatively evenly matched at the season finale.
Where Red Bull sit among all of this depends on whether Sao Paulo was a one-off, or if breakthroughs have actually been made to get the RB20 back on form.
Ignoring the wet race at Interlagos, Saturday's Sprint was dry and Verstappen had plenty of pace despite being stuck behind Leclerc for the majority of the shortened race, but the Dutchman didn't possess anything like the sort of advantage he held on Sunday.
Regardless of whether Red Bull are genuinely back in the mix in terms of pace, the slow-speed corners in Las Vegas and Abu Dhabi are the sort that have troubled RB20 on occasions this season, making those two events potentially challenging.
Formula 1 returns with the Las Vegas Grand Prix on November 22-24, live on Sky Sports F1 where Max Verstappen could seal the championship. Stream the final three F1 races and more with a NOW Sports Month Membership - No contract, cancel anytime
