It's in Rosberg's hands... but do Ferrari have something up their sleeve?
Though Nico Rosberg was playing the team game in his post-race interview - claiming he couldn't be fully satisfied with qualifying because he didn't get to fight with Lewis Hamilton - this weekend seems to be following the season's trend in playing directly into his hands.
As if the five-place grid penalty and lack of running for his team-mate wasn't enough, the German will get to start the race on the soft tyre, in complete control of strategy with his rivals rocking supersofts, after Mercedes' gutsy call in Q2.
Rosberg hadn't quite hit top Saturday form this year but his final lap time, perhaps with the help of the advanced engine mode (or Viagra, as Ferrari boss Maurizio Arrivabene joked), would have been more than competitive even if Hamilton had made it into Q3. His 1:35.402 was almost four tenths faster than last season's pole lap.
With Kimi Raikkonen and Sebastian Vettel in third and fourth, Daniel Ricciardo's presence in P2 may just protect Rosberg slightly even if Ferrari make one of their flying starts.
Mistakes on the final lap from both Scuderia drivers cost them dear, and using the supersofts throughout Q2 and Q3 it was a strategy call that really needed an end result of at least second.
However, while Mercedes feel that the supersofts would barely be fit for five laps, Ferrari proved in practice on Friday that they could make the red compound last for longer than most, with Raikkonen admitting he only really felt comfortable on that tyre.
Toto Wolff doubted Ferrari had made the right call, but was still wary. "Ferrari are a threat because the long runs are very good," he told Sky F1. "They could be gambling on that so we are taking them very seriously. Kimi made the supersoft last two or three laps more than we did yesterday."
Hamilton back in familiar territory
There wasn't much missing from Lewis Hamilton's 2015 title-winning season, when he produced some of his most accomplished performances in F1. But the drama which has so often accompanied - and in some regards defined - his career was rarely in evidence.
But the roller-coaster narrative is certainly back with vengeance so far in 2016. Having seen the first two races turned into damage limitation exercises by poor starts, Hamilton now has the ultimate salvage job on in Shanghai after energy-recovery problems meant he could even set a lap time in qualifying. The five-place grid penalty he would have had to take anyway suddenly looks like a minor inconvenience.
Yet, the fact the world champion already knew from his arrival in China that he would be starting sixth at best on Sunday means his mindset for the weekend doesn't actually need to change - it's just the challenge which has got a whole lot harder.
Hamilton only missed the front-row once last season, but lower starting positions were more regular occurrences the year before - and he even started last then, in Hungary. The vast Shanghai circuit is certainly more overtaking-friendly than Budapest, although Hamilton isn't expecting his stockpile of tyres to be quite as big an advantage as they might as be.
"You can overtake here," he told Sky F1. "Tyres don't last as well, so it's perhaps not as simple as it was in that race. But, of course, I'll give it everything I've got to try and get up. It isn't over until it's over."
It certainly isn't. With 18 races still to come after Sunday, the championship will remain very open heading back to Europe, irrespective of how many more points polesitter Rosberg stretches clear this weekend. But Hamilton, as so often pre-2015, is certainly having to do it all the hard way at the moment.
Go faster haircut is working for Ricciardo
Is a trip to Natalie Pinkham's for a dodgy haircut the secret formula for Daniel Ricciardo? After his performance in qualifying, we would suggest so.
The Australian secured his best Saturday performance since last season's Singapore GP, nailing his final lap to finish half a second down on Rosberg. He may have been helped by Ferrari's errors but even they wouldn't have expected to be kept apart from the Mercedes in Shanghai.
Ricciardo also finished 0.4s ahead of team-mate Daniil Kvyat - who qualified on used tyres - and, with a seat at the Scuderia possibly available in 2017, has started the campaign in stunning form.
Despite the pre-season worries, Red Bull have firmly cemented themselves as the third fastest team in Formula 1, much to the surprise of Christian Horner - and the team boss was nearly lost for words after Ricciardo's performance in China.
"Where on earth that came from..." he told Sky F1, after saluting the 26-year-old's "go faster haircut" over team radio. "I'm quite shocked actually. To qualify on the front row is an incredible performance, he just got quicker and quicker and quicker. The wind actually made it quite tricky but he nailed it.
Ricciardo 'surprised and delighted'
"We had a joke that if he wins this race he has to keep this haircut for the year, which his mother will kill him for!"
Ricciardo even suggested that he was warming to his haircut and would consider keeping it as a lucky charm, despite his mother's displeasure.
He added: "Second is pretty awesome - we didn't expect this!"
Proof that old is best
After consecutive grands prix with confusion surrounding the farce that was elimination qualifying, it was great to get back to a tried and tested system in Shanghai.
"Chequered flag waving and a dozen cars on track," said Martin Brundle at the end of Q1. "This feels a little bit better to me."
The team bosses made their case clear to F1 chief Bernie Ecclestone and FIA president Jean Todt - either revert back to the 2015 system or don't bother changing at all. With all the complications that surround modern F1 racing, it's crucial that any tinkering in the future comes after a significant amount of talks and testing.
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Q2 may have been disrupted early but that was only down to a red flag, with the rest of the session bringing us the qualifying excitement we have grown accustomed to. Vettel for instance, waited as long as he possibly could to try and usurp Rosberg at the end of Saturday's running.
Brundle quipped: "There's something Senna-esque I feel about this, Vettel to finish his lap after the flag has dropped."
While that Senna moment didn't quite materialise, eyes were glued on qualifying until the very last second, exactly how it should be.
Watch the Chinese GP on Sunday - LIVE ONLY on Sky Sports F1. The race starts at 7am, with build-up underway from 5.30am. Or watch without a contract for £6.99 on NOW TV.