EFL play-offs: Is finishing third a good omen?
Friday 5 May 2017 18:24, UK
The end of season scramble for finishing positions before the EFL play-offs is underway.
With one match left to play, the four promotion contenders from the Sky Bet Championship have already assured their place in the end of season shootout. However, three of the four's final positions are not finalised - Reading (third), Sheffield Wednesday (fourth) and Huddersfield (fifth).
In League One, where the season finished on Sunday, Scunthorpe grabbed third, Fleetwood fourth, Bradford fifth and Millwall sixth.
The play-off picture in League Two is going down to the final day but Luton are all-but guaranteed third and Exeter should finish fourth. However, below those two, seven teams can still mathematically make the play-offs.
There is a cliche that the play-offs are unpredictable - akin to guessing the lottery numbers, but how true is that in actuality?
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Does finishing the season as the third best team prove a positive? Should teams - like in the Championship - be going all out to grab the top play-off spot?
Well, since the introduction of the play-offs in 1987, there is a positive skew of 38 per cent that the teams finishing in the top play-off place across the three divisions have been promoted.
Only 19 per cent of teams in the third play-off spot have been successful while those in second and fourth play-off places go up 21.5 per cent of the time.
The team that finishes third in the Championship should be buoyed by the fact that 36 per cent of the sides who have finished in that position have gone up.
In comparison, those finishing fourth (21.5 per cent), fifth (25 per cent) and sixth (18 per cent) have not fared as well.
In League One, the play-offs have proved more unpredictable but swing more in the favour of the team finishing seventh, which is good news for Millwall fans.
Teams in third have gone up 32.1 per cent of the time, a slightly better success rate than those in fourth (25 per cent), fifth (18.50 per cent) and sixth (22.20 per cent).
Luton Town will take hope from the fact that almost half (46.42 per cent) of the teams that have finished fourth in League Two have gone up through the play-offs.
Those in fifth (17.8 per cent), sixth (14.20 per cent) and seventh (21.4 per cent) have not enjoyed anywhere near as much success.
Who will win promotion this year from the play-offs? Watch all the games live on Sky Sports.
