Skip to content

Arsenal transfer window: Is Arsene Wenger's faith in forwards justified?

Graphic

With Arsenal making only one signing in the summer transfer window, is Arsene Wenger’s apparent faith in his squad justified? We examine the stats that suggest he’ll need much more from his forwards if the doubters are to be silenced…

The early optimism that followed the arrival of Petr Cech feels some time ago now. Arsenal fans watched and they waited. But to no avail. The only club in Europe's top five leagues not to sign an outfield player. The only Premier League side not to bring in at least five new bodies. Cech's arrival was the beginning and the end of Arsenal's transfer activity this summer.

It's all so familiar to supporters. They will have afforded themselves a chuckle at Manchester United's messy dealings and perhaps even bemusement at Manchester City's spending. But any crumbs of comfort taken by Arsene Wenger's vantage point on the moral high ground will be tempered by the reality of being lower in the table than those anticipated title rivals.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Ex-Arsenal midfielder John Jensen Wenger is 'far better' than Jose Mourinho

Karim Benzema was a link to excite but it came without much expectation. Seasoned supporters know better than that. Edinson Cavani's early season goals will only have frustrated, in the knowledge that, at 28, the forward had surely missed his cut-off date for Arsenal to part with significant funds.

Arsenal need a midfielder
Arsenal need a midfielder

Signing a midfielder the priority for Arsenal, says Charlie Nicholas.

While faith in Francis Coquelin is likely to be sufficient to ensure Gunners fans will be hoping he can prove Gary Neville's assessment wrong and become the snarling midfielder many believe he can be, it's Thierry Henry's assertion that Arsenal still need a "top, top quality striker" in place of Olivier Giroud that remains troubling.

"I think he is wrong," said Wenger of his former star striker. "I can accept that is an opinion, but the comment on Giroud was a bit more wrong. Especially because I heard the same thing being said about [Nicolas] Anelka, about Thierry Henry himself and about Robin van Persie, and they all became world-class players themselves."

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Thierry Henry believes that Arsenal tried to buy this summer

With Giroud turning 29 this month, the Frenchman's world-class potential is debatable to say the least. But what's not up for negotiation is Wenger's policy of giving his players every opportunity to show that they are good enough. The budgets are rising at the Emirates Stadium but the faith of the man at the helm remains the same.

Also See:

"We want to continue to combine stronger financial resources with faith in our philosophy and policy," said Wenger. "That means we want to continue to give chances to young players and build players from inside our club with our culture. Afterwards, if we can buy the exceptional players, we can compete today but that will not be the basis of our policy."

Walcott sure goals will come
Walcott sure goals will come

Theo Walcott is convinced he will rediscover his goal-scoring touch this season.

But how costly could that policy prove to be when it comes to Arsenal's forward options? The evidence of last season would suggest such faith is misplaced. Arsenal created exactly the same number of clear-cut chances (66) as Chelsea and Manchester City last season. But they missed far more of them too. Finishing was a factor in them falling short.

The early signs this season are particularly alarming. Opta define a clear-cut chance as one that a player might reasonably be expected to score - for example, a one-on-one opportunity or a shot from very close range. Arsenal have yet to convert one such chance. Watford are the only other Premier League team for which that's the case.

Graphic
Image: Missing clear-cut opportunities has been a problem for Arsenal this season

Unlike the newly-promoted side, who haven't found the net since the opening weekend, it's not a reflection of a lack of creativity. Arsenal are continuing to create but making it count remains an issue. No team has missed more clear-cut chances than the Gunners this season and the identity of the culprits hints at the problem.

There are seven Premier League players who have missed more than one clear-cut chance this season without scoring from any of those opportunities - and three of them are Arsenal forwards. Giroud wasted good chances at home to West Ham and Liverpool, while Alexis Sanchez and Theo Walcott were fortunate that their profligacy was not equally costly against Crystal Palace and Newcastle respectively.

If the team does well it is down to him and, if on top of that he scores 20 or more goals, he has done his job.
Arsene Wenger on Olivier Giroud

Giroud did find the net with a fine volley at Selhurst Park but it's the straightforward ones that need to go in as well. Wenger is likely to be unmoved. "What I know is Giroud works very hard for the team and has a fantastic mentality and if the team does well it is down to him and, if on top of that he scores 20 or more goals, he has done his job," he said earlier this year. But what if Giroud doesn't score 20 goals or more? History suggests that is a significant question when it comes to Arsenal's title credentials.

Graphic
Image: Recent title winners could count on a 20-goal man. Do Arsenal have one?

In each of the past six seasons, the Premier League champions have had a player score 20 goals. Giroud has failed to score more than 16 in any of his three seasons at Arsenal, neither Sanchez nor Walcott have ever scored 20 goals in a league season anywhere and Danny Welbeck is yet to reach double figures in his career. There's faith. And then there are leaps of faith.

Arsenal remain a potent side peppered with quality and that target of 20 seasons in the top four is eminently attainable. But fans hoping this would be the summer that saw them make the signings that would bridge the gap to the top are likely to be feeling disappointed once again. Wasted opportunity or justified faith? Arsenal's season rests on the answer.

Around Sky