Analysis

Liverpool: What can stop Arne Slot's side from winning the Premier League?

Liverpool are now nine points clear at the top of the Premier League, their biggest margin as leaders in the competition since the final day of the 2019-20 campaign; Reds travel to Newcastle United on Wednesday night, then to archrivals Everton on Saturday lunchtime

Richard Morgan

Football journalist @Richiereds1976

Monday 2 December 2024 17:38, UK

The Opta Supercomputer says Liverpool now have a 85.1 per cent of winning the Premier League after their 2-0 win over champions Man City on Super Sunday saw them go nine points clear at the top - so what can stop Arne Slot's side from being crowned champions this season?

Liverpool's dominant victory at Anfield over a City team that had won a record-breaking four successive top-flight titles in a row heading into this campaign gave the Reds a cavernous 11-point advantage over Pep Guardiola's side, while they also lead both Arsenal and Chelsea by nine points as we head into the busy Christmas period - the second-biggest lead at this stage of a Premier League season.

Slot understandably was quick to dampen down expectations after the final whistle on Sunday, saying: "I saw Arsenal yesterday [Saturday] and Chelsea today [Sunday] and I saw City, they will come back because these teams have so much quality. They could go on the same run as us. So, we have to stay sharp and focused."

However, while also urging caution, Roy Keane - a serial title-winner during his time with Man Utd - believes the momentum in this season's title race is now very much with Liverpool.

"You don't get any league medal in December, but this team will take some stopping," said Keane on Super Sunday.

So, what could derail the Reds' seemingly unstoppable title charge?

'Suddenly when you think you have it, one day it collapses'

Sure, everything looks rosy in the Reds' garden at present, but things can change very quickly in football - just ask Man City who after beating Southampton to go back to the top of the table on October 26, extending their unbeaten league run to 32 matches in the process, have not won a game in any competition since to fall out of the top four.

Liverpool now face two tough-looking fixtures on the road, starting at Newcastle United on Wednesday night, before then being first out of the traps on the weekend when they take on city-rivals Everton on Saturday lunchtime in what is expected to be the final-ever Merseyside derby at Goodison Park. And they also only now have one league game at fortress Anfield between now and Christmas.

Liverpool fixtures

Sean Dyche's side roused themselves to beat Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool 2-0 at home in April to all but end their title hopes then, despite fighting relegation at the time, so this clash will be no pushover for the visitors despite the Toffees struggling near the drop zone once again.

And former Liverpool captain Jamie Carragher agrees that the Reds' next two matches - they also only now have one league game at fortress Anfield between now and Christmas - will be pivotal for their title hopes this season, telling Sky Sports:

"I think whenever there's a week of three Premier League games in a week, a lot can change. Now, no disrespect to Man City, they've been amazing for the last five or six years.

"But when I looked at this week, I looked at Newcastle away Wednesday night and then play Everton away 12.30pm next Saturday.

"That's a quick turnaround. If Liverpool could come through that with four to six points, they are in a great position. Because if I'm an Arsenal player or the manager looking at the next two games Liverpool have, they're not easy."

Liverpool, of course, need look no further than Arsenal to remind themselves that leads of this size are easily blowable, with the Gunners holding an eight-point advantage in January 2023, only for City to storm back and take the title by five points - something Mikel Arteta was quick to recently remind his rivals of.

"We've been there and to sustain it for 10 months is extremely difficult," said the Arsenal manager. "Suddenly when you think you have it, one day it collapses."

Will injuries & suspensions start to take a toll?

Liverpool currently have the joint third-most injuries of any Premier League team after losing both Conor Bradley and Ibrahima Konate to knocks late on in their 2-0 win against Real Madrid at Anfield in the Champions League on Wednesday night.

Those two players have joined the likes of Alisson Becker [hamstring], Konstantinos Tsimikas [ankle], Federico Chiesa [unknown] and Diogo Jota [chest] as all being currently unavailable for Slot, although the hope is that the former will soon be fit to feature having now returned to training.

Meanwhile, Alexis Mac Allister [and Konate] has also picked up four bookings so far this season, meaning the key Argentina midfielder is now one caution away from being banned for two league matches.

It is in defence, though, that Slot will be most concerned, with Liverpool currently without two of their first-choice back line, while both their backup full backs are also sidelined, meaning any injury to the likes of captain Virgil van Dijk, Andy Robertson, or the recently fit-again Trent Alexander Arnold would leave the Dutchman down to just Jarell Quansah, who replaced the latter for the final quarter of an hour against City, as defensive cover.

"I think if they was to lose Salah or Van Dijk, it's different," said Micah Richards on Super Sunday. "We talked about the big players turning up. I mentioned [Martin] Odegaard and [Bukayo] Saka for Arsenal.

"Obviously Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne for Man City. I think if you lose Van Dijk and Salah, things become a lot different. If they stay fit, then it's very difficult for everyone else."

Carragher, meanwhile, agrees that were his former side to suffer any more injuries at the back, that could impact their current momentum.

"Well just look at the injuries right now," he said. "I think if they got another one or two injuries certainly defensively they'd have a problem. A real problem they may end up having to put maybe a midfield player, a full back there."

Exertions from competing on four fronts

Slot's record-breaking start to his Reds reign has been so impressive that Liverpool are still competing on all four fronts, however, such success does bring its own challenges.

It means the Reds now face a jam-packed fixture schedule, with a Carabao Cup quarter-final at Southampton on December 18, as well as three more UEFA Champions League fixtures before they begin the knockout phase of the competition in the spring and the start of the FA Cup in January.

And all this alongside crucial league encounters this winter, meaning Slot will now have to be perfect with his team selections, making full use of a squad starting to feel the bite from injuries, while also hoping his medical team - led by new head of physical performance Ruben Peeters - can get his other stars back to full fitness ASAP.

Klopp's Liverpool found themselves with a similar conundrum in their 2019-20 title-winning campaign, so much so that they ultimately had to make a decision between playing their strongest line-up in the Club World Cup, while fielding a team of youngsters that went on to lose 5-0 at Aston Villa in a League Cup quarter-final.

Liverpool also ultimately ran out of steam while trying to win historic Quadruples in 2021-22 and last season, with Carragher suggesting Slot should only now pick his first-choice XI in top-flight and European matches.

"Domestic cup competitions [could be a problem]," said Carragher on Super Sunday. "Last season and a couple of years before that Liverpool, at this stage of the season we're talking about four trophies.

"And one season they ended up winning the two domestic cups, but lost the Champions League final, lost the Premier League on the final day to City.

"Last season I was talking about the Europa League, they won the Carabao Cup and the FA Cup game at Manchester United just absolutely almost finished the season in some ways. Now you cannot deliberately lose games or try and not do as well as you can.

"You're Liverpool, you have to compete in every competition. But if I was giving the manager any advice I would not be playing any first-team players in domestic cup competitions because the reason no one's ever won four trophies in a season before because it's almost impossible.

"That could be a problem for them. If they could just concentrate on the league and the Champions League, I think they're going to take some stopping."

Under pressure: Could Reds lose their nerve?

Liverpool came into this season with no one tipping them for the title after Klopp's exit last summer, meaning they have been allowed in many ways to slip under the radar so far.

"This season they have gone under the radar in terms of a lot of people were talking about City and Arsenal fighting for the title and not so much talked about Liverpool, so I think that's helped them in a way, they've had less pressure on their shoulders," City forward Phil Foden recently said.

"There is still a long way to go and we know how quickly it can change."

The England international is right and with Liverpool having also only lost one match in all competitions so far this season, barely falling behind in any encounters either, Slot and co have not really had any pressure to deal with.

So it will be interesting to see just how the seemingly ice-cool Dutchman reacts if the Reds so start losing games.

Off-field distractions

Salah and Van Dijk were once again asked about their futures at Anfield in the aftermath of Liverpool's win against City, with the former's "we will see what happens" line causing yet more consternation about the club's fanbase.

And with both players, as well as Alexander-Arnold - who are all able to speak to overseas suitors from January 1 - still to agree terms on new deals at Anfield, with their current contracts expiring at the end of this campaign, this is an off-field distraction Slot would really do without right now,

"All I am asking for is for Salah not to come out after every game and talk about his own situation," said Carragher in response to the Egypt international's comments, but one thing is for sure - the Liverpool manager will not want this situation to impact on the Reds' title challenge in any way.

Title-winning experience

While Liverpool can still field their entire title-winning defence from four years ago, as well as the likes of Curtis Jones and Salah further up field, none of their other first-team squad have any experience of winning the Premier League (although other players have won titles abroad).

Slot, also, has limited title-winning pedigree behind him, although he did guide Feyenoord to the Eredivisie crown in 2022-23 and as City have shown in recent seasons, and conversely Arsenal too, there is no substitute for having successfully got over that title-winning line.

The Reds, though, will hope that just as was the case five years ago, their winning momentum will carry them over that finish line come next May.